Episode 127 - Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease | Saudis Consider Canceling OPEC Plans to Boost Output | Dr. Dean Foreman with API - a podcast by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald
from 2020-10-13T06:25:06
US shale roundtable - https://gumroad.com/l/kFXTF
US-China roundtable - https://gumroad.com/l/zzpMP
20% off yearly War Room Newsletter - https://warroommedia.substack.com/20percentoff
Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-prices-fall-as-supply-concerns-ease-idUKKBN26X02D
- Norwegian workers strike a deal to return to work and Norway’s oil comes back online
- WTI reflects this, trading at around $39
- Rig counts have bottomed out and are starting to come up, but is this the start of the hill going back up or is rig count in the US plateauing. DUCs still sitting out there. Rigs count should help slow the price climb.
Saudis Consider Canceling OPEC Plans to Boost Output
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-consider-canceling-opec-plans-to-boost-output-11602174829
- Saudis considering walking back the OPEC+ planned 2 million bpd increase set for January
- Libyan oil coming back on the market complicates this
- If Biden wins the election assumption that Iranian oil will come back on the market, barrels visible on the market and new barrels added
Colonial Pipeline's Line 2 shut after Hurricane Delta
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-storm-delta-colonial-pipeline/colonial-pipelines-line-2-shut-after-hurricane-delta-company-idUKKBN26X011
Why Big Oil Should Vote for Joe Biden
https://news.yahoo.com/why-big-oil-vote-joe-110003063.html
- Big Oil loves regulation because it keeps the little producers from getting into the market
- What does Biden really believe?
- Would a Biden presidency advance climate lawsuits against big oil that could be a risk to these companies.
API Monthly Statistical Review
- Jet fuel roughly cut in half from last years levels
- regional gasoline consumption diverging. Deliveries to rural areas basically the same from august, no drop off. Consumption in urban areas decreased 7%
- Jet fuel - can it be converted to low sulfur ship fuel?
- September saw the smallest post-driving season drop off in petroleum deliveries since 2014. What’s different? People were driving less in 2014 because oil was $100/barrel.
- Post Gulf Coast Hurricane review: flooding in Lake Charles impacted Henry Hub and supply chain. Exports held up really well even though on some days ships didn’t move at all. China picked up its imports from the US. Capacity utilization - would have been better if hadn’t seen disruptions. Hard to get good read on Refining efficiency with the weather disruptions. But export capacity held up, which is positive internationally.
- Inventory dynamics - natural gas: futures market has said natural gas prices would rise. Natural gas prices has still been volatile despite futures market. Lower oil production assumption that less associated gas will mean higher natural gas prices.
= Inventory dynamics - crude oil: continue to back off from record levels. But total inventories set record highs. How do you get crude oil down? Products have to be up. Jet fuel is up, but diesel fuel also came down during the month. Behind the scenes is that 25% of petroleum demand is naphtha and other intermediate products being used in petrochemicals.
- Industry continues to see petrochemicals as an enduring source of growth.
- LNG prices around the world are starting to bounce back.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/10/08/on-fracking-senator-harris-wants-to-have-it-both-ways/#42e6ca7e2c4b
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/519959-managing-retirement-funds-means-prioritizing-their-growth-not-social-activism
Further episodes of 301 Moved Permanently
Further podcasts by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald
Website of Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald