Episode 61 - Strait of Hormuz | Trump and Oil | Oil Prices | Soho Forum's Gene Epstein - a podcast by Ryan Ray & Ellen Wald

The Soho Forum: www.sohoforum.org
Debate on climate change April 15!
Resolution: Carbon dioxide in atmosphere threat has been greatly exaggerated vs. climate change is a serious threat.

Mr. Epstein talks with Bob Murphy about his communist parents and debating: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-12-gene-epstein-on-commies-krugman-and-crushing-debaters/id1441789978?i=1000427879905&mt=2

Find Mr. Epistein on this year's Contra Cruise: http://www.tomwoodscruise.com/

Jet fuel? Will private space companies impact jet fuel demand? It could! But we need to know how much of jet fuel demand these companies make up.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omani-ports-give-u-s-navy-greater-control-over-strategic-waterway-near-iran-11553448471?

Tactical play. Extra level of security for a very significant water way to global oil trade. Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz isn’t a real threat, but U.S. having access to bases close by makes it obvious that the U.S. could counter any Iranian threat to the waterway.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/435437-oil-execs-boasted-of-unprecedented-access-to-admin-report?

What extra access could possibly help oil companies that the Trump administration wasn’t already going to help them with? Perhaps its more significant that these companies are part of the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), and are hoping to have better access that larger corporations like Exxon, Chevron.

Called top of the oil market and predicted that oil market would go below $30/barrel.

Market moves - we don’t really ever know what’s going on behind the scenes. Some rationals could just be what someone on the desk made up at the moment to have something to say.

Tend to interpret data as having finality of market close and that monthly data are approximations and change all the time. This happens a lot with monthly employment data, etc.

Commodities markets: how much is coming form big traders vs. small traders? How much comes from major companies trading? Big trading firms know that their moves impact the market so they may prefer to move gradually instead of abruptly because the reaction can be bad for their trades. Example of Mexico’s oil hedges - they aren’t doing the best job of it. Be careful of glib interpretations for why a market has moved. People don’t want to be transparent in the act of trading. Then you are acting against your own interests.

Should insider trading be illegal? Epstein argues that it shouldn’t be illegal. If your buying pressure bids up the market (based on information that isn’t public) you are actually helping those who are selling by pushing up the price. Likewise with those who are selling.

If its known that Aramco is trading on OPEC meetings, then traders may decide to stay out of the market as a result. Looking at positions of large hedge fund can basically show you where the inside information is. Can see where commitments of large hedge funds are and can take advantage of his. If an OPEC meeting is happening might be best to be out of the market or if you can figure out what Aramco is likely to do, might want to take that into account when it comes to trading strategy.

But Aramco could destroy the market - If its known that they are dominating the market it could push people out trading because Aramco (or other big traders) are controlling it. Could that actually be Aramco’s strategy? Is so, Epstein argues they are under a delusion that they can stabilize the market. Inherent volatility of oil market is based on inelasticities of demand. This is why commodity markets exist.

How should we think about economic indicators for global economy?
- sustained oil spikes (shocks) have at times been associated with downturns. Don’t anticipate that happening now, Next recession won’t be oil related.
- Recessions do impact price of oil.
- Right now, looking mostly at yield curve. 3 months interest rate moved above the 10 year interest rate. Inverted yield curve. In a normal yield curve the 3 month interest rate should be higher. When this happens it is one of the most reliable signs of a recession. Needs to be sustained for a bit longer to see recession. Could take a full year for a recession to occur. That, along with others, indicates there will at least be a slowdown in economic growth globally, though not necessarily a recession.
- Need to see if yield curve inversion continues for another month.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/03/14/why-the-new-aston-martin-ev-is-the-perfect-car-for-james-bond/

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