Episode 152 - US&China work on climate change | India builds more coal plants | Dr. Dean Foreman API - a podcast by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald

Top official says asking China to do more on climate is "not very realistic"
https://www.axios.com/china-climate-change-226c9e50-243e-44e6-a4bf-e1fb1522bb19.html
Do we want to partner with China on how they regulate things at all?
China probably won’t institute what we can China to do on climate change?
China commits to peak emissions by 2030, which is totally unrealistic unless they totally stop manufacturing steel.
What about border adjustments for climate taxes

India may build new coal plants due to low cost despite climate change
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/exclusive-india-may-build-new-coal-plants-due-low-cost-despite-climate-change-2021-04-18/
75% of India’s annual power output comes from coal
In 2019 and 2020 coal’s contribution to electricity actually fell, but this trend doesn’t seem to be continuing.

Earthquake in southern Iran disrupts oil production: state media
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/041821-earthquake-in-southern-iran-disrupts-oil-production-state-media
Iran is now exporting over 1.5 million bpd of oil anyway, and they only want to get up to 2.3 million bpd
Could this earthquake impact that? Perhaps. What about the Vienna talks?
For more on Iranian oil situation, read: https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-lifting-sanctions-on-iran-might-have-unexpected-repurcussions-200573196

Historic oil glut amassed during the pandemic is almost gone
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/4/16/historic-oil-glut-amassed-during-the-pandemic-is-almost-gone
Is potential risk baked in?
Does this mean the price is over-inflated now?

Dr. Dean Foreman and API Monthly Statistical Report
- economic recovery driving demand NOT just seasonality
- especially rural gasoline demand picked up
- but rig activity hasn’t picked up nearly enough to EIA production estimate by the end of this year. EIA saying 900,000 bpd increase but not happening yet.
- What are the issues: lack of personnel, budgets already set, capital isn’t there
- Jet fuel: more cargo going by air than before but still lower due to lack of people traveling. But supply of jet fuel has gone way down to only 4% of a barrel of oil. Jet fuel has been converted.
- petrochemicals are still leading because demand for personal plastics and PPE is continuing. Still high. Usually its 25-27%, but now its up to 30%
- Propane also had a winter element to it
- Propane demand picked up over the winter but it’s ALSO a contributor to propalyne which is used to make medical plastics. Will it normalize?
- Propane distribution has been disrupted a big.
- Are we really back down to “normal” inventory? Well, it can be sketchy. API data says we’re still a little high on crude oil, especially with refining disruptions.
- We’re not back up to 85% refinery utilization which is really good.
- From a 5 year range perspective, US petroleum deliveries are at the top of the 5 year range, which is a very bullish sign. But weekly data have a lot of variation in them.
- Market could remain slightly short but as OPEC puts more barrels back on the market will cap prices. But resumption in US supply of 900,000 bpd by end of year is baked into this and might not happen. Will be lucky to meet half that, and if you don’t get 900,000 bpd, opens door for OPEC but also for higher prices given growth in world economy.
- Investment isn’t in place to meet demand next year.
- Breakeven estimates for Bakken and Denver have risen from $60 to $80 per barrel making them un-producable. State regulation and also impact of DAPL potentially being taken offline.
- Biden admin policies are “quietly tectonic”
- Tax provisions in infrastructure bill would put upward pressure on consumer gasoline prices.
- Sandwich of federal and state regulations could push prices up.

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