Episode 108 - Tesla threatens to leave CA | Saudi Austerity measures | Dean Foreman - a podcast by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald

Coronavirus cases in long-term care facilities
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html

Elon Musk threatens to move Tesla headquarters out of California following extended shelter-in-place rules
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/tech/elon-musk-tesla-threatens-california/index.html
- Calling California tyrant
- Potentially moving Factory and headquarters to Texas/Nevada
- Hidalgo county wants Tesla to move to its county because of existing auto manufacturing facilities

Saudi Arabia to slash June oil output by an extra 1 million bpd - ministry
https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN22N1OA

- troubling signs of impact in Saudi ARabia and Russia for impact of oil price drop
- Saudi Arabia increasing VAT from 5% to 15% and cutting spending
- political instability is a possibility
- what is Q2 going to show when signs are that Q1 is so bad

Wanted: Somewhere, Anywhere, to Store Lots of Cheap Oil
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wanted-somewhere-anywhere-to-store-lots-of-cheap-oil-11589207580?
- check out the “oil-storage bladders” for $65,000

Dr. Dean Foreman from API on the monthly statistical report:
- production is down significantly, the market is responding
- shut ins locally but demand side problem not a supply side problem
- gasoline demand: starting to see an uptick but 50% below what it should be: jet fuel is likely to lag but gasoline and diesel will pick up more quickly
- diesel is down but not that much because uptick in trucking due to shipping
- February and march people were driving more because not flying but with stay at home orders gasoline went down too
- 31 states gradually starting to reopen and in last 2 weeks seeing gasoline demand rise
- will we see gasoline demand increase this summer? Will people drive more to avoid flying or will driving decrease because people aren’t going anywhere?
- Gasoline exports: down but not down nearly as much as would have expected. Crude oil imports dropped.
- Refinery utilization for April at record low.
- Winter vs. Summer gasoline: trying to get waivers for use of winter gasoline into the summer because too much in storage. Usually have a 20-30 supply of gasoline but current supplies are much higher
- Refinery utilization is at 1985 levels - In 1985 there was a labor shock, not a demand shock like here is now.
- Imports dropped 3x as much as US exports - because of crackers and cokers we use in the United States
- Uncertainty over what you will get when you reopen a well that was shut-in early. May not be able to produce as much, productivity loss.
- Natural gas market: gas is in better position now even though it was a relatively warm winter
- Oklahoma proration hearing: mandate production quotas in a proportionate way, usually well-based not operator based. Tens to penalize most efficient wells.
- Economic indicators are factoring in the worst. Weekly data are showing a turn around. Economic expectations, with trillions of dollars of stimulus expecting lots of economic growth in 2021. Market could be short oil in Q4.

Further episodes of 301 Moved Permanently

Further podcasts by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald

Website of Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald