Global Commodities: Is the 2025 US natural gas bullish trade over? - a podcast by J.P. Morgan

Speaker: 

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas Research

 

Calendar 2024’s quickly weakening price as a result of not only significant changes milder in weather forecasts but also lofty daily production prints kicked off the weakness in 2025 price. The speed and magnitude of the price move lower was primarily driven by investor positioning in a very crowded long 2025 trade which has likely been cleaned up this week. Despite adjustments to our LNG timeline following recent announcements and an end-Oct 2025 storage trajectory nearing 4.2 Tcf, we do not see a reason to give up on the bullish cal 25 narrative. Focus on the Southeast balance shows that even just the start of the Plaquemines natural gas facility could result in acute tightness in the region as stronger withdrawals and weaker net injections will likely support price in 2025.

 

This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.

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