Episode 52 - Can Lybia hit 2.1 million bpd? | China cuts refinery quotas in 2019 | Is the WSJ right about the US Shale industry? - a podcast by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald

Libya is feeling VERY optimistic about its future oil production:
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/2019/01/07/Libya-plans-to-more-than-double-oil-output-to-2-1-million-bpd.html

Libya wants to expand its oil production beyond its pre-civil war levels

China cuts refinery quotas in 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil/china-cuts-refiners-oil-import-quotas-with-first-2019-allowances-idUSKCN1OW0NN

What's going on with China's demand? First half of 2019 demand is defiantly going to be down in the first half of 2019, but new petrochemical facilities and larger quotas could mean that oil demand from China might show a huge jump in the second half of 2019.

Shale oil wells aren’t producing as much as forecast
https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackings-secret-problemoil-wells-arent-producing-as-much-as-forecast-11546450162

Everyone missed the mark on forecasts. Is this a great problem for some companies more than others? The system is primed for these kind of inaccuracies. Should these companies make projections? ExxonMobil doesn't make projections, maybe none of these companies should make them.

Iran Sanctions and Bank of Kunlun in China
https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2019/1/2/policy-change-at-chinas-bank-of-kunlun-cuts-sanctions-lifeline-for-iranian-industry

Bank of Kunlun was very important in subverting sanctions the last time around but now will not subvert U.S. sanctions. This is significant because it does seem that the U.S. sanctions are being adhered to. Preliminary export numbers from TankerTrankers.com also show this.

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