Podcasts by ING THINK aloud
THINK aloud is a podcast by ING Global Research hosted by Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne. Subscribe to hear expert analysis on the global economy, monetary policy, and financial markets, that you won't find anywhere else.
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FX Outlook 2024: The dollar's long goodbye from 2023-11-21T12:31:55
Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for long...
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Why oil prices will stay high and add to stagflation risk from 2023-10-06T10:04:10
The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market st...
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Central banks and the rate cut countdown from 2023-09-19T19:39:51
As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a rep...
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China is no 1990s Japan - but it could have been from 2023-08-03T12:21:25
As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the f...
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Shocking challenges: Electric vehicles face roadblocks ahead from 2023-07-27T19:42:39
Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught...
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There may be trouble ahead... for the UK from 2023-06-30T11:31:04
In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage co...
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Central banks, inflation and why the battle isn't over from 2023-06-13T14:42:15
In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chri...
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What the US debt ceiling drama means for the dollar from 2023-05-25T13:57:52
As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner di...
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Hiking into a banking crisis from 2023-05-05T10:44:53
As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak o...
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Emerging markets: Resilience amid uncertainty from 2023-04-19T11:08:15
With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, ...
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Constructive on credit from 2023-03-31T15:58:30
In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit marke...
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Price stability vs financial stability from 2023-03-23T14:50:11
In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.
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Higher for longer from 2023-03-10T14:06:13
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean...
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Ukraine war, one year on from 2023-02-24T12:51:42
One year after Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING’s Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turn...
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Are we there yet? from 2023-02-03T11:28:53
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and w...
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What to expect from commodity markets in 2023 from 2022-12-07T12:30:32
Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern t...
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COP27: A climate cop out? from 2022-11-17T16:52:12
The COP27 climate summit in Egypt was supposed to be the moment when governments turned lofty aspirations into real world action, implementing the climate pledges made in Glasgow last year. Inst...
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Listen: Rate hikes, recession, rate cuts from 2022-11-03T16:03:51
After four 75bp rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has signalled a slower pace of tightening ahead. But Chair Jerome Powell also warned that it is "very premature" to consider a pause and that r...
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Quid Game: UK markets live to fight another day from 2022-09-29T16:36:22
In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the UK government's fiscal policy, why it's sent markets into a tailspin and whether the Bank of England's interventio...
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Inflation, intervention and interest rates from 2022-09-15T14:08:57
In this week's THINK aloud, ING's Chris Turner, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest inflation data from the US and UK, the impli...
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ECB rate hikes won't change euro's trajectory from 2022-09-09T08:57:58
The European Central Bank cited the weak euro as one reason to raise interest rates by 75bp on Thursday - the most on record. But tighter monetary policy is unlikely to change the euro's course....
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Exceptional uncertainty from 2022-08-04T16:32:22
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bp on Thursday, the most in a quarter century, as inflation sits at a 40-year high. And despite forecasting a protracted recession amid an 'excepti...
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'Game changing' SEC climate rules at risk from 2022-07-28T15:45:44
The Securities and Exchange Commission's climate disclosure rules were controversial from the start. But a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court has cast further doubt on the regulator's ability...
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ECB: One more and done from 2022-07-22T11:53:47
The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week and left the door open for further hikes in a bid to combat the highest inflation on record. Bu...
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Can the Fed avoid a crash landing? from 2022-05-06T10:56:46
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the battle to contain inflation without triggering a recession will be "very challenging". In this podcast, ING's International Economist James Knight...
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Britain's cost of living crisis from 2022-03-23T20:13:23
The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the UK's cost of living crisis this year, with real disposable incomes set to drop by the most on record. In this podcast, ING economist James Smith discusses ...
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How the Russia-Ukraine crisis will reshape commodity markets from 2022-03-16T14:03:36
Global commodity markets have been swinging wildly since Russia invaded Ukraine, with everything from oil to wheat caught up in the crisis. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the ...
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The economic price of the war in Europe from 2022-03-04T12:46:39
Putin's invasion of Ukraine has dampened expectations for economic growth in Europe and raised forecasts for inflation, making life more difficult for the European Central Bank. In this podcast,...
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What the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for global FX markets from 2022-02-25T13:54:56
In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne reflect on a historic week that has shaken confidence and rocked financial markets around the world.
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Putting a price on carbon from 2022-01-26T10:17:17
Carbon markets have been hailed as a solution to climate change. But how do they work? Will they be effective in bringing emissions down to levels that the earth can sustain, or are they simply ...
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Bond yields: No time to die from 2021-12-17T09:26:29
The Federal Reserve is optimistic about US growth prospects next year, with policymakers now calling for three interest rate hikes in 2022. But the US bond market appears to be sending a rather ...
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Why Omicron is no game changer for Europe's growth outlook from 2021-12-09T18:00:37
The Omicron variant will hit economic growth in Europe over the coming months, but won't derail the recovery next year, according to ING's Carsten Brzeski, who remains optimistic about the regio...
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COP26: 'Pitifully inadequate' or 'truly historic'? from 2021-11-16T19:49:18
It's fair to say the COP26 climate agreement in Glasgow has received a mixed response. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal as "truly historic" and a "game changer" for the plan...
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A time to taper from 2021-11-04T19:22
To everything there is a season. And for the US Federal Reserve, this is a time to taper. But how significant is the move, when will interest rates rise, and are markets pricing this correctly? ...
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The UK's twin tightening gamble from 2021-10-28T19:01:16
Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the UK economy is recovering faster than its major competitors and public finances are stabilising. Economic growth for this year has been revised up to 6.5% from 4% ...
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What the Fed taper means for global FX markets from 2021-09-23T16:37:51
Financial markets have brushed off the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, as well as a liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer, Evergrande. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets, Ch...
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What Europe's inflation angst means for bonds from 2021-09-16T11:43:40
Inflation risks are rising in Europe. But will the region's bond markets take note? European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech this week that while much of the recent rise in ...
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The cost and credibility of Asia's climate goals from 2021-09-10T11:33:32
Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide. But ahead of the COP26 climate change talks in November, only a handful of Asian countries have made firm commitments to achieving a net-zer...
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What China's sweeping socialist reforms mean for the economy from 2021-09-02T14:38:08
China cracked down on the online gaming industry this week, the latest in a series of policies aimed at strengthening the public sector and reining in private enterprise. But the reforms&nb...
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What France's health pass really means for the economy from 2021-08-06T07:08:18
France's Covid health pass will be extended next week to a wider range of public venues including cafes and restaurants, as the government doubles down on efforts to contain a fourth wave of inf...
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Pains, Chains and Automobiles from 2021-07-28T08:58:47
The global car industry was forced to slam on the brakes this year, as a shortage of semiconductors hit production just as demand was starting to pick up. While the problem is expected to be tem...
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Alarm bells ring for emerging markets from 2021-07-16T09:52:05
Emerging markets have been resilient this year despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift in June and fresh lockdowns in some countries that threaten to derail the recovery. In this podcast, IN...
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OPEC vs OPEC: How the oil drama may unfold from 2021-07-09T12:09:11
OPEC+ called off its meeting this week without an agreement to increase oil supplies, sending Brent to a three-year high and WTI to levels not seen since 2014. Since then, prices have fallen bac...
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A "dangerous moment" for the Bank of England? from 2021-06-25T10:58:38
The Bank of England's outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane has sounded the alarm on inflation repeatedly this year and was the only MPC member to vote to reduce QE at this week's policy meeting...
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What the Fed's hawkish shift means for bonds from 2021-06-17T16:14:08
A hawkish Federal Reserve meeting has prompted investors to reassess the outlook for asset purchases and the timing of interest rate hikes. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey looks at the im...
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ECB avoids taper talk but for how long? from 2021-06-10T20:21:59
The European Central Bank said it is still too early to discuss reducing monetary stimulus, even as it raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next. In this podcast, ING's Ca...
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Why the Fed may be wrong about inflation from 2021-06-02T17:45:04
US inflation is rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Should we be worried? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses whether recent price rises are likely to be transitory as...
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A busy year for high yield from 2021-05-26T14:11:29
Our High Yield trading, strategy and syndicate teams take over this week's podcast for an informal conversation around year-to-date primary debt markets.
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The long and winding road to rate hikes from 2021-05-20T17:24:30
Hawks are growing louder at the US Federal Reserve. But with interest rate hikes still likely to be years away, the dollar is taking recent taper talk in stride. In this podcast, ING's Global He...
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Tense times in world trade from 2021-05-12T19:41:52
US-China relations have worsened under the Biden Administration, with both sides openly trading barbs and Trump-era trade tariffs remaining firmly in place. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economi...
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The economic impact of India's devastating second wave from 2021-04-29T11:18:30
India is in the grip of a particularly cruel second wave that is overwhelming hospitals and testing the endurance of a nation. In this podcast, ING's Prakash Sakpal looks at the latest developme...
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Why copper is the new black gold from 2021-04-23T11:44:03
Ambitious new targets for cutting carbon emissions and bold spending plans have fuelled optimism about the green revolution and helped to power a rally in the raw materials that will underpin th...
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Covid's East-West divide from 2021-04-15T15:41:35
In Asia, second and third waves of the coronavirus are raging in some countries, with India reporting more than 100,000 new cases a day over the past week. Yet the region overall has coped bette...
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Inequality threatens European cohesion from 2021-03-31T15:30:49
Far from being the 'Great Equaliser,' Covid-19 has magnified socio-economic differences across Europe, exposing fault lines both between and within countries. In this podcast, ING's Julien Mance...
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Europe's third wave woes from 2021-03-24T18:18:55
The European Commission is calling for tougher controls on vaccine exports, as the bloc struggles with a third wave of the virus and criticism over its handling of the vaccine rollout. The vacci...
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Money for Nothing from 2021-03-18T12:55:44
President Joe Biden says his $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan, for the first time, prioritises working- and middle-class Americans. But US household wealth has surged throughout the ...
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ECB steps up stimulus but is it enough? from 2021-03-11T20:24:21
The European Central Bank is stepping up the pace of asset purchases in response to rising bonds yields, which have threatened to undermine the eurozone’s economic recovery. German bund yields r...
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Dear Prudence from 2021-03-03T20:02
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going where few finance ministers have gone before in the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing future tax hikes to pay for relief measures. Those measures, which were exten...
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Gauging the ‘taper tantrum’ fallout from 2021-02-24T18:22:49
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a message to nervous bond markets this week: calm down. But are traders and investors listening? 10-year Treasury yields have continued thei...
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The rise and fall of voluntary social distancing from 2021-02-18T17:37:22
In economic terms, the second wave of the pandemic in Europe has been less severe than the first. Official lockdowns have been less harsh and more targeted, according to EU Economic Commissioner...
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Inflation Blues from 2021-02-10T17:23:42
It gave B.B. King the blues. And Larry Summers is getting worried abou...
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Emerging markets' vaccine challenge from 2021-02-04T18:47:47
The World Health Organization says vaccine hoarding would be a catastrophic moral failure that would keep the pandemic burning and result in a very slow global economic recovery. Yet many emergi...
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Risky business: Credit markets are 'very expensive' from 2021-01-29T14:18:11
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that the Bank is monitoring the corporate bond market, where spreads have narrowed to levels seen before the pandemic and yields on som...
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'21 is going to be a good year (for commodities) from 2021-01-18T18:11:25
Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in ...
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Hope springs eternal from 2021-01-07T15:01:13
With a new variant of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across the UK, schools, non-essential retail, pubs and restaurants have been forced to shut until the middle of February, when priority...
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Betting on a Brexit deal from 2020-12-15T16:56:11
With just two weeks to go before the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen still haven’t agreed on the t...
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Don't worry about the debt, yet from 2020-11-26T07:16:52
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid the groundwork for tackling Britain's unprecedented surge in borrowing, which is set to hit a peacetime record of almost £400 billion this year. But ...
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What a Biden economy might look like from 2020-11-12T19:10:42
President-elect Joe Biden says the Trump administration’s refusal to concede the election will not affect the transition of power. But could this lack of cooperation be a harbinger of things to ...
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How the US presidential election could impact Europe from 2020-10-21T17:38:02
President Trump's 'America First' policy has been criticised by rival Joe Biden as an isolationist strategy that has left America alone in the world, turning former allies into adversaries. The ...
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Europe's second wave sends recovery into reverse from 2020-10-15T10:29:49
New lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus in Europe are threatening to plunge the region back into recession after a brief respite over the summer, while disputes among policymakers ...
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Riskier road ahead from 2020-10-07T10:17:53
With more Americans than ever voting by mail in the November election, and President Trump's warning that the final outcome may not be known for months, the spectre of a delayed result is still ...
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What a Covid resurgence means for oil from 2020-09-24T15:41:08
A recent increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and new lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus have sparked concern that demand for oil could be hit at a time when supply is picking...
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Emerging from Covid-19 from 2020-09-17T19:07:34
The Covid-19 pandemic has ripped through the developing world this year with particular cruelty and ferocity, upending lives and livelihoods on a scale never seen before. But in markets, at...
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No deal Brexit is no 'cliff edge' for the UK economy (but it won't help) from 2020-09-10T16:40:25
The UK government has changed some of the provisions in its divorce agreement with the EU, putting strain on already tense relations with the bloc and threatening to undermine a trade deal. In r...
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The Fed, the dollar and the asset bubble from 2020-09-03T18:21:39
Is the Federal Reserve encouraging a stock market bubble? Critics say a recent change to the central bank's policy framework has undesirable side effects and puts the dollar at risk. Fed member ...
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How the economy could shape the US Presidential election from 2020-08-26T17:54:30
With less than 10 weeks to go until the US election, President Trump continues to trail Democrat rival Joe Biden in the polls. But the race is far from over. In this podcast, ING's James Kn...
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End of job retention schemes risks recession in Europe from 2020-08-20T08:23:42
Many short-time work schemes in Europe are set to end at the turn of the year, suggesting the unemployment rate will finally start to reflect some of the huge economic damage caused by Covid-19....
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Stocks vs bonds: Who's right? from 2020-07-30T19:33:52
Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, warned explicitly that the economic recovery in the US will depend on the path of Covid-19, perhaps in an effort to provide a dose of realism to buoyant ...
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'Pivotal' EU summit is no panacea from 2020-07-22T12:48:45
EU leaders have agreed to issue common debt and hand it out as grants to struggling member states, in a move that some have compared to Alexander Hamilton's decision to federalise US debt. In th...
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China’s multi-front economic battle post Covid-19 from 2020-07-16T12:48:02
China’s economy is growing again. But so, too, is global pressure. The US officially rescinded Hong Kong’s special status this week while the UK is banning Huawei from its 5G network. Meanwhile,...
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The UK's profound economic challenge from 2020-07-09T10:49:46
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid out the next phase in the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, as the economy reopens after a three-month lockdown and the worst slump in 300 years....
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Brazil's Covid crisis from 2020-07-02T21:24:14
With 1.4 million coronavirus cases and over 60,000 deaths, Brazil now ranks as the second worst hit country in the world after the United States. But while the political response to the crisis h...
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Why markets are shrugging off Covid-19 from 2020-06-25T18:32:52
Covid-19 cases are still rising in the US. But so, too, are financial markets. The S&P 500 is on track for one of its best quarters ever while the Nasdaq recently hit a record high and the s...
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Will Climate Action Survive Covid-19? from 2020-06-18T16:40:30
It was supposed to be the defining year of Climate Action. But the Covid-19 pandemic and economic destruction left in its wake have created an even more pressing emergency and some fear that cli...
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Fractured Europe: Why the South will struggle to recover from Covid-19 from 2020-06-10T19:28:59
More severe lockdowns, weaker safety nets, smaller emergency spending programmes and structural challenges pose grave risks to the economic recovery in Southern Europe. In this podcast, ING's Se...
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US election 2020: Biden - His Time? from 2020-06-04T16:01:22
Mass protests over the police killing of George Floyd, 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented economic downturn, and 40 million Americans out of work. Rarely has an elect...
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Car ownership and car sharing in a post-Covid world from 2020-05-20T18:17:45
The coronavirus, and associated lockdowns around the world, have upended all sectors of the global economy. But the car industry, which was already struggling before the pandemic, has been parti...
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Digital currencies: 'Total scam' or moving into the mainstream? from 2020-05-13T16:31:33
Lebanese protestors held a mock funeral for their local currency earlier this month after a financial crisis, exacerbated by the coronavirus, sent it into a tailspin. With other emerging markets...
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Lockdown lessons from Asia from 2020-05-06T18:14:02
As the US and UK move to ease lockdown measures, we look to countries that have already emerged from quarantine for clues about what to expect in the weeks ahead. In this podcast, ING's Head of ...
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Fallen angels: The devil in disguise? from 2020-04-30T19:14:44
Unlike the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank has not yet discussed adding junk bonds to its asset purchase programme. But President Christine Lagarde has signalled that this option rema...
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Why the Great Oil Crash may not be over from 2020-04-23T14:32:10
Global oil prices have recovered some ground after tanking this week to historic lows. But the outlook for crude still looks bleak. In this podcast, ING's Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Pat...
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Covid-19 and the future of the euro project from 2020-04-16T06:16:40
European finance ministers have agreed on a €540 billion package of support for the Eurozone. But the thorny issue of debt sharing remains unresolved. Can the euro project survive without it? In...
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Britain's economic challenges build, despite bold stimulus from 2020-04-09T07:12:20
The hospitalisation of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson adds another layer of uncertainty to the British economy, which is already suffering from an almost complete shutdown of activity. In this ...
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Covid-19: The lockdown, the recession, the recovery from 2020-04-02T12:51:51
President Trump extends social distancing in the US until the end of April. But like other countries around the globe, the move to limit the spread of the virus will come at a severe economic co...
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Counting the economic cost of the coronavirus from 2020-02-10T13:20:27
After an initial panic in financial markets, signs of stability have started to emerge. There's hope the coronavirus will be contained and that stimulus measures will mitigate the economic damag...
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Why US GDP is routinely mis-measured from 2019-11-08T14:00:14
Gross domestic product is a deeply flawed measure of economic growth. In fact, a new ING report claims that US GDP is consistently understated by 0.75% while inflation is overstated by 0.4%. In ...
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Brexit and the battle to stop 'no deal' from 2019-08-30T14:23:36
Time is running out for UK lawmakers to stop a 'no deal' Brexit on October 31. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne speaks with ING economist James Smith about the o...
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Three central banks, three different strategies from 2019-08-09T16:48:08
Three central banks, three quite different strategies. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne explores where interest rates are heading next
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