How Long Recessions Last - a podcast by Derek Moore

It’s official, we reached a bear market in stocks. But when and how long will a pending recession last? How do you know an official recession has been declared?

 

 

What is a recession?

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

NBER vs GDP 2 quarters decline

Calculate GDP C + I + G + (X – M)

Annualizing GDP quarterly growth rate

Cyclical, Structural, or Event Driven Bear Markets

Supply Shocks vs Demand Shocks 

Recoveries: U Shaped vs. V Shaped vs. L Shaped

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode:

 

Percent change real GDP growth rates https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAI

 

Historical recessions from the NBER  https://www.nber.org/cycles.html

 

HBR Harvard Business Review economic shocks of coronavirus https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus

 

Forbes on bear markets https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/03/17/keep-calm-bear-markets-are-temporary/#388b279230ba

 

Podcast deconstructing GDP and Inflation  https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/broken-pie-chart/e/56922114

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

 

Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com

Further episodes of Broken Pie Chart

Further podcasts by Derek Moore

Website of Derek Moore