Podcasts by Eurodollar University
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
Further podcasts by Jeff Snider, Emil Kalinowski
Podcast on the topic Geldanlage
All episodes
While Everyone’s Focused On CPI - The Oil Market Just Did This from 2023-12-13T07:00
New multi-month low in oil, multi-year low in gasoline. Big turn into more contango for WTI futures. Energy sector completely overshadows US CPI for November even as energy prices are one key re...
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It's Happening Again... from 2023-12-12T07:00
What's bothering bonds? Several key issues starting with how everything about China is going wrong right now. The country just reported a sizable acceleration in deflation, both consumer and pro...
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“This Has Been Inevitable” (With Macro Alf) from 2023-12-11T09:35:02
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The bond market scares many...
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BREAKING Payroll Report Goes Viral from 2023-12-10T07:00
November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft lan...
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Did This Change The Stock Market Forever? from 2023-12-08T07:00
Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or ...
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It Was Only A Matter Of Time...But It Finally Happened from 2023-12-07T07:00
Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, ...
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Things Are Getting REALLY Serious Now from 2023-12-06T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
More big moves in the markets inc...
Global Markets are Preparing for Something MASSIVE, But What? from 2023-12-05T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe
Wild trading last week w...
Holy Sh*t! The Fed Just Admitted We Are In A Recession from 2023-12-04T10:26:08
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
Recent Federal Reserve report cl...
Can The Government Keep Spending Money Forever?! from 2023-12-03T12:22:31
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt
Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on muc...
China Is Showing Us Where The Global Economy Will Go Next from 2023-12-01T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china
The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's g...
Bonds Across The World Are All Signaling The Exact Same Thing from 2023-11-30T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japan
Interest rates all over the world ...
Banks Around The World Are Preparing For Something BIG from 2023-11-29T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe
Banks all over the world are preparing f...
It's STARTING! Global Bank Liquidity Is Drying Up FAST from 2023-11-28T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity
Over the last several weeks there have been concerning developmen...
The Truth About Federal Reserve Cuts: George Gammon&Jeff Snider from 2023-11-28T00:25:24
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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NEW Central Bank Report Reveals What's Coming from 2023-11-26T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan
The balance is shifting more decisively, both in the ...
Soft Landing vs Hard Landing ALL Comes Down To This from 2023-11-25T12:58:08
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan
Soft landing vs. hard landing isn't really hard. It a...
The Most Obvious Recession Concern Is Now Getting Really Concerning from 2023-11-23T11:42:21
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline
Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmo...
We NEED To Discuss The Bond Market ASAP from 2023-11-22T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #japan #collateral
Bond market is getting wild. Big moves in a lot places...
If Central Banks Controlled Interest Rates Then Explain THIS from 2023-11-21T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis
Any amateur (like me) with a passing interest in economics knows the stor...
Oh Sh*t... This Just Happened from 2023-11-20T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #oil #gasoline #cisco #walmart
From Cisco to Walmart, bonds to oil. Don't call it a c...
THIS Will Show You Where Interest Rates Are Going Next from 2023-11-19T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy
The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely mispl...
Walmart Just Came Out With a MAJOR Warning from 2023-11-17T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #walmart
Walmart makes a major warning. Jobless claims spike. Oil (and gas) p...
You Won't Believe How Bonds Reacted to the CPI (What This Means) from 2023-11-15T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi
Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer ...
It's STARTING, This Just Became Global from 2023-11-15T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #china #europe
Bond yields dropping again. Oil curve back in contango. Is the...
It's STARTING! The Fed Just Went To War With Bonds from 2023-11-14T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates
They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last w...
“One Of The Worst Bear Markets In History Already Happened” Michael Green from 2023-11-13T07:00
#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash
The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subsc...
HOLY SH*T! China's Banking System Just... from 2023-11-12T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #china #banks
China's repo market nearly freezes up at the end...
Why Is The Fed LYING About This from 2023-11-10T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity
Are interest rates going back up, or not? According to many Ec...
BREAKING: A Global Recession Is Starting from 2023-11-09T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline #europe #germany #crash
Oil market selloff is p...
This Confirms Everything from 2023-11-08T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline
Oil and gasoline prices are falling fast. Whil...
Hedge Funds Have Made Billions From This (This Could Get Ugly) from 2023-11-07T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity
Regulators are almost feuding with hedge fund "speculators" ov...
Everyone Gets This Wrong About Interest Rates And The Stock Market from 2023-11-06T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
Blackrock official says stocks a...
It's Official: The Recession Just Started from 2023-11-05T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
The last thing standing in the w...
Is The Yield Curve About to Un-invert? What Would That Mean? from 2023-11-03T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve
The Fed indicated it may ...
Druckenmiller Sounds URGENT Warning To ALL Investors from 2023-11-02T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve #ecb
Hedge fund manager ...
Oh SH*T! This is getting REALLY Serious from 2023-11-01T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #china #yuan #purge
There appears to be an honest-to-...
How The Dollar Will Actually Get Dethroned (Brent Johnson) from 2023-11-01T00:01:38
To watch the full video, check it out at https://www.eurodollar.university
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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IT'S STARTING: This Could Have HUGE Global Implications from 2023-10-31T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #jobs #europe #germany #yieldcurve
Is the bond sellof...
Oh… So THIS Is What They Kept Hidden From Us from 2023-10-30T07:00
Consumer price numbers have come back during the summer. Since US GDP was up big in Q3, quite a few seem concerned this could mark the beginning of a second "inflationary" phase. But underneath ...
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Holy Sh*t! New Data Reveals Everything from 2023-10-29T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve #income #jobs
The 2-year US Tre...
We Need To Discuss The New GDP Data IMMEDIATELY from 2023-10-27T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve
US GDP surged in Q3 as the econ...
The Secret $15 Trillion Asset Shaping The Global from 2023-10-26T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve
We've been getting major collat...
Wall Street Insiders Are Making HUGE Moves from 2023-10-25T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo #yieldcurve
All of a sudden, two of the big...
HOLY SH*T! Swap Spreads Just... from 2023-10-24T11:16:10
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo
I've been talking about swap spreads for th...
We Need To Discuss The New Repo Market Data ASAP from 2023-10-22T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral #repo
Something big is going on under the surface ...
The Monetary System: Something HUGE Changed in July from 2023-10-20T07:00
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China Just Shocked The World With This Move from 2023-10-19T07:00
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The Hidden Indicators EVERY INVESTOR Should Watch Out For from 2023-10-18T07:00
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Did Jamie Dimon Just Play His Trump Card?! from 2023-10-17T07:00
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The World Isn't Ready for What Happened In CHINA from 2023-10-16T07:00
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The Hidden Crisis Caused by Middle East Conflicts from 2023-10-15T07:00
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Great Depression vs Today: What They NEVER Wanted You to Know from 2023-10-14T22:43
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YOU Won't Believe China's New Plan from 2023-10-12T07:00
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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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We Have Been Lied To... from 2023-10-11T07:00
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar
Everyone wants to know why LT rates are going higher. Is it th...
This Could Freeze The Entire Global Collateral Market... from 2023-10-10T07:00
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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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HOLY SH*T: THE BOND MARKET IS... from 2023-10-09T07:00
Are we watching the "right" spot on the yield curve? It's understandable why everyone would be fixated on the 10-year benchmark or the long bond. However, all the reasons you've heard for why th...
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The Hidden Truth Behind The New Job Report Revealed from 2023-10-08T07:00
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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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What Is The Eurodollar System? (Must Know) from 2023-10-06T07:00
#eurodollar #money #banks #interestrates #depression #recession #inflation #dollar
What is a eurodollar? The answer to that question is far more complicated than you've ever heard and have b...
This kills the economy 8.4/10 times... from 2023-10-05T07:00
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#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dolla...
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Job Market: The Shocking Truth (It's Not What You Think!) from 2023-10-04T07:00
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If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out...
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HOLY SH*T! The Collateral Markets Are Starting to Freeze from 2023-10-03T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inf...
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So... This Was a Lie? from 2023-10-02T07:00
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#eurodollar #germany #europe #recession #interestr...
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New Data Shows Dark Reality For Americans from 2023-10-01T07:00
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#hungry #recession #interestrates #recession #rece...
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HOLY SH*T! Is This For Real from 2023-09-29T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inf...
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Oh No, This Always Happens Right Before a Crisis from 2023-09-28T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inf...
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We Need To Address This Immediately from 2023-09-27T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inf...
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This Just Made China a Threat To The Global Economy from 2023-09-26T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inf...
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BREAKING: New Economic Data Shocks the World from 2023-09-25T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inf...
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Global Banking Cartel That Prints Trillions Of Dollars (Exposed) from 2023-09-24T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #infl...
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Banks Might Not Survive This... from 2023-09-22T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #infl...
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WARNING! Another Economic Time Bomb Just Exploded from 2023-09-21T07:00
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #infl...
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Will Bitcoin Replace the Dollar from 2023-09-20T07:00
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dolla...
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BREAKING: You Won't Believe China's New Data from 2023-09-19T11:11:59
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dolla...
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Well Sh*t... It's Officially the Worst EVER! from 2023-09-18T07:00
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#mo...
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The European effect from 2023-09-17T07:00
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Shocking Bond Reactions After CPI Report from 2023-09-15T07:00
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dolla...
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WARNING: The Banking Crisis Is NOT Over from 2023-09-13T09:25:41
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dolla...
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The Consumer is Now Worse Than the Great Depression from 2023-09-12T07:00
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #e...
The U.S Is In SERIOUS Trouble from 2023-09-11T07:57:20
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China's downfall from 2023-09-10T07:00
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The Mysterious Book of the Federal Reserve from 2023-09-09T07:00
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"If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here."
#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #do...
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They Really Did it from 2023-09-08T07:00
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #do...
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This Will Be Worldwide Within 29 days from 2023-09-07T19:00
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"If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here."
#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #do...
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This is the ONLY Stock Market I watch (Secrets Revealed) from 2023-09-06T07:00
#recession #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #hongkong #china #japan #stocks #dollar #yuan #yen
Hong Kong's Hang Seng stock index correlates ...
The Job Market Actually BROKE from 2023-09-04T14:31:46
#recession #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #unemployment #interestrates #jobs
Payrolls numbers were all messed up. Household Survey, too, if not more. Mo...
Did China JUST Trigger GFC 2.0!! from 2023-09-03T07:00
#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #china #yuan
Another crazy coup...
Where is The Recession EVERYONE Is Talking About? from 2023-09-01T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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Why Is This ALL Happening? from 2023-08-31T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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This Is WHY the Fed Is RIGHT from 2023-08-30T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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Jerome Powell's Most Important Statement EVER from 2023-08-29T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money...
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OMG: The global Bond Market just… from 2023-08-29T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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Is The Banking System Starting To Break? from 2023-08-27T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar ...
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I've Got Bad News For Employees from 2023-08-25T07:00
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#recession #depression #infla...
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When WIll It END? from 2023-08-22T09:03:30
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We HAVE To Talk About the Bond Market!! from 2023-08-18T07:00
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #...
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What Do We Do NOW?! from 2023-08-17T07:00
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Last few days o...
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This Is Getting Scary... China Is Getting WAY WORSE Than Expected from 2023-08-16T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #china #yuan #rmb #cny #japan #jpy #y...
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The Dollar Is Starting To MOVE... What This Means For YOU from 2023-08-15T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #china #yuan #rmb #cny #india #rupee ...
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The word is: LIQUIDITY. from 2023-08-14T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #loans #CRE #commercialrealestate #CM...
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This Is WORSE Than We FEARED from 2023-08-13T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #china #lending #yuan #rmb #cny #loan...
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There is MORE Coming... from 2023-08-11T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity
Another thoroughly disinflationar...
This Day STOPPED The World: August 9th 2007 from 2023-08-10T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity
August 9, 2007, is a date that sh...
China's NEW World-Altering Decision from 2023-08-09T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #china #trade
Just plain ugliness from China today, first wi...
It Will ALL Be Over In 2024 from 2023-08-08T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment
The second half of 2023 just...
What is Inflation? What EVERYONE Gets WRONG from 2023-08-07T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment #supplyshock
People hate the ...
It Just Happened...The JOB MARKET JUST BROKE!! from 2023-08-06T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment
Payroll report for July wasn...
BREAKING NEWS SHOWS 77.6% Of US Job Market is IN DANGER from 2023-08-04T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider
Popular perception suggests services industries are insulate...
PREPARE for this $1.7 TRILLION EXPLOSION! from 2023-08-03T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #oil #gasoline #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #treasury #debt
Fitch downgrades US governmen...
It's about to go off. from 2023-08-02T07:00
#deflation #recession #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse #china #layoffs #jobs
Stocks are having a really good run, but why? Perceptions th...
What just happened? from 2023-08-01T07:00
#yellow #deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse #china
O...
This should NOT be happening. from 2023-07-31T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse
In July 2019, F...
NEED ANYMORE PROOF?! from 2023-07-30T07:00
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse
The Goldilocks ...
This Is PROOF They Are Lying To Us!! from 2023-07-28T07:00
#recession #inflation #china #deflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #economy #credit
#jeffsnider #eurodollar #cpi #federalreserve #jeromepowell
The ECB and Fed have hiked rates wh...
We Have To discuss this IMMEDIATELY. from 2023-07-27T07:00
#china #europe #eurodollar #interestrates #lending #deflation #inflation
Bank lending continues to contract in Europe as demand for loans there have plummeted to the worst in ECB's history (...
Authorities realize the situation is beyond critical, but what else can they do? from 2023-07-26T07:00
#dollar #cny #currency #deflation #recession #china
China's PBOC FX interventions by themselves aren't having much luck which is why the central bank has directed commercial banks to assist,...
Latest global data paints even uglier picture of substantial deterioration and deflation. from 2023-07-25T07:00
#recession #manufacturing #services #globaleconomy #deflation #inflation
With Germany and Europe already struggling to escape from the earlier recession, most recent July data on forward-loo...
Market strategists get cold feet at the worst possible time. from 2023-07-24T07:00
#interestrates #inflation #deflation #recession #inversion #ratehikes
A slew of Wall Street types are getting impatient - and cold feet - waiting for a recession they're not sure is happenin...
BRICS plan to remake the world order. from 2023-07-23T07:00
#dollar #brics #gold #currency #money #eurodollar
Next month, the BRICS summit is going to introduce a new common currency and one backed by gold. Or is it? Before it even begins, the group ...
We aren't supposed to say the R-word but that's what we keep finding in big ways and small. from 2023-07-21T07:00
#recession #inflation #deflation #taiwan #semiconductor #apple
Taiwan Semiconductor reported pretty awful results blaming the global macroeconomic environment, specifically singling out inve...
It has all been an illusion and now the brutal truth is being uncovered. from 2023-07-20T07:00
#recession #china #germany #trade #export #deflation #bonds
Germany reported trade data exposing the resilient economy fallacy as a product of nothing more than the temporary nominal price i...
Over a hundred years of data and very few exceptions. from 2023-07-19T07:00
#recession #deflation #inflation #retailsales #industrial #consumer
US Industrial Production fell for the second month in a row, dropping the Fed's index below the same period a year ago. A ...
Latest data deluge confirms real dangers and accelerating downside. from 2023-07-18T07:00
#china #recession #inflation #deflation #industrial #spending #money
China's GDP report as well as its monthly statistics confirm first reopening isn't just completely dead, instead the enti...
U.S. Has Fallen: Even a top food producer is reporting deflationary conditions. from 2023-07-17T07:00
#recession #inflation #deflation #globaltrade #india #credit #bank
India reported a huge drop in exports, one of its worst on record. A major US food producer says demand has worsened to the ...
Individuals run out of money; can't pay taxes. from 2023-07-16T00:56:38
#recession #inflation #deflation #taxes #employment #unemployment
Individual income tax payments to Uncle Sam are running almost half a trillion (with a "T") behind same months in FY 2022. Wi...
US prices down by the most on record and Chinese trade nearly that bad. from 2023-07-15T07:00
Great Inflation 2, or soft landing? Those are the only two choices we're given for #inflation #deflation #recession when neither of those was ever likely. The reasons why the soft landing isn't ...
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The dollar is up to is economy-wrecking ways again. from 2023-07-13T07:00
The Chinese aren't taking their #eurodollar #dollar woes weakening yuan lying down #recession. But they aren't doing a whole lot meaningful about it, either. Why and why not? That's the (euro)do...
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And with credit now outright falling for them, it only gets much worse from here. from 2023-07-12T07:00
#Consumer #spending is down already and now we're getting data which shows by how much, #recession. There's no #inflation here. Disney theme parks are empty, consumer #credit is actually contrac...
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World's biggest economies aren't just struggling, they're sinking fast. from 2023-07-11T07:00
China reported some of the worst #inflation consumer and producer price estimates in its modern history, within range of the worst parts of 2009. Such damaging #deflation shows #globalrecession ...
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Where did it all go? It was all a lie. from 2023-07-10T07:00
It's the greatest story no one wants to tell. Money printing. Inflation. Deflation. Interest rates. Crash. The Fed. What is QT? What was QE really? They're all lies and you don't have to take m...
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Catastrophic results for Japan and the US credit crunch gets much worse. from 2023-07-09T07:00
Saudi Arabia extended its #oil production cuts for another month. Given what the Japanese reported for #income, not hard to see why #recession Plus, US bank #credit crunch accelerated at the end...
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What could possibly go wrong? from 2023-07-07T07:00
Central banks want rates to go up but markets have largely resisted. Upping the ante, the FOMC admits there's going to be a recession but claims it will raise its rates anyway. As a result, this...
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Getting out of control: another key CORE number absolutely tumbled. from 2023-07-06T07:00
Central banks have said inflation risks are all in core price numbers. Here's yet another core instead deeply in deflation, so bad it fell at a rate we haven't seen since the worst part of the G...
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A decision has collectively been made on the second half rebound. from 2023-07-04T07:00
The manufacturing recession has reached its critical point where producers have to decide to keep workers or start laying them off. Unemployment is now rising because the second half economic re...
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Federal authorities freaking out trying to limit the fallout. from 2023-07-03T07:00
Federal bank regulators are issuing guidance to banks to do everything they can potentially limit any credit losses. With recession bearing down and loan portfolios exhibiting initial signs of m...
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Global recession has reached a new phase. from 2023-07-02T07:00
Despite stubborn core inflation rates in the US and Europe, each economy is exhibiting more and more definite signs of recession and deflation. Unemployment is up in Europe's biggest economies a...
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We don't need even close to these adverse scenarios to cause major havoc. from 2023-06-30T07:00
While Q1 GDP was revised higher for the US, that's looking back at what is now ancient history. Looking ahead at Q2 and beyond, not just recession perhaps worse in huge part because of what's be...
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The outlook worsens across-the-board with banks heading for the exits. from 2023-06-29T07:00
The deflation and banking crisis which really began last fall that has now become a full-blown credit crunch and recession was far more about collateral shortages than anything else. It sure was...
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Major dollar crisis brewing in Asia threatening world's monetary system and economy. from 2023-06-28T07:00
China's yuan currency has been incredibly weak to the point authorities in Beijing have been unable to successfully intervene against the dollar. It spells worldwide trouble given falling CNY is...
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Banks around the world are taking defensive measures which only means bigger trouble ahead. from 2023-06-27T07:00
The global economy is accelerating to the downside into more than just a short, shallow recession. It is instead sped along in the deflationary direction by the fallout from the March banking cr...
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More alarming reports of business going dark all over the economy. from 2023-06-26T07:00
Economic conditions have worsened recently indicating the economy shifting gears from shallow downturn to full-blown recession. With new sales sinking, companies all over are ready to face their...
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Europe, China, even the US. Latest figures show things are really getting ugly. from 2023-06-25T07:00
The global economy has turned a corner, and not in a good (or inflation) way. Widespread ugly data and market positioning strongly suggest the deflationary recession is accelerating to the downs...
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Once is random, twice is coincidence, here's three and we have something. from 2023-06-23T07:00
Three more global central banks hiked interest rates despite even more determined recession signals here and abroad. Here we see just why they continue to act as if inflation is the world's bigg...
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A simple equality explains the growing mess. from 2023-06-22T07:00
#China yuan keeps plummeting to new lows as #deflation and #recession collide in growing global #dollar shortage. Yet, Jay Powell tells Congress he's more worried about #inflation even though th...
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Troubling new low develops as this crucial market accelerates to the downside. from 2023-06-21T07:00
Central banks want #interestrates to go up if only to convince you they're fighting #inflation, when #deflation is keeping a lid on those and even pushing some market #yields lower. One that is ...
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Out of options and bracing for impact, Chinese authorities ready for more failure. from 2023-06-20T07:00
China's government failed to deliver concrete "stimulus" plans because authorities are conflicted. In the absence of any good ideas for combatting deflationary recession, they'll issue more rate...
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Rate hikers fear another 1978 even as 2008 comparisons get louder by the week. from 2023-06-19T07:00
#interestrates hikers and #centralbank hawks ignore failed #banks in favor of wages, Phillips Curve, and #inflation expectations. They believe the #economy has gone retro and we're stuck in 1978...
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Another pair join globally synchronized as it continues to spread around the world. from 2023-06-18T07:00
Following the alarming data from China, New Zealand confirms it is has succumbed to #recession while Australia's yield curve inverted for first time since 2008. Central banks continue to focus o...
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It's not just the massive downside also the speed at which it has developed. from 2023-06-16T07:00
The #federalreserve is pausing while the ECB is aggressively hiking #interestrates all at the same time the People's Bank of #china is cutting theirs. What is going on with the global #economy? ...
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Conflicted Fed stuck btw rapidly disappearing inflation&bank crisis already reappearing. from 2023-06-15T07:00
The #FOMC #federalreserve decided against another #ratehike today, instead choosing not to choose. Some officials insist #inflation is the biggest risk but apparently not enough to act right now...
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Now nine with today's US CPI. Worse, China's credit system is in a freefall scaring Beijing. from 2023-06-14T07:00
#Deflation #recession shows up in both the US #CPI and #China's credit system during the same month. This isn't random coincidence, rather the effects of the global downturn speeding up and taki...
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Stock crash and bank failures, yet there wasn't a second Great Depression. But why not? from 2023-06-13T07:00
Are #stocks a useful indicator of #recession? How about #depression? If they were, they can't explain how there wasn't a Great Depression 2 in the late 80s. After all, there were hundreds of #ba...
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Key data shows the situation is critical and it keeps coming in worse, not better. from 2023-06-12T07:00
Crisis borrowing at the Fed's emergency BTFP surged this week to a new high as #bankingcrisis grows critical. We're seeing more and more signs of serious #creditcrunch which, if it continues lik...
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Prices aren't just falling at a faster rate there, world's second economy is now falling apart. from 2023-06-11T07:00
Both producer and consumer prices in #china fell again in the month of May as global #recession continues to hammer the Chinese economy. Though central banks see only #inflation risks, the #defl...
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The last seasonal low point for liquidity unleashed the first wave of the banking crisis. from 2023-06-09T07:00
The global #dollar system is at its weakest point at these specific calendar spots, most susceptible to #collateral problems causing #deflation in #money. With the #bank crisis still raging unde...
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First mistake is being impatient with a banking crisis. Second is not paying attention to China. from 2023-06-08T07:00
Central banks in Australia and Canada ended their short #ratehikes #interestrates pause, ignoring the global #recession risks China just reminded everyone about for their own #inflation biases. ...
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This is not some future problem. It is happening right now. from 2023-06-07T07:00
We can actually see #deflation right now in the form of falling producer prices. Europe reported a record drop in its PPI which has major implications starting with #recession and what this mean...
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Global resignation: we've finally reached the point where very nearly everything is giving in. from 2023-06-06T22:26:31
Deflation and recession are everywhere. Almost. Of the few holdouts, only some of the US labor data starting with the least serious of the accounts. Apart from it, markets and macro are almost c...
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Desperate act confirms global recession conditions. from 2023-06-06T07:00
Saudis try for #oilpricehike but #oil runs instead into unmovable #recession. The real #economy continues to weaken which means demand is dominating market factors, not supply. Confirming the oi...
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The global market crash everyone sees but no one wants to talk about. from 2023-06-05T07:00
#realestate and property #assetbubble across the world is going bust risking a renewed #bankcrisis plus #recession the US. The situation in #China with developers rather than turning around is c...
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This doesn't fit at all with what everyone is saying about jobs and the economy. from 2023-06-04T14:58:49
Payroll report (CES) shows steady growth in top-line jobs though anything but everywhere else. Hours are being outright cut while employment (CPS) was down big with economic recession ramping up...
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Another crucial milestone you shouldn't miss. from 2023-06-02T07:00
Inflation pressures are disappearing as deflation and recession conditions continue to take over. The Federal Reserve won't be able to keep up its interest rate stance for very long.
The ...
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Credit crunch is spreading throughout Europe, already reaching deflationary crisis proportions. from 2023-05-31T07:00
Oil can't catch a sustained bid, too easily falling right back into contango. With the US debt ceiling agreement (in principle), rates markets worldwide can now go back to their regularly schedu...
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It's the incomes, stupid. from 2023-05-30T07:00
Everyone loves GDP including the government agency which calculates it. Even so, GDI has been a more useful signal for cyclical changes, particularly peaks. Last week's GDP update included the f...
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Why it is always the government for these things. from 2023-05-29T13:14:34
Structural inflation or something else. To mainstream Economists, consumer prices are being driven by structural forces such as demographics, oil production, and, of course, government. As Ronal...
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An escalating series of monetary tremors still shaking the eurodollar's world. from 2023-05-28T07:00
Trying to figure out the state of the economy and monetary system by looking backward through consumer price estimates is, well, backward. To understand where we're going, we have to look forwar...
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It is going to get a lot worse before any chance of getting better. from 2023-05-26T07:00
German GDP revisions show the country already mired in recession despite the government's assurances there wouldn't be one. And to reemphasize the global nature of the deflationary setback, US c...
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Why there is so much near-certainty about the worst case. from 2023-05-25T07:00
The deflationary wave sweeping the global system isn't one thing or another, it is becoming all the things everywhere. That's what makes such a compelling case for the worst case, a deflationary...
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Supply cuts just can't keep up with banking crisis, recession, and now unleashed dollar "bull." from 2023-05-24T07:00
Saudi Arabia's oil minister implicitly threatened more action from OPEC due to "low" prices and growing short positions betting against supply constraints. Demand is increasingly dire and not ju...
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Proving once again it's the Euro$'s world. When it goes bad, there's nothing to do but lie. from 2023-05-23T07:00
The LIBOR scandal won't go away because it hasn't been properly identified. Govts and officials have alleged it was banks who misbehaved when all along it may have been authorities. Why did they...
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With deposits still falling, govt/Wall St trying desperately to figure out what to do. from 2023-05-22T07:00
Treasury Secretary Yellen held talks with major Wall Street CEOs and bank advisors, raising the subject of further bank mergers. Though that part of the discussion wasn't in the official readout...
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Banks disclosed the "trigger for systemic risk" as they see it from the inside. It's not rate hikes. from 2023-05-21T07:00
Everyone remotely familiar with banking over the last few years knows there's systemic risk and it starts with commercial real estate (CRE). The Fed's very own Financial Stability Report for May...
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The dollar isn't crashing, it is surging again and at the worst time. from 2023-05-19T07:00
WTI futures curve moved further in contango, now joined by another major milestone for the dollar bull-ying its way across Asia. China's yuan has slumped substantially, today falling well below ...
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Crude flips again just as retailers warn and business sales drop. from 2023-05-18T07:00
The expression "slowly at first, then all at once" can describe an economy's descent into nasty recession. There are warning signs all over starting with WTI back in contango. Major retailers ha...
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Huge misses, weakness across-the-board show immediate, severe fallout from banking/credit crisis. from 2023-05-17T07:00
China's reopening is dead and buried. The country's government reported truly sobering economic data that proved beyond any doubt there is nothing left to it. Worse, much of that same data showe...
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Shocking reasons these crucial indications are down so much. Way beyond 2008. from 2023-05-16T07:00
Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to 2008. How could they be so much worse i...
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May reports show consumers, small businesses facing big trouble. from 2023-05-15T07:00
Consumer confidence fell sharply in two recent surveys, as recession fears and banking woes deepen rather than fade. Small businesses facing the same pressures are beginning to crack, too, as th...
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They keep pushing rate hikes and short sellers as reason for bank woes when can see it's not. from 2023-05-14T07:00
Because so many of us focus so much on US banks, and US banks are making it easy to do this, it's also easy to lose sight of the fact this crisis is far from limited to the United States and a f...
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We have a very good - better than very good - idea where all this is going. from 2023-05-12T07:00
As expected, not only is another bank in danger of failing, they're blaming short sellers for it. Jamie Dimon made the ridiculous comments today as major market swings leave little doubt where a...
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The problem isn't just bank failures. What is causing them and what it is going to do. from 2023-05-11T07:00
Deflationary money leads to a deflationary economy which has to be disinflationary first. We keep getting "anomalies" in the monetary system (interest rate swaps and collateral) including anothe...
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Big global problems behind lower oil prices, from US banks to the total wipeout in China. from 2023-05-10T07:00
The Chinese reported renewed declines for their imports, including a big one in crude oil. When OPEC announced production cuts, they could see China wasn't living up to reopening hype and the la...
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Banking crisis isn't just US regional banks. Europe's banking system might be in worse shape. from 2023-05-09T07:00
Bad steepening in global curves from Treasuries to German bunds even French Obligations assimilables du Trésor (OATs). Regional banks have gotten all the attention though European banks have be...
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The alarming dollar connections between oil plunge and Germany's sudden and shocking collapse. from 2023-05-08T07:00
It was not a good week for long oil traders or those betting on the economy and inflation. Prices were down huge Monday and Tuesday last week before suffering a flash crash Wednesday/Thursday. T...
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Big downward revisions to prior months payrolls plus the hours data showing growing contraction. from 2023-05-07T07:00
The April payroll report came out and the topline figure was far from terrible. Some might say it was pretty darn good. As usual, it is the rest of the employment numbers that tell the story. Wh...
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Conditions have rapidly deteriorated. Bad steepening has hit both ends. Rate cuts now close. from 2023-05-05T07:00
Both the Fed and ECB hiked rates this week (in successive days), each claiming inflation is still their greatest threat. German and Treasury markets didn't care one bit, altogether pricing unmis...
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Everyone now betting on the avalanche as crisis worsens, completely ignoring final Fed rate hike. from 2023-05-04T07:00
Who cares about the Fed's (final) rate hike? You shouldn't. While chasing inflation risks that don't exist, instead markets are hedged and priced for serious deflation ahead. All the signs, all ...
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Bad banks. Bad data. Bad curves. Bad everything today as the crisis' next stage moves in. from 2023-05-03T07:00
Despite some relative calm yesterday after First Republic's failure, today was anything but as huge hedging in markets along with more turmoil in the broader banking sector. Bad economic data ar...
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Deflationary fallout begins to emerge in this one place no one was expecting. from 2023-05-02T07:00
Deflationary fallout has become visible and almost unmistakable in the one place which was supposed to save us from that very outcome. China's economy is getting weaker and even stock market inv...
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What it it's not just one or two, but all of them? The next step will be crucial. from 2023-05-01T07:00
Another major US bank failed - First Republic - and the markets barely moved because this is all in the context of deflationary money. If so, we know where this is going. For interest rates and ...
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There is a lot more going on here than just one, no two, now three banks. from 2023-04-30T07:00
First Republic finally fails and on the same day the Fed's report on SVB is released. It says SVB was on outlier, a loner. But that only raises more questions given what happened to First Republ...
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We haven't seen anything like these in a couple generations. from 2023-04-28T07:00
Both the yield curve's 3-month/10-year spread and the Fed's near term forward spread have nose-dived in April. The former by far at a record extreme (for modern USTs), the latter worst since the...
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We're about to become a lot poorer and worse off. Govt demands you to just accept it. from 2023-04-27T07:00
Bank of England's Chief Economist tells Columbia University podcast that people need to accept that they're poorer and worse off, and to stop trying to do anything about it because they're getti...
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Fear grips markets as participants realize nothing was fixed from last month. from 2023-04-26T07:00
Major buying the curves has pushed them back down to and even below the worst points since mid-March. Markets have never been more certain about what's coming and why. Since eurodollar futures a...
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New data shows eruption from banking crisis. The gory details force mainstream media to acknowledge. from 2023-04-25T07:00
The transmission from deflationary money to a deflationary economy was always going to come from a credit crunch. Updated data shows the banking system remains in a critical state which means ta...
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Fallout from disastrous March is already showing up in these places. from 2023-04-24T07:00
According to one source, tourism/attendance at Disney's main theme park in Orlando already dropped off a cliff. Hardly a surprise, the primary risk to the global economy - not just US - isn't in...
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Money market warnings have become too big (2008-ish) to ignore. Here come the excuses. Debt ceiling? from 2023-04-23T07:00
Something is going on with bills. There's a debt ceiling deadline looming. Two must be related, says the mainstream, otherwise the former would mean something bad and Jay Powell said nothing bad...
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Just insane collateral market action today shows deflationary money is getting worse. from 2023-04-21T07:00
Four-week bill yield plummeted by around 60 bps at one point in today's trading. Serious monetary pressures are still there, continue to get worse even a month after the mid-March banking crisis...
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Turmoil continues as dead canaries pile up in the Euro$ mines. People are noticing the carcasses. from 2023-04-20T07:00
Like Warren Buffett last week, this week Elon Musk issues grave warning about health of global banks. But why? Is it inflation run amok, or the world paying in deflation for the past few years o...
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Here comes the wrecking ball as everyone is chasing after dollars everywhere. from 2023-04-19T07:00
Brazil's President Lula traveled to Shanghai to finalize bilateral engagement bypassing the US dollar. This is not de-dollarization, rather an acknowledgement the eurodollar system is in a crisi...
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Alarming behavior of the fear ratio over the past two months shows no signs of stopping. from 2023-04-18T07:00
Where are we? Is there still a crisis? Is it over(blown)? The "fear ratio" helps sort out signal from so much noise. Since it sits at the intersection of money, finance, and especially real econ...
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We're getting a better idea of how the banking crisis is progressing - no thanks to authorities. from 2023-04-17T07:00
The hawks are back at the Fed doing what Fed hawks always do. Beginning with overestimating their own tools, they then overestimate the resilience of the banking system before also overestimatin...
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Warren Buffett didn't just make shocking comments on banking system, he's already acting on them. from 2023-04-16T07:00
This week was a wild one, including how during it legendary investor Warren Buffett said he was selling bank stocks because there were more failures still to come. While depositors won't see any...
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Startling statement reveals far worse danger than just a recession. from 2023-04-14T07:00
First they said it was a growth scare. They told us to ignore inversions. Then they pointed to the unemployment rate and said there's no way we could have a recession. Now they admit there will ...
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More big trouble in global money system together with US CPI numbers. Major fallout continues. from 2023-04-13T07:00
Just as the interest rate swap market had indicated, big collateral scarcity as 4w Tbill rates yesterday plummeted. Also, Japanese bills for more confirmation. Add those to the US CPI results fo...
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Huge moves in key spreads, massive problems as authorities begin to admit there's real danger. from 2023-04-12T07:00
Alarming compression of interest rate swap spreads indicate more systemic issues in global balance sheet capacities and collateral, too. Also, the IMF reported on its World Economic Outlook wher...
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New data gives us badly needed details behind bank shock/crisis. What it means moving forward. from 2023-04-11T07:00
The Federal Reserve's H.8 data on US commercial banks shows just how much of a systemic shock the March seasonal bottleneck had produced. Institutions got hit with historic levels of deposit dec...
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Probabilities have rarely ever been this high. This is why. from 2023-04-10T07:00
Markets are pricing an imminent and sharp drop for interest rates. It's not just about the Fed and rate cuts. But with regard to those, history shows the so-called reaction function flips decide...
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They can no longer deny the devastating effects of this crisis. from 2023-04-07T07:00
For all its bluster, the Federal Reserve very nearly paused its rate hikes last month for obvious reasons. Other central banks already have - two this week - which doesn't bode well for anyone. ...
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Almost a month later and the situation is deteriorating rapidly. from 2023-04-06T07:00
More extreme hedging swept global markets in morning trading, including another serious collateral run. As it did, curves have been distorted to an even more concerning degree than they had been...
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Huge moves today all over the place and the reasons why. from 2023-04-05T07:00
The one thing missing so far from the 2008-style scenario - mass layoffs - hinges entirely on whether businesses believe they can hold out for a second half rebound. As the weeks even days go by...
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Massive fallout US, China, global economy not to mention banking for the rest of this year. from 2023-04-04T07:00
Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC announced a surprising round of substantial and "voluntary" production cuts to combat sagging (not surging) crude oil prices. In doing so, the group confirmed every neg...
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Real reason markets are betting more and more Fed is wrong and will be cutting rates very soon. from 2023-04-03T07:00
China's reopening just might be the last gasp, the final chance to escape the dreaded 2008-style scenario. If it fails, there is nothing left for the world to pin its hopes on. Examining the lat...
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With crisis still raging and fallout still on the horizon, will they get away with this? from 2023-04-02T07:00
Watch Jeff get really fired up over the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr's refusal to answer questions about the "central bank's" tools even as he sought more authority from the governmen...
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This current crisis is the last piece to fall into place not the first one in the puzzle. from 2023-03-31T07:00
The 2008-style scenario requires two parts - bad money and bad economy. We can now more easily see the first of those even if many will refuse to admit it. How about the other? That one isn't ha...
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This crisis has a very long way to go and this right here is the reason why. from 2023-03-30T07:00
Maybe Governor Bailey was a little too honest when trying to downplay the current situation, confessing to "very heightened tensions." But what are these tensions and why have they heightened? T...
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This is how we know the next stage of the crisis has shown up. from 2023-03-29T07:00
Officials, regulators, politicians will all claim you and I are the problem. They'll begin to tell us bank panics happen because of misinformation and overly emotional depositors. Examples from ...
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Shocking data shows there is much more to the story than Credit Suisse or Deutsche Bank. from 2023-03-28T07:00
European banks find themselves back in the crosshairs of global monetary deflation, on both the receiving end and the giving end. Deutsche Bank's balance sheet offers a few clues as does the ECB...
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The government is in a panic over the bank crisis to tell you not to panic over the bank crisis. from 2023-03-27T10:11:29
Jeff and Steve speculate on why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called an unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Committee Friday. Was it to congratulate its members for stabil...
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Huge, historic moves keep rocking the global systems as governments start to panic. from 2023-03-26T07:00
More huge moves in markets as the Fed releases yet more crisis-level data. Treasury bill auctions continue to pile on huge demand, surging prices and plummeting even zero yields. Repo fails jump...
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What is the 2008 trap and how do we avoid it? from 2023-03-24T07:00
Jay Powell's press conference yesterday acknowledged both parts of the 2008-style scenario present right now. But like his 2008 predecessors, he is once again falling into the same trap thinking...
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This next move is going to be their last - and they know it even if they aren't ready to admit it. from 2023-03-23T07:00
The Fed hiked rates, no surprise, even raised consumer price forecasts and the infamous dot plots. Markets, no surprise, did not buy it one bit. there continues to be way too much which reminds ...
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So-called lender of second-last resort has already begun preparing for the worst. from 2023-03-22T07:00
Yet another funding crisis indication comes to us in a report from Bloomberg. FHLB co-ops are issuing debt like we've never seen before in what can only mean major bank funding problems. The onl...
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There really is serious systemic potential about Credit Suisse. from 2023-03-21T07:00
Another Sunday action by the Fed, this time less about regional US banks instead acknowledging major global (euro)dollar potential dysfunction. Some maybe a lot of that is coming from Switzerlan...
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Severe consequences to expect months, weeks, even days ahead. from 2023-03-20T10:07
The deflationary outburst shook up the world and it is still spreading. Financial aftershocks are still being felt but the economic fallout hasn't even begun. Just how early on in the process ar...
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Collateral runs keep on coming and China chimes in with its own warning sign. from 2023-03-19T07:00
Why would anyone want to buy a T-bill from the government which didn't return anything? A zero interest loan to the feds makes no sense when you can get far better at least from the Fed. Unless ...
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They say everything is fine/back to normal. We can clearly see it is not fine/nowhere near normal. from 2023-03-17T13:11:39
The ECB hiked its interest rate benchmarks today by 50 bps. Markets everywhere basically ignored it. What happened over the past week has already left serious and lasting doubts if not persisten...
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Multiple markets now say the crisis has begun. from 2023-03-16T07:00
The curve shape we've been waiting for - and dreading - has finally shown up. This "bad steepening" indicates a 2008-style scenario is unfolding right now. Not a 2008 repeat, but the same genera...
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These key signals have rarely been seen before. This one is unprecedented. from 2023-03-15T07:00
We need to review the lessons of Bear Stearns and not just because it is the 15th anniversary of that firm's final day as an independent. The parallels go way beyond a single bank failure like S...
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More shocking fallout as even bigger market swings reverberate around the world. from 2023-03-14T07:00
Friday's bond/rates markets moves were almost indescribable. Somehow today's were even bigger. What is going on isn't just about SVB, though looking into SVB can help provide us with some clues....
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What markets are telling us about potential for more bank runs and failures. from 2023-03-13T07:00
The real markets (not stocks) have been warning about ugliness for months. Now even the public can see it though policymakers and authorities will continue to deny it. Will there be more? Is the...
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A global buying panic in bonds triggered by more than a little panic-panic in the monetary system. from 2023-03-11T07:00
The payroll report was supposed to be today's sole topic. Instead, it was completely overshadowed first by a global bond buying panic sparked in Asia then carrying over throughout the US trading...
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Biggest warning sign yet. from 2023-03-10T07:00
If "inflation" has been such a killer, nowhere more so than for food, why wouldn't falling food prices be a welcome development? The answer is actually pretty easy to put together in a whole bun...
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Just what we've been warning you about. from 2023-03-09T07:00
All that financial volatility last September and October may have been the point of no return. Immediately after, curves swung from alarming to crazy. Now we see the consequences spreading throu...
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The last time Congress did something big about the Fed. from 2023-03-08T07:00
As the Great Inflation wore on into its second decade, even politicians in Congress knew it had something to do with failure at the Fed. Demanding answers, a series of reform laws were passed in...
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What they're not telling you. from 2023-03-07T07:00
China reopening hype has been driven mostly by the mainstream media in the West. Recent developments pushed it to another level even though the entire time it was as hollow as every other global...
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They've got it all wrong. from 2023-03-06T07:00
More reliable than the unemployment rate. Greater accuracy compared to payrolls. Forget Janet Yellen's bluster and misinterpreting all those Chinese PMIs. There's a much simpler, more fun way to...
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They say it's impossible. from 2023-03-05T07:00
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recession isn't possible with the unemployment rate so low and hiring so robust. What she won't tell you is how little those datapoints matter in any possibl...
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Who is still knocking at the Discount Window? from 2023-03-03T07:00
Between February and December, use of the Fed's primary credit soared to more than $10 billion. Who was using it and why? Several theories abound though none line up with all the monetary facts....
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This is a huge difference. from 2023-03-02T07:00
China's reopening isn't faltering, it's booming! Or is it? The Chinese government reported big PMI numbers for February, but what do these things actually mean? I'm not sure anyone knows because...
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"Stupid slow." from 2023-03-01T10:01:45
More "hot" CPI data from Europe has renewed focus on rate hikes for what many are considering an unquenchably hot global economy. But a determined examination of the other side of the world in A...
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Is the world prepared for the European shock? from 2023-02-28T07:00
The ECB wants to leave no doubt about rate hikes and inflation risks. Markets have no doubt the ECB is serious about those, and even less doubt it is wrong to be so. More data shows why, and wha...
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They jumped the gun on the soft landing, just as markets predicted. from 2023-02-28T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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What stocks are trying to tell us about. from 2023-02-27T15:37:21
Something big is happening in oil. A crucial physical commodity which actually does intersect with the real economy and it is totally blowing up the soft landing/no landing economy. Yet, the sto...
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It can't keep going like this. from 2023-02-26T16:27:32
Incomes are the key to the whole thing. While many keep claiming the economy is staying way too hot, this big miss shows you why it never once was and right now recession not inflation needs to ...
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Why is no one paying attention to this collapse? from 2023-02-24T07:00
Global markets and curves are epically upset about something. What is it? A number of nasty macro scenarios are together the most obvious answer, hardly the only one. Nothing makes markets hedge...
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Because of the same shocking mistake every time. from 2023-02-23T07:00
Renewed Fed hawkishness along with resurgent macro optimism ("no landing") all of it based on payrolls, the unemployment rate, even retail sales. History conclusively shows this isn't just a mis...
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They're preparing for worse. from 2023-02-22T07:00
Amidst renewed optimism, growing confidence the recession risks have all be surmounted, the one company who knows better and should be really booming is not. Walmart's earnings report was anothe...
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And we're still stuck in it - at the worst possible time from 2023-02-21T11:19:25
There was never a liquidity trap, just the lie about liquidity leaving us in 2023 facing the same destructive money trap. For ten years the Bank of Japan had done what Paul Krugman had urged fro...
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Yep, we're going to go there. We need to start taking the (many) comparisons seriously. from 2023-02-20T07:00
We always hesitate to use 2008 comparisons because history never repeats exactly. While there won't be another Lehman Brothers and no one is plagued by subprime mortgages, there are serious doll...
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Seriously. Legit crashing around the one place that's supposed to be lifting us out of danger. from 2023-02-19T17:45:40
China reopening is said to be robust and inspiring, the stuff of soft landings even reignited "inflation." The evidence increasingly points instead to quite the opposite, including several key i...
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The temperature just got turned way up. from 2023-02-17T07:00
What if the economy is the proverbial boiling frog? But rather than the temperature of the water in the pot increasing slowly all the time, it goes up and then just when the frog begins to notic...
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The shocking reason for rate hikes. from 2023-02-16T07:00
The unemployment rate since June has fallen a few tenths more than the already low number it started with. Payrolls have added millions in those seven months. So how could the CPI have gone from...
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Almost everyone missed it. from 2023-02-15T07:00
The fatal flaw is deeply embedded, even within the language we use to describe CPIs. We are wrongly led to believe consumer prices reflect the economy, when in truth those over the past few year...
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We really can't afford for this to fail. from 2023-02-14T07:00
China reopening, media rather than money blitz. Bank lending has been hyped though as usual the rest of the story - the important parts - get left out for the narrative. The reopening impulse ju...
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China's balloons and the dead dollar. from 2023-02-13T11:40:27
If the dollar has lost 97% of its value, then why had the world prospered so much during that time when it did? The answer provides tremendous insight into several fallacies about the global cur...
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It was supposed to be getting better but they keep coming. from 2023-02-10T07:00
Interest rate Thunderdome. What appears to be the short end versus the long end, or the longer-term rates against the Fed, the continued surge in layoffs once again shows it is actually the Fed ...
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Gasoline causing problems again, but what kind? from 2023-02-09T07:00
Resurgent gasoline prices have some thinking about "transitory disinflation." That the improvement in consumer price pressures won't last because of the same supply factors which drove those in ...
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Here comes the dreaded credit crunch. from 2023-02-08T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SLOOS
https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202301.htm
April 2008 FOMC Transcript
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mo...
Markets right now are pricing the worst. from 2023-02-07T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Stock & Watson; Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
https://www.nber.org/papers/w9127
Bernanke; The Great Moderation
...
Once you can see it clearly, it's already too late. from 2023-02-06T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Conversation, with Steve Van Metre
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You won't believe what they just reported. from 2023-02-04T07:00
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History is repeating. Again. And it can cost you big. from 2023-02-03T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Dow, S&P break records; CNN
https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/markets/markets_0500/
Fed explains the big rate cut; CNN
htt...
This wasn't just expected, it has been practically inevitable. from 2023-02-02T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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You won't believe what is really behind the Fed's rate hikes&inflation rhetoric. from 2023-01-31T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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It's a really bad sign for everyone. Just don't call it unexpected. from 2023-01-28T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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This is what always happens before falling through the floor. from 2023-01-27T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Time has run out and there's no escaping what's next. from 2023-01-26T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Near Term Forward Spread Data
https://www.neartermforwardspread.com/
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https://www....
Will gridlock in Washington spill over? from 2023-01-25T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC May 1997 Meeting Presentation Materials
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19970520material.pdf
Foreig...
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No longer a question of "if" or even "when", instead "how long" and "how bad." from 2023-01-24T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://newsroom.spotify.com/2023-01-23/an-update-on-january-2023-organizational-changes/
https://nypost.com/2023/01/23/google-work...
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They always get it wrong. This time is no different and here's the proof. from 2023-01-23T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly, featuring Steve Van Metre
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If it is, what does that even mean? from 2023-01-21T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
They're All Symptoms of the Same Dollar Disease
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/07/19/theyre_all_symptoms_of_the_same_d...
When feces and fan blades come into contact, it's going to get real messy. from 2023-01-19T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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A shocking curve development points to a much more dangerous road. from 2023-01-18T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Part 2: They say they can save us. They can't. from 2023-01-17T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fed Chairman Powell Press Conference November 2, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20221102.pdf
...
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Part 1: Jay says he can save us. He can't. from 2023-01-17T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fed Chairman Powell Press Conference November 2, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20221102.pdf
...
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They are powerless to do anything now. from 2023-01-16T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steven Van Metre.
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h...
Markets are prepared for the worst. You need to know why. from 2023-01-14T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Biggest CPI ever didn't disappoint. from 2023-01-13T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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When even the optimisms throw in the towel on the global economy... from 2023-01-11T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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There was no escaping. from 2023-01-10T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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What the trigger for equities will be. It's not really about the Fed. from 2023-01-09T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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We've been warned about this for a long time coming. from 2023-01-07T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Collateral. Collateral. Collateral. Confirmed...by the Fed. from 2023-01-06T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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This is another big one. Repeated mistakes have already ended the Fed hawks. from 2023-01-05T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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And with it, global inversions roar back. from 2023-01-04T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The real story behind China's ditch of Zero-COVID begins w/its dead tiger. from 2023-01-03T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Five major themes of '22. How they started, how they're going for '23. from 2022-12-31T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Yes, another trillion. And this govt stopped reporting on it. from 2022-12-30T11:06:58
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The Fed's fed funds target isn't about funds, it's about the Fed and it shouldn't be. from 2022-12-29T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Market warnings about November have proven accurate. Again. from 2022-12-28T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WSJ: Chip Inventories Swell as Consumers Buy Fewer Gadgets
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-inventories-swell-as-consumers-buy-fewer-...
Dramatic change in consumer price behavior undermines GDP bounce. from 2022-12-27T11:00:31
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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htt...
So much can be called insane right now. This is - by far - the most. from 2022-12-24T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Quantitative Easing: How Well Does This Tool Work?https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/quantitat...
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Here comes the deflation. CPIs are out. from 2022-12-22T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Bank of Japan 'stunned' the markets w/major shakeup to YCC. What it all means. from 2022-12-21T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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There is no cavalry ready to come riding to our rescue (it was called off in 2016). from 2022-12-20T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Shocking reason why widespread layoffs are coming (catching Fed by surprise). from 2022-12-19T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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The crash does not come without warnings, if you know where to look for them. from 2022-12-17T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Market chaos as major players call the biggest bluff. from 2022-12-15T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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We *really* need to burn it down and start again from scratch. from 2022-12-14T07:00
The November CPI report has been characterized as a shock when it was anything but. Markets have told you, me, everyone this was always going to happen. What is standing in the world's way from rea...
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Overseas dollar providers are *not* providing dollars...to Americans. from 2022-12-13T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-financial-threat-emerges-foreign-exchange-swaps-debt-bank-for-international-settlements-11670429317?st...
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This one might seal the fate of the FOMC's rate hikes. from 2022-12-12T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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Banks aren't what you think they are which has become a huge, huge problem. from 2022-12-10T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jamie Dimon on CNBC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIJbTsYbHME
FRB Atlanta The Evolution of the Check as a Means of Payment: A...
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There is no mistaking these signals; that's the bad news. from 2022-12-08T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Officials admit this was a huge part of 2008, 2020, maybe the next one, too. from 2022-12-07T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm
Innovation in the ...
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Now that we're finally here, what does it mean? from 2022-12-07T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Payrolls like Jay Powell are boxed in by employment. from 2022-12-05T07:30
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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Yes, the era of easy and cheap money is definitely over. from 2022-12-03T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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If even the Fed Chairman can sense it... from 2022-12-01T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Article discussed in today's video: The U.S. Labor Market Is Less Tight Than It Appears
https://hbr.org/2022/11/the-u-s-labor-market-i...
The Fed's very own data indicates it's over. from 2022-11-30T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Xi's inhumane lockdowns and the unrest they've provoked point to much deeper troubles. from 2022-11-29T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Major 'unexpected' issues just like the last time in '18. from 2022-11-28T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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https://www.eurodollar.university
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Warning after warning after warning...now another big one. from 2022-11-26T12:59:27
Major, sweeping inversion. WTI contango. In 2018, these warnings happened just prior to the Fed being forced out of its rate hike plans for 2019 because the economy and markets were more and mor...
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As predicted, here it comes, something big is going on right now. from 2022-11-23T22:19:48
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Their return is becoming a near-certainty even amidst all this uncertainty. from 2022-11-23T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Biggest drop on record officials said wouldn't happen. from 2022-11-22T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Foreigners betting big on it and you should too. from 2022-11-21T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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Hawks declare more rate hikes, history and another market say not for long. from 2022-11-19T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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We need to talk about curve inversions (plural) going nuclear. from 2022-11-17T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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We really need to talk about "inflation", as Alan Greenspan was trying to way back in '96. from 2022-11-16T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Here come the central bank empire's hawks, right on cue. from 2022-11-15T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Slowing CPI finally slows Fed trajectory, but what does the pivot really mean? from 2022-11-14T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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Way too many uncomfortably close parallels between Oct '07 and Oct '22 to ignore like we're told to. from 2022-11-12T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Storm warning: almost a trillion in global reserves gone, a quarter 'missing' from Swiss. from 2022-11-10T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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House prices in China have already started dropping, but why? Xi's plan not rate hikes. from 2022-11-09T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Is the Treasury market about to blow up? Some think so, but why? from 2022-11-08T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Iceland's Secret: the Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con [Ep. 320] from 2022-11-08T05:00
Iceland's 2007-09 experience is infamous and internationally lauded—actual bankers went to jail!—but what really happened? Is the story over? And is Iceland's secret really about Iceland at all,...
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Crazy market week because with each rate hike a reason (or two) for coming pivots. Data confirms. from 2022-11-07T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steven Van Metre
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Companies are *cutting* full-time jobs like they do EVERY time before recession. Fed pivot coming. from 2022-11-05T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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An absurd summation of absurd history for an absurd day. If only it wasn't so serious. from 2022-11-03T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Buying in USTs is split by the time of the day: foreigners buy heavily then Americans sell. Why? from 2022-11-02T15:45:29
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Move over yen, PBOC's desperate commercial-led rescue a dismal failure as yuan strikes new low. Why? from 2022-11-01T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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This is where we find out, the economy and markets at their crucial junctures. Recession or not. from 2022-10-31T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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Big rebound in CNY - but not for any good reason - while demand destruction finally arrives in US. from 2022-10-27T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Home prices are now falling, piling on the Fed pivot from near and dear to the FOMC (models). from 2022-10-26T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Ben Bernanke July 2005 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo
Janet Yellen July 2005 https://www.frbsf.org/our-district/pres...
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Xi Jinping's vulgar display of power - and its target - was intended specifically for you and me. from 2022-10-25T14:30:19
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Domestic housing bust accelerates, yet it is foreign Treasury buyers who are inverting the curve. from 2022-10-24T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, featuring Steve Van Metre
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Info not fearmongering. Swaps not Swiss. Dealers not Fed. The data and evidence are conclusive. from 2022-10-22T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Swap study mentioned in this video: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/2018/epr_2018_negative-swap-spreads_boyarchenko.html
Tw...
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Inflation is about money and that means and has meant eurodollar, not the Federal Reserve. from 2022-10-20T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The yen isn't Japan's problem, it is everyone's problem. Because this crash isn't the Fed. from 2022-10-19T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The world rocked by Euro$ collateral; Italy, Eurobonds, maybe the '22 equivalent of "toxic waste." from 2022-10-18T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Too hot CPI. Frozen in Hong Kong. Fed hiking former. How much longer until latter disrupts it all? from 2022-10-17T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, Featuring Steve Van Metre
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As dollar woes get worse, why don't the Fed's swap lines work? Let's answer that question. from 2022-10-15T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Dollar funding crisis reaches...Switzerland. This isn't (just) Credit Suisse, though. from 2022-10-13T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrXNkk4IESnqU-8GMad2vyA/videos
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https://www.eurodoll...
How did chips go from epic shortage to massive deflationary pressure? Big IMF downgrades tell us. from 2022-10-12T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Sources included in this episode:
https://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/2/11441.html
https://www.yahoo.com/now/amd...
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Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize award rewrites the past while darkening future for a single word. from 2022-10-11T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Sources featured in this video:
FOMC Jan '09
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20090116confcall.pdf
...
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Payrolls. OPEC. Consumers borrow every last cent. Clearing up a week of ambiguity. Tricks or Treats. from 2022-10-10T07:00
Eurodollar University's Weekly Recap, Featuring Steve Van Metre
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Stocks down big because rate hikes in unemployment rate, while real economy falling apart faster. from 2022-10-08T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Not a question of "if", rather "when" and for us little people what happens in between from 2022-10-06T07:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Is there a real challenge to Xi Jinping's rule? Yes, but it's more philosophical than bullets. from 2022-10-05T08:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Articles discussed in this video:
Banks had warned, SOFR doesn't work and that's a huge problem (in case you hadn't noticed). from 2022-10-04T08:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Articles discussed in this video:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/03/25/an_entire_decade_wasted_at_the_expense_of_co...
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Part 1 of our Eurodollar Conversation: the countdown to global QEs has begun, what do markets say from 2022-10-03T08:00
Eurodollar University Conversations, featuring Steven Van Metre.
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Warning flags are out. SOFR. Tbills. TIPS. Serious deflationary storm is brewing. from 2022-10-01T12:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Breaking Britain. I Am The One Who Knocks. Say My Name (it isn't Jay). from 2022-09-29T06:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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eurodollar.university
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www.PortfolioShield.net
RCM essay discussed here:...
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The pound isn't the only one going to get pounded. from 2022-09-28T09:00
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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eurodollar.university
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RCM essay discussed here:...
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Before the pound got pounded, Germany's bond market had sent the world a historic warning. from 2022-09-27T09:00
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eurodollar.university
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RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Epoch Times Columns: https://b...
Stocks reacted negatively, but was it to rate hikes or the other Rs? from 2022-09-26T08:00
Markets and not just stocks experienced a very rocky week. While the Fed raised its benchmark rates by another 75 bps, the other two "Rs" - recession and rising dollar - are lurking beneath the ...
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Dollar Crushes World Economy yet Media Won't Ask 'Why?' [Ep. 289, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-14T07:00
"Emerging markets burn through currency reserves as crisis risks grow," notes the Wall Street Journal. But what sticks in Mr. Jeff Snider's craw is that there's no mention as to why this is. To ...
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Fed says, 'Quantitative Tightening does Nothing (QE too)' [Ep. 288, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-13T07:00
A study by the Federal Reserve finds that quantitative tightening has a statistically significant effect on rates and yields. Too bad the effect is IMMATERIAL in the EXTREME! Also, same study no...
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Systemic Banking Crisis Warnings for France, Sweden&Czech Rep. [Ep. 287, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-12T06:48:57
Three European countries entered 2022 already on their back-foot after triggering early warning indicators of systemic banking crisis. Then they were presented energy, consumer-price and war eme...
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The Worst of the Eurodollar Downturn is Still Ahead [Ep. 286, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-09T11:54:31
Economic accounts are bad, worldwide. The worst is ahead of us.
****DISCLOSURES****
Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financia...
Collateral Scarcity Explains Japanese Yen's Fall [Ep. 285, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-06T09:42:05
Repurchase agreement failures by America's Primary Dealers have moved step-for-step with Japan's yen for two years. As the tempo of musical (financial-collateral) chairs picks up (scarcity, scra...
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Is a Post-Dollar World Coming—Soon? [Ep. 284, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-05T09:40:10
A Financial Times opinion column avers not only is a "post-dollar world coming" but that it is "near" and that the "decline could last... longer". We review the argument, disagree, and note no d...
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How to Know When the Fed will Stop Rate Hikes [Ep. 283, Eurodollar University] from 2022-09-02T07:00
When an emerging market central bank goes off-balance sheet to fight currency depreciation it means the world's monetary shortage has entered the next, more dangerous phase. The Indian rupee is ...
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Rupee Low Represents the World Economy, not India [Ep. 282, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-30T14:57:51
When an emerging market central bank goes off-balance sheet to fight currency depreciation it means the world's monetary shortage has entered the next, more dangerous phase. The Indian rupee is ...
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Why is Inflation in USA Higher than across World? [Ep. 281, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-29T10:33:58
The San Francisco Fed reveals why US consumer prices accelerated more than other nations (i.e. stimulus checks). Also, the SF Fed explains why and when prices accelerated during 2020-22 (i.e. de...
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Treasury Bills: Never Miss an Opportunity to Miss an Opportunity [Ep. 280, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-25T10:12:54
The Treasury Bill is the most liquid capital market asset of the monetary system. Now the Federal Reserve's 'quantitative' 'tightening' could liquify the dehydrated system (making Bills market-a...
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China's Currency (had been) Suspiciously Stable [Ep. 279, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-24T11:08:54
China's economic results for July were "gruesome", the rest of the year not been much better. That's troubling enough but when the yuan doesn't move a scintilla for weeks it suggests the People'...
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Lithium Market Fundamentals and Outlook [Ep. 278] from 2022-08-23T11:20:23
Is there an unstoppable transformation—à la the internet in the 1990s—taking place in mining, minerals and energy? What are the supply and demand fundamentals for lithium? Where might an invest...
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Warning: Oil Moving Rapidly to "Contango" [Ep. 277, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-21T10:58:14
The calendar spread (1- and 3-month) in the oil futures market (West Texas Intermediate) is compressing and is THIS close to being in contango. That would be the oil market saying, 'We don't see...
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Global Money Scarcity Observed in Recent 1 Month Treasury Auction [Ep. 276, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-17T11:06:43
A recent US Treasury auction for one-month Treasury Bills showed heavy premiums paid by the market to secure the global monetary system's most desired financial collateral. It signals ongoing co...
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European Sovereign Debt Crisis - is it Back? [Ep. 275, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-16T07:00
The European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12 was the final nail in the post-Cold War Globalization coffin; it proved beyond a doubt that a global money/credit/collateral crisis was not a one-ti...
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NYTimes Opinion: Economy a Collection of Vibes, Feelings [Ep. 274, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-15T11:40:04
If you all feel bad about the economy than the economy will be bad and you all are acting weird, so says a recent New York Times opinion column. We discuss whether concrete economic signals / da...
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The Fed Created the Repo Market, then Ignored it [Ep. 273, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-10T12:03:42
Today the repurchase agreement is the backstop, the 'lender of last resort', for the global monetary system. Over a century ago it was the Federal Reserve that created the repo market. But funni...
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09-Aug-2007: The Day of Economic Infamy [Ep. 272, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-09T07:00
On August 9, 2007 the second largest bank in Europe - BNP Paribas - kicked off the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the Silent Depression (2007-2?). It started with three illiquid money mar...
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Payroll Report says US Economy Great (but that's wrong) [Ep. 271, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-07T13:34:57
The Payroll Report (Establishment Survey) is not wrong but it is inappropriate. Heavy statistical dampening prevents the payroll report from showing economic inflections. Meanwhile, the Househol...
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Correcting Economists: Term Premiums Nain't a Thing [Ep. 270, Eurodollar University] from 2022-08-01T07:00
Central bankers use ‘Term Premia’ to cover for their grave, fundamental mistakes: A) not understanding bond markets, and B) putting themselves at the center of the monetary system.
****DIS...
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ECB Rate Hike is Kiss of Economic Death [Ep. 269, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-31T09:20:29
The European Central Bank raised rates in July 2008 because consumer prices were too high; the Global Financial Crisis climax came next. They did it again, in July 2011, for the same reason; the...
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Fed Official: Inverted curve means Fed is awesome [Ep. 268, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-30T07:00
James Bullard, St. Louis Fed chief, says the yield curve is twisted by the inflation surge, and may not be a recession message. Indeed, markets are twisting it because they have confidence the c...
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In 1982 the Fed missed an opportunity; it still haunts us [Ep. 267, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-25T07:00
On May 20, 1982 the Fed held an emergency conference call for which transcripts are missing (on purpose? by accident?) to solve the "Drysdale Problem". They 'solved' it by focusing on the trees ...
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Hunting for Signs of US dollar shortages in Japan [Ep. 266, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-24T09:07:29
What if Japan's bond and currency markets aren't really about Japan at all?
----EP. 266 REFERENCES----
Global Euro$ Confirmation: http://...
When Global Banks Won't TIC [Ep. 265, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-23T07:00
The US Treasury Department's Treasury International Capital report for the wild month of May 2022 goes a long way to describing our current economic and monetary predicament.
----EP. ...
Eurodollar Curve Inversion is DESPERATE, and DEEP [Ep. 264, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-20T11:45:47
On December 1, 2021 the Eurodollar Futures yield curve inverted by a single basis point, which set off recession warning sirens, claxons and clucking at Eurodollar University. Now? The curve is ...
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Yield Curve Inversion 'Infection' Spreading [Ep. 263, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-18T14:50:33
The US Treasury yield curve continues to spread and has reached the 52-week bill. The Fed is being told by the market it will be CUTTING rates, soon.
----EP. 263 REFERENCES----
Rea...
Why Are Foreigners Happy with Bond 'Losses'? [Ep. 262, Eurodollar University] from 2022-07-17T11:36:16
Foreign institutions have been merrily losing money on US Treasury holdings for years, buying high and selling low - are they insane? No, their investment behavior reveals that these bonds are u...
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The Economist Reviews Pandemic Goods Boom 2020-22 [Eurodollar University, Ep. 261] from 2022-07-11T07:00
The Economist recounts how the pandemic led to a goods-consumption-boom and whether post-pandemic economics means normalization, or a services boom or a recession.
----EP. 261 REFEREN...
Economist Notes UK's Economy was Maimed 15 Years Ago [Eurodollar University, Ep. 260] from 2022-07-10T07:00
The Economist admits to, warns of and draws attention to Britain's 15-year economic depression, labeling it a "slow-burning crisis", "long-standing", "stagnation nation" and "a chronic disease"....
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Employment, US Dollar and European Bonds with Steve van Metre [Eurodollar University, Ep. 259] from 2022-07-09T08:36:05
The US labor market offers both optimistic and pessimistic data points regarding the economic outlook. Does the value of the US dollar break the tie? How do sovereign bond yields in Europe fit i...
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They Wouldn't Listen! Jeff Snider with Steve van Metre [Eurodollar University, Ep. 258] from 2022-07-08T06:53:43
Steven Van Metre and Jeff Snider have partnered together to bring financial information, investment advice and monetary education to the public.
----EP. 258 REFERENCES----
Steve Va...
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast: Recession [Eurodollar University, Ep. 257] from 2022-06-30T07:00
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is forecasting the median result of its model predicts negative output growth in 2022 and 2023.
----EP. 257 REFERENCES----
Sorry Chairman Powel...
Washington DC Stimulus + Fed Printing = Stagnation [Eurodollar University, Ep. 256] from 2022-06-29T07:00
A comprehensive report by the Federal Reserve - the Financial Accounts of the US - reveals that there has been no material change in rate of money creation. Not in the US (on par with an increme...
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Global Trade, Commodity Prices say "Recession Soon" [Eurodollar University, Ep. 255] from 2022-06-28T10:12:26
Japanese and German trade data suggest the world is suffering through a price illusion: trade value is up because prices are up but actual trade by volume / trade by weight is falling (at least ...
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US Economic Data Keeps Suggesting Recession Coming [Eurodollar University, Ep. 254] from 2022-06-27T09:45:35
The latest purchasing manager surveys (services, manufacturing, composite) and manufacturing index (Kansas City Fed) suggest the United States is heading towards a recession, soon (maybe already...
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Interview with Macro Alf: Is it Time to Buy Bonds? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 253] from 2022-06-25T12:27:02
How does a former bank trader with billions of euros in assets react to an impending recession? Is the inflection in bond yields (back down) and prices (back up) starting right now? Did the Euro...
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Guest Appearance: ReSolve Asset Management&Jeff Snider [Ep. 252, Eurodollar University] from 2022-06-24T09:45:04
Jeff Snider explains how the global currency and monetary systems actually work, the origins of the Eurodollar system, Triffin’s Paradox and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System, the stampe...
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Eurodollar Futures Contemptuously Reject Fed Hike [Eurodollar University, Ep. 251] from 2022-06-19T10:21:01
One day prior to the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate by a *bananas* big 75-basis point the Eurodollar Futures market moved its yield curve inversion into the next four quarters. As fast ...
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Reaction Show: Jay Powell Press Conference 75bps Hike [Eurodollar University, Ep. 250] from 2022-06-18T10:44:36
The pinnacle of investigative, introspective financial journalism assembled in front of the Federal Reserve chairman on June 15, 2022 and asked him... questions? Hardly. Weak sauce. In this epis...
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Reaction Show: Jay Powell Opening Statement 75bps Hike [Eurodollar University, Ep. 249] from 2022-06-17T09:58:01
Jeff Snider reacts live to Jay Powell's June 15, 2022 opening statement to assembled members of the press regarding the Federal Reserve's 75-basis point rate hike to the Federal Funds target ran...
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Crash of 1907 - Lessons for Today [Eurodollar University, Ep. 248] from 2022-06-15T07:00
The Crash of 1907 'convinced' Washington DC that a central bank was needed. Or, perhaps more likely, the Crash of 1907 was used as an excuse for a national central bank.
----EP. 248 R...
The Myth of Paul Volcker: Part 2 [Eurodollar University, Ep. 247] from 2022-06-14T07:00
We are told that Paul Volcker led the Federal Reserve into the breech and bravely and knowingly raised short-term interest rates so as to bring about a recession and extinguish the 1970s Great I...
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8.6% CPI is Neither Inflation, Nor the US Economy [Eurodollar University, Ep. 246] from 2022-06-13T10:43:18
US consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year for the month of May 2022, says the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists, financial media and central banks implicitly conflate this price expans...
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Students Destroy International Competition with Eurodollar Knowledge [Eurodollar University, Ep. 245] from 2022-06-11T19:00
Pine-Richland High School won a 120+ team international competition debating whether the dollar's hegemony is detrimental. Pine-Richland won due to their preparation, perspiration, inspiration.....
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Joe Biden's Economic Plan Editorial in the WSJ [Eurodollar University, Ep. 244] from 2022-06-09T08:00
US President Joe Biden has a three-step plan to address the vulnerable US economy. We agree the economy is vulnerable but note that it is not for the reasons the president believes. Also, we not...
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Fed's Reverse Repurchase Agreements Hits $2 Trillion [Eurodollar University, Ep. 243] from 2022-06-08T07:00
Two short-term money markets are yielding LESS THAN the Federal Reserve's RISK FREE reverse repurchase agreement program. Despite the Fed offering now $2 trillion in Treasury securities to the m...
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Smoke on the Horizon: Eurodollar's Economic Warning [Eurodollar University, Ep. 242] from 2022-06-07T09:54:15
The Eurodollar Futures yield curve inverted on December 1, 2021 warning that somewhere over the horizon there was trouble. In March 2022 the US Treasury curve inverted too, confirming the earlie...
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Too Much Inventory Flooding Retailers, Wholesalers [Eurodollar University, Ep. 241] from 2022-06-06T09:38:51
According to the US Census Bureau both retailers and wholesalers reported *bananas-crazy* increases in inventory levels. As the US economy tips over into a slowdown - and realistically a recessi...
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Target, Walmart Warn Consumers Are Backing Off [Eurodollar University, Ep. 240] from 2022-06-05T07:00
Target, Walmart, Japanese merchandise exports, German retail sales, and the early-morning hours of US Treasury Bill trading are all sending the same message: escalating, systemic fragility of th...
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Banks Scared to Make Money (and that's bad for us!) [Eurodollar University, Ep. 239] from 2022-05-30T07:00
A generation ago banks knew that there was money to be made and they acted upon that faith, creating money for the world economy to enrich itself. But ever since 2008 banks have been scared to d...
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Fed is Hiking when it should be Cutting [Eurodollar University, Ep. 238] from 2022-05-28T07:00
The Federal Reserve is hiking rates as part of political theater in response to pressure from the legislative and executive branches of the US government. 'Do something!' A panoply of economic, ...
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Market Rates Refusing to Follow Fed's Command [Eurodollar University, Ep. 237] from 2022-05-26T07:00
The Federal Reserve, we are told, controls interest rates. We have learned over and over that is not true with long-term rates (e.g. yield curve inversion, Greenspan's "conundrum"). But what abo...
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(Nominal) Retail Sales Awesome! (Real) Sales Awful! [Eurodollar University, Ep. 236] from 2022-05-24T07:00
Retail sales - a temperature check on the American consumer - were absolutely fabulous in April 2022; glory, hallelujah! So then why are three different, independent surveys of the US consumer r...
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China Economy: Zero Covid or Zero Money? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 235] from 2022-05-22T10:35:12
The Chinese reported how their economy has fared in the month of April 2022 - the results were very, very poor. It is tempting to say the illness is Beijing's 'Zero Covid' lockdown of hundreds o...
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USD Rise Not Due to Fed; EUR Fall Not Due to ECB [Eurodollar University, Ep. 234] from 2022-05-17T07:00
The Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates while the European Central Bank is in no rush to raise its policy rates. The Economics Textbook and Financial Media say that is why the dollar is ris...
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Treasury Bills Warning of Collateral Scarcity [Eurodollar University, Ep. 233] from 2022-05-15T07:00
US Treasury Bills are trading below the 'floor' set by the Federal Reserve. Why? Why guarantee less return with Treasury Bills when the Fed is promising more?! Because the market will suffer the...
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A Money ILLUSION Shows Japan is Booming [Eurodollar University, Ep. 232] from 2022-05-13T07:00
In 1928 American economist Irving Fischer published a book titled "The Money Illusion" in which he explained the difference between nominal numbers (Japan's exports are booming! Imports are surg...
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China Stimulus! (I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means) [Eurodollar University, Ep. 231] from 2022-05-11T07:00
President Xi Jingping has, according to Western financial media, announced an 'all out' infrastructure spending spree stimulus to goose the Chinese economy. What will this spending be on? On tig...
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Commodity-Based Money (Gold, Oil) is Undesirable [Eurodollar University, Ep. 230] from 2022-05-09T09:24:59
The public utility of commodity-based money was in retreat long before President Roosevelt confiscated gold. That has implications as to whether the 1970s Petrodollar was a real monetary system,...
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Interview: Nick Black&Algorithmic Stablecoins [Eurodollar University, Ep. 229] from 2022-05-07T09:51:07
Nicholas Black, professional raconteur of crypto and gentleman broadcaster, explains what stablecoins are while Jeff Snider, student of the global monetary order, considers whether algorithmic s...
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IMF Downgrades Global Economy (Again) [Eurodollar University, Ep. 228] from 2022-05-04T07:00
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the global economy with its latest World Economic Outlook. This is no surprise to those who have been following the monetary system's warnings sinc...
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China's Currency is Crashing [Eurodollar University, Ep. 227] from 2022-05-03T10:02:28
The Chinese currency is an important indicator of global financial conditions. When it is appreciating we can presume conditions are benign. When it is depreciating? Conditions may be malign. An...
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Jeff Snider Answers Your Questions, Eurodollar FAQs [Eurodollar University, Ep. 226] from 2022-05-02T08:37:45
Jeff Snider 'takes calls' from listeners across the globe. Your hottest requests! Playing the hits! Only on WFED 89.7 FM, The Reserve! Also, do callers play 'The U' in the background while makin...
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Global Dollar Shortage #5 has Begun [Eurodollar University, Ep. 225] from 2022-05-01T10:43:56
Since August 9, 2007 the global economy has been rocked by four world or regional dollar / money / credit shortages (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). It is official, #5 has begun. We know fo...
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Interview with Macro Alf on Banks, Collateral [Eurodollar University, Ep. 224] from 2022-04-28T10:39:51
An insider's view of financial collateral, regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff ...
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Monetary Warning: Repurchase Agreement Fails Spike [Eurodollar University, Ep. 223] from 2022-04-26T07:00
Primary Dealers are failing to deliver and failing to receive collateral used to secure short-term funding at levels last seen in March 2020; the COVID-POCALYPSE BUST UP! These repurchase agreem...
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Fed's INABILITY to Inflate caused Oil Price Spike [Eurodollar University, Ep. 222] from 2022-04-25T07:00
The price of oil is very high, causing consumer prices to rise and it is because of the Federal Reserve. BUT NOT WHY YOU THINK! The Fed does not create real-economy money and their inability to ...
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The Myth of Paul Volcker and the Powerful Fed [Eurodollar University, Ep. 221] from 2022-04-24T09:15:52
Paul Volcker is widely credited in ending the 1970s Great Inflation with stratospheric rate hikes, purposefully pushing the USA into recession. Balderdash! Volcker blinked when rates spiked (sec...
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Platinum, a good investment? [Pain Points&Capital Flows, Ep. 220] from 2022-04-21T14:57:23
Commodity prices are volatile. Supply is suspect and demand is dicey. So, what does the future hold for platinum? A review of the supply and demand fundamentals with Wilma Swarts. Also, Daniel W...
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Will the next Global Bank Crisis start in S. Korea? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 219] from 2022-04-20T10:17:42
The Economist worries that South Korea is mimicking 1980s' Japan—before the bust and lost decades; they may be right. The Bank for International Settlements' five early warning indicators show K...
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RECESSION WATCH: Oct. 2021 Debt Ceiling as Patient 0 [Eurodollar University, Ep. 218] from 2022-04-19T09:43:48
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, a capital market klaxon warning that the US is on course for a recession. When did markets begin to move towards inversion? October 2021. What happened ...
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Why Zoltan Pozsar's Bretton Woods 3 is SO WRONG [Eurodollar University, Ep. 217] from 2022-04-18T15:13:51
Zoltan Pozsar says a commodity-based, China-led monetary order—Bretton Woods III—is upon us, resulting in the decline of the US dollar and escalating repudiation of US Treasuries. This is not go...
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Michael Green: Nobody Wants Jeff Snider to Win! [Eurodollar University, Ep. 216] from 2022-04-12T10:46:22
Michael Green, professional gentleman of capital market structure, explains why US Treasury yields are rising, why options for Eurodollar future negative yields are gaining value, and why the ba...
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There is No Such Thing as A Petrodollar [Eurodollar University, Ep. 215] from 2022-04-10T10:30:41
Petrodollar? There's no such thing. We didn't transition from a gold- to an oil-backed dollar. There was something else, another kind of dollar—hidden by a conspiracy of silence between '44 and ...
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Fed Worried about Inflation during GREAT DEPRESSION?! [Eurodollar University, Ep. 214] from 2022-04-09T10:08:49
In the middle (1937-38) of the Great Depression (1929-47) the Federal Reserve FREAKED out about accelerating consumer prices and the EXCESS supply of bank reserves, so they started to hike rates...
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RECESSION WATCH: Income Stopped Growing in Oct. '21 [Eurodollar University, Ep. 213] from 2022-04-08T09:46:06
Americans' real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) stopped improving way back in October 2021. Would you believe that the US Treasury yield curve began to move towards inversion the v...
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Fed told Congress to Ignore Offshore Money Creation [Eurodollar University, Ep. 212] from 2022-04-04T08:54:19
In the 1960s the Bank for International Settlements investigated the offshore, shadow-money system and found it straightforward and to be ignored. In the 1970s the Federal Reserve said same syst...
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The 7s10s Treasury Spread is a Leading Indicator [Eurodollar University, Ep. 211] from 2022-04-03T10:17:47
The spread between the 7-year and 10-year US Treasury has been a leading indicator of US recession and/or global or regional capital liquidity shortages. We review the inversion and flattening f...
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Epic Supply Shock Powers Inflation in US [Eurodollar University, Ep. 210] from 2022-04-02T10:17:36
A review of US 2021 Q4 GDP helps explain how surging demand, in concert with mauled logistical supply chains, caused blowout consumer price levels. Also, thoughts on gross domestic income and wh...
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USA Moved Toward Recession in October 2021 - Why? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 209] from 2022-04-01T10:06:16
The US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curves are inverted, strongly suggesting US recession and/or global monetary disorder lies ahead. This did not happen overnight! When did markets beg...
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Algorithmic Stablecoins - a New Monetary Order? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 208] from 2022-03-29T07:00
Algorithmic stablecoins may be the solution to our 15-year monetary malfunction. We consider where and if stablecoins fit into money creation, intermediation and whether they'd be units of accou...
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Treasury Bills Trading Below Fed's RRP 'Floor' [Eurodollar University, Ep. 207] from 2022-03-28T07:00
The Federal Reserve's rate hike increased the reverse repo program rate, the so-called rate "floor". But why then are the 4- and 8-week US Treasury Bills trading BELOW the floor? Because there'...
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Treasury Curve Inversion Expands [Eurodollar University, Ep. 206] from 2022-03-27T13:03:21
The US Treasury yield curve inversion is EXPANDING. It has now subsumed the 3-year note under a tide of negative economic expectations. This is the monetary system's warning claxon, but are th...
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Curve Inversion Warning Confirmed by TriParty Repo Collateral [Eurodollar University, Ep. 205] from 2022-03-22T07:00
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, strongly implying economic weakness and likely US recession. But can we identify purely monetary (i.e. non-economic) reasons for the inversion? Yes! Lik...
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Curve Inversion Confirmed by Fed's US Treasury Lending [Eurodollar University, Ep. 204] from 2022-03-21T07:00
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, likely because the US economy is weak sauce. But what if we focused solely on shadow-money variables? Can we confirm the inversion warning via measures ...
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Treasury Curve Inverts - Recession Countdown Begins [Eurodollar University, Ep. 203] from 2022-03-20T10:17:59
The US Treasury curve has inverted. The countdown to the next American recession has begun. We review what happened, where the inversion is in the yield curve and whether there are enough life j...
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Bond, Money Markets Warnings [Eurodollar University, Ep. 202] from 2022-03-15T13:01:59
An update on the US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curve shapes. Distorted? Contemplative? Grotesque? Retching cat chart pattern?
----EP. 202 REFERENCES----
Odd Curve Shapes,...
1940s were CPI Spike; 1960s were Inflation; What About 2020s? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 201] from 2022-03-14T09:57:05
The 1940s witnessed monstrous increases in consumer prices. But it wasn't inflation. In the 1960s? Smaller increases, but it was inflation. What's the difference? What about today?
-----SE...
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Yellen Says Fed Ops can just be Psych Pop [Eurodollar University, Ep. 200] from 2022-03-13T08:21:44
You won't believe it but Janet Yellen said in 2013 that narrative supply - not money supply - can be an effective tool. Turns out most Fed action is just popular psychology and the madness of cr...
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Repo Fail Swarms Are Back - Shadow Money Warning [Eurodollar University, Ep. 199] from 2022-03-08T08:45:38
Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy ...
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West tells Russia "Nyet!" to SWIFT - Does it Matter? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 198] from 2022-03-07T09:02:59
Russia has been told they're out of SWIFT! Kind of. And not right away. And only some Russian banks, kind of. Does it matter? What is SWIFT?
----HEAR ALL EPISODES-----
Vurbl: https:...
Izabella Kaminska (former FT) Talks Financial Media [Eurodollar University, Ep. 197] from 2022-03-07T08:17:24
Former editor at the Financial Times (Alphaville!) has struck out on her own - why? Is it a commentary on the business press and/or mainstream media and what they refuse to cover? Izabella has l...
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Fedwire Break Takes Economic Recovery Down With It [Eurodollar University, Ep. 196] from 2022-03-03T06:00
On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap sp...
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Reserve Currency is Constrained, say Swap Spreads [Eurodollar University, Ep. 195] from 2022-03-02T06:00
A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield cur...
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Interview with Macro Alf on Banks, Money&Macro [Eurodollar University, Ep. 194] from 2022-03-01T14:28:56
An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and...
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What Mohamed EL-ERIAN got SO wrong about the Economy [Eurodollar University, Ep. 193] from 2022-02-28T09:00:57
Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Hidden Forces, a great podcast by Demitri Kofinas. But instead of challenging consensus narratives or thinking critically about the power shaping our world El-Erian ...
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Interview with Anne Stevenson-Yang on China [Eurodollar University, Ep. 192] from 2022-02-25T12:04:14
Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to unecono...
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Central Banking Myths Debunked [Guest Appearance, Ep. 191] from 2022-02-22T10:35:56
Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this November 2021 episode of Blockworks' "On the...
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Treasury Int'l. Capital Data Review, December 2021 [Eurodollar University, Ep. 190] from 2022-02-21T08:23:48
A collateral call in Belgium! Foreign officials are selling US Treasuries! American banks extending less credit to the rest of the world! Japan borrowing more! These, and other, *nerdy* insights...
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Consumer Inflation Expectations... Falling?! [Eurodollar University, Ep. 189] from 2022-02-20T10:11:45
Consumer inflation expectations peaked in October/November 2021, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Market based inflation expectations (Treasur...
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Eurodollar Curve Inversion Deepens, Broadens [Eurodollar University, Ep. 188] from 2022-02-19T09:53:01
Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turn...
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Fed says QE is Really Very Super Extra Terrific [Eurodollar University, Ep. 187] from 2022-02-13T09:14:06
The US government bond market appears to be out of step with CPI, a booming economy and money printing by central banks - what gives? We review two Federal Reserve officials explain that QE is v...
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Financial Times says Fed is Central - We Disagree [Eurodollar University, Ep. 186] from 2022-02-12T10:08:25
Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what...
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China's HUGE Trade Surpluses Mask Capital Outflows [Eurodollar University, Ep. 185] from 2022-02-11T11:39:19
China's 2021 trade surpluses were gigantic, so why isn't the yuan surging too? We review China's 2014-21 trade and currency experience from the perspective of the eurodollar, the international r...
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Flattest Yield Curve is Warning Off Fed [Eurodollar University, Ep. 184] from 2022-01-31T09:37:10
After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet**
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/26/after-todays-fomc-yield-curve-is-already-as-...
Oil, Bitcoin&Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Update [Eurodollar University, Ep 183] from 2022-01-30T13:35:20
Oil prices are up and so you would expect that Treasury Inflation Protected Security breakevens (inflation expectations) are ALSO up... but they are not. Like Bitcoin, TIPS are ignoring oil and foc...
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Retail Inventory Stockpile Surges in USA [Eurodollar University, Ep. 182] from 2022-01-29T10:00:07
Retail inventory grew at a tremendous pace month-over-month in December 2021 in America. Overall inventory growth was so strong that it contributed overwhelmingly to a strong (?) increase in US GD...
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Eurodollar Futures&Treasury Yield Curve Update [Eurodollar University, Ep. 181] from 2022-01-25T16:56:52
The Eurodollar futures curve inverted in December 2021 - what has it done since? Also, how to interpret the US Treasury yield curve in "three easy steps!" Lastly, did the Fed cause the price of (Bu...
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Eurodollar Futures & Treasury Yield Curve Update [Eurodollar University, Ep. 181] from 2022-01-25T16:56:52
The Eurodollar futures curve inverted in December 2021 - what has it done since? Also, how to interpret the US Treasury yield curve in "three easy steps!" Lastly, did the Fed cause the price of (Bu...
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Why Mass Formation Psychosis? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 180] from 2022-01-21T09:15:13
PART 1: Inflation @ 7% but...
PART 2: Bonds Losing Value - Worst in 2 Years! - but...
PART 3: Year 15 of Mass Formation Psychosis (We Explain Why)
None of the "Mass Form...
Irrational Exuberance, Again? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 179] from 2022-01-09T11:59:36
Alan Greenspan warned in 1996 we would not know if stocks were irrational because we could not know how much money was in the economy. Also, wages are rising - just like they did in the Great De...
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The Houdini of Macroeconomics Escapes Inflation Box [Eurodollar University, Ep. 178] from 2021-12-20T08:46:09
PART 01: The Fed has to taper faster because consumer prices (i.e. motor fuel, automobiles) rose faster than it expected. It didn't have the moxie to stare down the CPI increase and explain why ...
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Eurodollar Warning Confirmed(?) by USA GER JPN&CHN [Eurodollar University, Ep. 177] from 2021-12-13T10:50:59
PART 01: The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st - what's happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warn...
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Reading The Fed Guy: Mechanics of a Devaluation [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 176] from 2021-12-06T06:00
The inflationary process is in its early stages, and it will be particularly strong because it arises in part from a devaluation of the world’s reserve currency. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. Listen
Inversion [Eurodollar University, Ep. 175] from 2021-12-05T13:26:40
PART 01: You've heard that when the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That is a warning too. ...
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Reading Mises: Economic Consequences of Cheap Money [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 174] from 2021-12-04T06:00
What does an expansionist monetary policy produce? Is it wise to lower the rate of interest so as to encourage economic activity? The classic text, by Ludwig von Mises. A reading, by Emil Kalino...
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Reading Frances Coppola: Central Banks Can Fight Climate Change [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 173] from 2021-12-03T06:00
Corporate QE amounts to a subsidy to large corporations, corporations that use the money to buy back shares and give big bonuses to executives. It would be far better for central banks to suppor...
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Reading Dr. Pippa Malmgren: WW3 Has Already Started [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 172] from 2021-12-02T06:00
An uncomfortable truth: WWIII is not on the horizon, it is here. Militaries around the world are in a state of high-alert. “Sub-threshold" events are occurring with increasing frequency. War is ...
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Reading Matt Stoller: Economists label Cattle Ranchers "Emotional", then Defend Beef Monopoly [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 171] from 2021-12-01T06:00
Agricultural economists manipulated data to block Congress from acting on high beef prices and the destruction of independent cattle ranching. Why? Because they think monopolies are good. A read...
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Reading Adam Tooze: Global Food Price (Crisis?) [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 170] from 2021-11-30T06:00
According to the FAO Food Price Index, the cost of food has surged in real terms to levels last seen in the 1970s - during the Great Inflation. But another data set, by the OECD shows no such su...
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Reading Allison Fedirka: Fertilizers&Food Insecurity [Macropiece Theater, Ep. 169] from 2021-11-29T06:00
Fertilizer is a critical input to global food production but circumstances have conspired to throw a spanner into the food supply chain works. The supply and demand imbalances have caused a spik...
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Red or Blue Pill? Bonds say Powell will opt for Blue [Eurodollar University, Ep. 168] from 2021-11-28T07:15:29
PART 01: Jay Powell has been nominated by President Biden to serve another term as the Federal Reserve chair. Though his nomination has not even been heard by the US Congress, another group of p...
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Reading the BIS: Bottlenecks&Macro Implications [Ep. 167, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-25T06:00
The Bank for International Settlements observes that bottlenecks in the supply of commodities, intermediate goods and freight transport have given rise to volatile prices and delivery delays. Th...
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Reading Matt Stoller: Will Monopolies Steal the Infrastructure Money? [Ep. 166, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-24T06:00
We are now in a giant parking lot game that threatens the global economy. Thank deregulation and the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 1998. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHO----...
Reading Singapore Bullion Market Assoc.: Silver to the Stratosphere [Ep. 165, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-23T06:00
Silver's decade ahead maybe a perfect storm of demand for government-mandated green investment and of inflation by government-enforced financial repression. Move over 'gold bugs', silver fever i...
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Applying Lipstick to the Hog [Eurodollar University, Ep. 164] from 2021-11-22T08:23:42
PART 01: America's September 2021 Treasury International Capital data corroborates dis/deflationary indications observed across various sources, the vast majority of which imply there's not enou...
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Reading Adam Tooze: Populist Money, Back Then and Right Now [Ep. 163, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-21T10:22:13
In 1896 a great political battle erupted over monetary policy in the United States. That battle and its lessons are relevant today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHO--------...
Reading Jeff Snider: The Wage/Economy Illusion [Ep. 162, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-20T06:00
China's imports of iron value is soaring, which signals a booming economy. A closer look reveals that it is iron prices which are soaring but volume - the real stuff, the real goods - is falling...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Trade Price Boom hides Trade Volume Bust [Ep. 161, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-19T06:00
Trade appears to be booming in Germany and China, but a closer look reveals that the gains are concentrated in "price" and when we isolate "volume" of goods traded an entirely different, and ugl...
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Interviewing Russell Napier: What the Asian Financial Crisis Wrought [Ep. 160] from 2021-11-18T06:00
Author, reformed lawyer, economic historian and your man from Belfast, Russell Napier, explains why the 1995-98 Asian Financial Crisis set the stage for the Age of Debt (1999-2020) and the comin...
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Interviewing Prof. Williamson: Are Gas Prices High? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 159] from 2021-11-17T06:00
An interview with Professor Samuel Williamson, economic historian and co-founder of MeasuringWorth.com, discusses gas prices in 2021 and whether they are high, or low, relative to history in ter...
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Reading Rohan Grey: Money is an Ecosystem and Language [Ep. 158, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-16T06:00
It is difficult to define what money is because the term money can refer to different things in different contexts. Money is not just a thing or unit of measurement but an ecosystem, a layer of...
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Next Fed Chair to be Theoretical Lexicographer [Eurodollar University, Ep. 157] from 2021-11-15T06:56:18
PART 01: Around the world data shows consumer prices are accelerating like we haven't seen in years, even decades. Why? Is it because politicians are wantonly giving away money? Are gluttonous c...
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Interviewing Bilal Hafeez: Three Red Lines, One Recession [Ep. 156, Eurodollar University] from 2021-11-13T06:00
China has cross three red lines - what are they? Inflation is roaring red hot - why and will it last? Next year is shaping up as a prime candidate for Recession 2022 - who believes that?
Reading Jeff Snider: Cliffhanger - Unemployment Benefits [Ep. 155, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-12T07:00
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits in the United States eliminated eight million income streams in September 2021. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHO----------
Listen
Reading the FRBNY: International QE and No Inflation [Ep. 154, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-11T07:00
Does rapid central bank money creation resulting from large-scale purchases of government securities fuel inflation? A review of the experience in Britain, Europe and Japan. A reading, by Emil ...
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Reading Adam Smith: Money and Labor, the Nominal and Real Price of Everything [Ep. 153, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-10T07:00
From Book I (Productive Powers Of Labour), Chapter V (Of The Real And Nominal Price Of Commodities, Or Of Their Price In Labour, And Their Price In Money). A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
<...
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Reading Jean-Paul Sartre: The Nature of Money [Ep. 152, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-09T07:00
From Being & Nothingness, Part Four (Having, Doing and Being), Chapter Two (Doing and Having), Part II ("Doing" and "Having" Possession). A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------W...
Reading Perry Mehrling: Where’s My Swap Line? [Ep. 151, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-08T07:00
The past two decades have seen the construction of a tiered system of international liquidity provision, the first tier including those whose credit is sufficient for a swap line, the second tie...
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The Bonds, the Inflation and the CPI [Eurodollar University, Ep. 150] from 2021-11-07T10:00
PART 01: An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond...
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Reading Lyn Alden: A Resurgence in Value [Ep. 149, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-06T07:00
Lyn Alden's October newsletter focuses on value stocks compared to growth stocks and makes an argument for at least a mild resurgence of value performance. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
<...
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Reading George Friedman: Sketching a 2022 Forecast [Ep. 148, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-05T07:00
George Friedman begins to look ahead at ideas and geographies that will and will not matter in the year 2022: Covid, China, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, the United States and even the Caribb...
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Reading Jeff Snider: When Nobody's Looking, Past Economic Activity is Revised Downward [Ep. 147, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-04T07:00
The September 2021 reading for America's new orders of durable goods shows stagnation / stalling. It is likely much worse but we won't know it for several years, not until the benchmark revision...
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Reading Jeff Snider: US GDP Q3 2021 [Ep. 146, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-03T07:00
The United States' third quarter is in the books - how did the economy do? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
----------WHO----------
Jeff S...
Reading Jeff Snider: Bond Markets Betting on Dis-&De- not In-flation [Ep. 145, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-02T07:00
How can anyone say there’s a dollar shortage and dramatically rising deflationary potential right now? Easy, actually. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
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Reading Velina Tchakarova: The Quad Summit amid the Bifurcation of the Global System [Ep. 144, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-11-01T07:00
In September the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States met to discuss, among other things, how to counter-balance the growing power of China in the Indo-Pacific. A reading, by...
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Reading JP Koning: MasterCard - Adult Content Gatekeeper? [Ep. 143, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-31T10:39
Mastercard is compelling adult content providers to know their customer... and their content. If not, access will be withheld to payment processing. But Mastercard is an oligopolist, its censors...
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Reading Nicholas Humphrey: Bugs&Beasts Before the Law [Ep. 142, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-30T07:00
Medieval Europeans put animals on trial for various misdemeanors and felonies: murderous pigs sent to the gallows, sparrows prosecuted for chattering in church, a gang of thieving rats let off o...
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Reading Jeff Snider: A Goods Supply SURPLUS!? Not a Shortage [Ep. 141, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-29T07:00
There is a goods shortage on the store shelf, yes. But that does not mean there is a goods shortage - instead it is a warehousing and logistics problem. In fact, we may be facing a surplus of go...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Bonds Know What Inflation Is and Is Not [Ep. 140, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-28T07:21:32
The US Treasury bond market has been correctly anticipating inflation, disinflation, deflation as well as transitory, non-money-related increases in consumer prices for decades. Decades. Maybe w...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Why Do We Think Inflation Expectations Matter? [Ep. 139, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-27T08:25:30
Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Rudd's paper savages the use of inflation expectations in monetary econometrics. He lambasts the profession for producing "minimal direct evidence" and the "next...
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Reading Jeff Snider: 1970s Inflation vs. 2020s Price Increases [Ep. 138, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-26T07:00
Time travel to the early 1970s where we hear the Nixon Tapes, read memorandums, and study Congressional testimony to understand what the Federal Reserve knew, and when they knew it. Turns out th...
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Reading Schopenhauer: Wealth, Poverty, the Nature of Money [Ep. 137, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-25T07:00
Arthur Schopenhauer, in the essay "The Wisdom of Life", favors individual strength of will and independent, reasoned deliberation over the tendency to act on irrational impulses. In the third ch...
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The 2s/10s Treasury Spread 'Conundrum' [Ep. 136, Eurodollar University] from 2021-10-24T10:00
PART 01: The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese cur...
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Reading JP Koning: Crypto Solution to MasterCard/Visa Embargo [Ep. 135, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-23T07:00
Kratom is a legal stimulant but MasterCard and Visa refuse to process payments by kratom vendors. How do vendors work around this embargo? And should these two network oligopolies be allowed to ...
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Reading Maroon Macro: The Bull Case for Decentralized Finance (DeFi) [Ep. 134] from 2021-10-22T07:00
Maroon Macro has become cautiously optimistic about Decentralized Finance's (DeFi) potential to disrupt the traditional financial system. DeFi is extraordinarily elegant in the way in which it r...
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Reading Michael Pettis: "Common Prosperity" vs. "Dual Circulation" [Ep. 133, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-21T07:00
Beijing knows it wants to discontinue the country’s existing, unsustainable growth model. The latest "Common Prosperity" policy will only shift domestic demand at the margins; a full-fledged reb...
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Reading Matt Stoller: Will Monopolies Steal the Infrastructure Money? [Ep. 132, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-20T07:00
We tend to talk about infrastructure in terms of spending amounts. But infrastructure in a monopoly-dominated economy is not just about money, it's about who governs - monopolists, or the public...
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Reading AnalystDC: The Fed's Balance Sheet, Changes and Effects [Ep. 131, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-19T07:00
AnalystDC looks back at how the US money market has evolved in 2021 so far by reviewing the Fed's balance sheet and considering where things could go from here for the Fed, large and small US ba...
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Safest Bank Balance Sheets in Three Generations [Ep. 129, Eurodollar University] from 2021-10-18T09:00:21
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
Typically the show notes are loaded with information about the show, reference material and acknowledgement of the people that helped make the show. Unfortunate...
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Reading Robert Breedlove: Freedom, Truth, Love (plus Bitcoin) [Ep. 130, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-18T06:00
Freedom, Truth, and Love: three creative principles distinguished by uninhibited exchange. Is it any coincidence that voluntary exchange is essential to all three? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski....
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Reading Jeff Snider: US Bank Loans Shrinking in 2021 [Ep. 128, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-16T06:00
Bank balance sheets are expanding in 2021, which is great news if you believe credit is modern money. But a closer look reveals banks are PILING into the SAFEST assets while beating a RETREAT fr...
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Reading Roger Starr: A Kind Word About Money [Ep. 127, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-15T07:00
Money, a necessary evil seems to be best compliment one can pay it. Starr argues that money, in a world of constraints and choices, helps identify price. And for all the kind words written about...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Metals Down vs. Oil Up [Ep. 126, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-14T07:00
Oil prices are intentionally offered as Inflation Exhibit A, even though at best it is a lagging indicator. In 2008, 2011 and 2018 we saw metal prices turn south while oil kept heading north; oi...
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Reading The Fed Guy: Debt Ceiling Procedures [Ep. 125, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-13T07:00
The Fed and Treasury have seen enough debt ceilings to develop a playbook that can be pieced together from past FOMC transcripts and Congressional subpoenas. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
Reading George Friedman: China’s Economic Crisis, Foreign Policy [Ep. 124, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-12T07:00
George Friedman observes that China is embarking on a difficult socioeconomic transition. Paradoxically, the transition will cause observers to underrate the country's strength, in much the same...
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Reading AnalystDC: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility [Ep. 123, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-11T07:00
AnalystDC considers three developments in late-July 2021 that'll affect money markets for years to come: the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, the Group of Thirty recommendations and the Alternative...
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The Volcker Myth [Ep. 122, Eurodollar University] from 2021-10-11T02:39:11
PART 01: The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And ther...
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Reading Maroon Macro: A Trade Idea, Shorting CNH [Ep. 121] from 2021-10-09T07:00
An increased risk-off sentiment, resulting from the Evergrande drama - among several other factors, has perhaps increased the likelihood, as well as accelerated the timeline, of a CNY devaluatio...
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Reading The Fed Guy: Wealth (Side)Effects [Ep. 120] from 2021-10-08T07:00
An unprecedent increase in household wealth from housing, stocks and cryptocurrencies may have structurally changed the US labor market. The Fed, assuming no structural change, may be running th...
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Reading Michael Pettis: What Does an Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China? [Ep. 119] from 2021-10-07T07:00
The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergr...
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Reading Jeff Snider: FOMC 'Let's make it up as we go along!' [Ep. 118, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-06T07:00
The Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
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Reading Jeff Snider: FOMC 'Let's make it up as we go along!' [Ep. 118, Macropiece Theater] from 2021-10-06T07:00
Jay Powell’s Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode and intends to taper monetary accommodation - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. Premature celebration? It reminds Jeff...
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Reading Jeff Snider: 1/3 of US, Canadian Small Businesses Can't Pay Rent [Ep. 117] from 2021-10-05T07:00
Recent polling data from Alignable reveals a difficult small-business environment. Three regional Fed surveys confirm the softness. Is it merely the passing Delta-Covid? Or the labor-shortage? W...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Revisiting 2019's Inventory Overhang [Ep. 116] from 2021-10-04T07:00
Like the bond market and the yield curve, the inventory situation is most often forward-looking. Powell is tapering and ignoring the potential of an inventory overhang, pretty much the same way ...
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Bonds, Treasury Bonds [Ep. 115] from 2021-10-03T10:00
PART 01: US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armage...
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Reading Michael Pettis: Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy [Ep. 114] from 2021-10-02T07:00
The bezzle is the temporary gap between the perceived value of assets and long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences ...
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Reading the BIS: 70 Years of International Banking [Ep. 113] from 2021-10-01T07:00
The Bank for International Settlements summarizes the rise and fall of the offshore eurodollar system. Offshore banking, regulatory arbitrage, financial liberalization and financial innovation c...
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Reading Lyn Alden: Supply Chain Woes [Ep. 112] from 2021-09-30T07:00
Lyn Alden's August newsletter focuses on the ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, and commodities. In many ways, the 2020s decade continues to mirror the 1940s in terms of fiscal policy, mone...
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Reading Jeff Snider: History's Great Monetary Shortages [Ep. 111] from 2021-09-29T07:00
Jeff Snider presents history's great monetary shortages -- the 14th century's Great Bullion Famine, the 20th century's Triffin's Paradox, the 21st century's Eurodollar Famine -- and how human in...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Liquidity Risk Concerns Given Credit Risk 'Solutions' [Ep. 110] from 2021-09-28T07:00
Jeff Snider reviews the recent Bank of Japan experience with quantitative and qualitative easing. The central bank starts off on the wrong foot, focusing on credit quality issues instead of mark...
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Reading Jeff Snider: If a Fed Taper Falls in the Woods... [Ep. 109] from 2021-09-27T07:00
The Fed's expected taper is just empty, insignificant theater. The Fed is tapering never once having answered for headwinds, false dawns, and the world’s true wealth repeatedly suffering under s...
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Ticker Tape(r) Parade? [Ep. 108] from 2021-09-26T18:00
PART 1: Offshore shadow money funds the global economy, but it lies in the shadows; it's off-balance sheet and off-the-regulatory-radar. A good place to get a sense of offshore shadow money is t...
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Reading Karl Marx: The Paris Manuscripts [Ep. 107] from 2021-09-26T07:00
Karl Marx, the 19th-century German philosopher, economist, historian, sociologist, political theorist, journalist and socialist revolutionary, on the confounding and inverting nature of money an...
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Reading Myrmikan: Real Rates Go More Negative [Ep. 106] from 2021-09-25T07:00
Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on real rates, the profligacy of the Federal Reserve, inflation and the path of nominal gold prices. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
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Reading George Friedman: JFK&the Origin of Forever Wars [Ep. 105] from 2021-09-24T07:00
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman asks, 'Why has the United States, the most powerful state (since the Roman Empire) lost three wars in the past 50 years?' A reading, by Emi...
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Reading Jeff Snider: PracTICal Remainders and Reminders [Ep. 104] from 2021-09-23T07:00
A review of August's Treasury International Capital data. The chief benefit is, unlike most who don’t know or can’t read the data, which is pretty much everyone, you at least know in which direc...
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Reading Jeff Snider: Evergrande isn't Lehman but (another) Bear Stearns [Ep. 103] from 2021-09-22T07:00
The mainstream media is asking if China's property developer imminent demise will be the "Lehman" moment. Unlikely. It's more likely this will be yet another Chinese Bear Stearns. The first? Sha...
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Reading Jeff Snider: The Caribbean's Dollar Warning [Ep. 102] from 2021-09-21T10:00
Central bankers had a choice in the 1970s: follow the offshore money, diving headfirst down the rabbit hole; or, ignore it entirely, pretend none of this exists, and then hope by stroke of luck ...
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Reading Jeff Snider: There's Too Little Money Now [Ep. 101] from 2021-09-20T10:00
It’s becoming too obvious to keep overlooking Keynes' statement when little credit-collateral-money, "is...available our wealth suffers stagnation or decline.” The problem is hardly anyone knows...
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Inflation is not a Price Increase [Ep. 100] from 2021-09-19T13:37:26
PART 01: Producer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Producer prices ARE NOT...
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Labor Shortage: The Fed's Get Out Of Jail Free Card [Ep. 99] from 2021-09-13T07:10:12
Labor force participation versus unemployment. Also, labor shortages - are they what we're told? Lastly, the US dollar continues to gain value - a bad sign for the global economy.
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Labor Shortage: The Fed's Get Out Of Jail Free Card [Ep. 99] from 2021-09-13T07:10:12
PART 1: 'Maybe the economy isn't in as good a condition as you economists / academics / technocrats think it is,' says the labor force participation rate. 'The economy is in fantastic shape,' s...
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Wisdom of the Crowds [Ep. 98] from 2021-09-05T17:32:04
PART 01: A lousy labor market report for August is being blamed on a "labor shortage". Also, 'lazy Americans' and 'the delta'. But the real problem is that businesses will not pay a market-clear...
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Taper (but no) Tantrum! Why not? [Ep. 97] from 2021-08-30T15:05:31
Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets sa...
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The dogs bark, but the caravan goes on... [Ep. 96] from 2021-08-22T09:01:25
PART 01: What did the Federal Reserve think about gold and the Nixon Shock in 1971? According to the transcripts they didn't think much about gold, neither pre- nor post-announcement. The Fed di...
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Omens of Bad Luck [Ep. 95] from 2021-08-16T11:28
PART 01: Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Tod...
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Let them Eat SDRs from 2021-08-08T13:37:56
PART 01: Fifty years ago the "Nixon Shock" closed the 'Gold Window' on "international speculators" and killed the Bretton Woods gold exchange era. That's what we're told. Actual...
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Out of the Frying Pan Recession and into... from 2021-08-02T12:02:08
PART 01: Gold Slams! Rapid, huge sales in early morning hours are warnings about a malfunction deep within the plumbing of global capital flows. They're also multi-week, precipitous price declin...
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What FRONTLINE got SO wrong about the Fed from 2021-07-26T08:00:16
FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering big banks, big business and Wall Street with easy money, which reached neither the real economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, b...
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Glowing Orange: Repo Market Collateral Rumble from 2021-07-25T12:44:12
Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral sc...
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Interview-Professor Samuel Williamson: What is that Thing's Value Today? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 90] from 2021-07-22T13:26:37
Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwi...
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Interview-Professor Samuel Williamson: What is that Thing's Value Today? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 90] from 2021-07-22T13:26:37
Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwi...
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Light at the End of the Tunnel from 2021-07-19T16:01:53
PART 01: Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is...
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Götterdämmerung from 2021-07-12T11:36:18
PART 01: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news eithe...
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Reading Jeff Snider on the Fed's Not-Hot Dot-Plot from 2021-07-02T05:00
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on the the 'big news' about the 'hawkish' new Fed forecast implying economic recovery championed by the business press while at the sa...
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Reading Jeff Snider on Central Bankers Having No New Ideas from 2021-06-30T09:39:45
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on yet another central bank study concluding that there are TANGIBLE problems with quantitative easing and what benefits can be observ...
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Reading Jeff Snider on Trouble Ahead from 2021-06-28T11:06:25
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on why inflation is unwelcome directly and welcome indirectly. Also, economic depression and hopelessness have struck the United State...
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The Bond Market Foreshadows from 2021-06-23T12:47:57
PART 01: After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, ...
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Interview: Daniel Want from 2021-06-18T04:00
Daniel Want, the early-21st century Australian philosopher and Chief Investment Officer of Prerequisite Capital, discusses: absence of knowledge at educational institutions, transitory inflation...
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Janitor, Not Central Bank from 2021-06-16T09:16:55
PART 01: What should a central bank be? What does one do? Is what the Fed does 'central banking'? What did Ben Bernanke promise in 2002 that the Fed would never do again -- learning the lesson o...
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Uncertain Shadow Money from 2021-06-07T10:12:01
PART 01: A new measure of the monetary order will be unveiled at the end of this two-part episode. But first, a discussion of uncertainty, incomplete pictures, relativity, perspective and the li...
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Reading Around - Myrmikan on The Path to Hyperinflation from 2021-06-04T05:00
Historian and political economist Daniel Oliver's commentary on why the quantity of currency is less important than the quality of the collateral backing it. In the USA the quality of the Federa...
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Ghost Money, the Eurodollar and Crypto from 2021-06-02T04:00
PART 01: All of a sudden the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program has exploded higher to half-a-trillion dollars. Why? The mainstream, orthodox narrative is that 'this is fine'; a response to ...
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Confessions to the Super Blood Moon from 2021-05-31T02:00
PART 01: On May 26, 2021 the Earth will witness a Super Flower Blood Moon - a sure sign of the apocalypse (again). It is no wonder then that, with the end upon us all, the Federal Reserve took t...
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4 Reasons Why Inflation is Transitory from 2021-05-24T14:33:15
"Inflation" is a generalized, sustained increase in consumer prices. A spike in consumer prices is just that - a transitory spike. Watch as Jeff gives four reasons and examples (2000, 2008, 2021...
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Reading George Friedman on The Myth of a Rules-Based World from 2021-05-21T04:00
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on two concepts of international relations: a liberal international order and a rules-based system. A reading, by Emil Kalinows...
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A Rise in Prices or Dictators or Both from 2021-05-20T10:19:23
PART 01: In the 1930s the economic devastation was so bad that only radical solutions remained. But then, like now in our Silent Depression, radicalism does not mean success necessarily. The key...
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Interview: Allison Fedirka from 2021-05-17T08:02:43
Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balan...
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LIVE! Reaction Answering the WSJ's Greg Ip from 2021-05-14T08:51:49
Might the economy take off? According to a Wall Street Journal opinion column, solid wage growth and unfilled openings point to much less labor market slack than headline unemployment data. Je...
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Is Warren Buffett Beautiful? from 2021-05-12T11:16:31
From 2009-12 Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would stoke inflation, that the dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress and that Treasuries would lose real value. ...
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Interview: Carolyn Sissoko from 2021-05-10T08:06:40
Professor Sissoko focuses attention on the fact that the post-2008 financial system has changed dramatically but that technocrats have not tackled what the changes mean. Sissoko discusses the pa...
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Reading Around: George Friedman on War with China and Russia from 2021-05-07T04:00
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on the (un)likelihood of war with China and Russia. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
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Constrained Money Dealers from 2021-05-03T04:00
PART 01: The rise and fall of an arbitrage trade by hedge funds known as the Treasury cash-futures basis trade. That was the focus of an excellent research paper by two government researchers. B...
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Collateral 'Cloning' from 2021-04-26T14:21:13
PART 01: Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presid...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering the St. Louis Fed from 2021-04-22T10:47:01
In 2014 the St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that despite a MASSIVE increase in money the expected 4 to 6% inflation did not materialize. The researchers suggest it was a "liquidity trap". Yes, a...
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Like 1970s, Like 2010s But Opposite from 2021-04-19T10:39:54
-----PART 01 SUMMARY------
US President Jimmy Carter told the nation that the US dollar's devaluation "is clearly not warranted by the fundamental economic situation". In fact, it was unreser...
The Gospel of Bernanke's Global Savings Glut from 2021-04-14T14:03:42
Karen King of the Harvard Divinity School wasn't the first 'professor' to discover "the long-buried secret of Jesus' marriage." That distinction belongs to fellow Harvard faculty member Robert L...
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The Monetary Shadows from 2021-04-05T23:01:21
"I glanced at the list, running over names (probably misspelled) that meant nothing to me, with my hand on the butt of my righthand gun. That one now contained a very special load. According to ...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Jay Powell from 2021-03-31T10:32:38
So says Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a recent Wall Street Journal opinion column. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Powell's case that the disruption wasn't the Fed's fault and that...
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Commemorating QE's 20th Anniversary from 2021-03-29T13:24:11
Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode 60, in which he observes the 20th anniversary of quantitative easing and notes the unsettling twist in oil futures; also, he reacts to the Federal Reserv...
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Anniversary Special: Top-10 Podcast Intros from 2021-03-23T13:13:37
March 23, 2020 is a day that no financial market participant will forget. It was the day that America's S&P 500 put in its low and stock prices began their climb to "what looks like a perman...
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Interview: Izabella Kaminska from 2021-03-22T06:50:50
Welcome to Making Sense. Jeff Snider and I are joined by a very special guest, Izabella Kaminska who has accomplished many accomplished things, including being the editor of FT Alphaville, the ...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Paul Krugman from 2021-03-18T10:36:49
Will stagnation follow the Biden Boom? So asks New York Times columnist (and Nobel memorial prize winner) Paul Krugman. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Krugman's lament that, though the relie...
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False Dawn(s) from 2021-03-15T17:00:59
Space, the final metaphor. Why do central bankers offer spirographic, retrograde answers? Because they operate within a Ptolemaic paradigm - a geocentric model of our monetary system in which th...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Martin Wolf from 2021-03-10T08:37:30
Wolf ponders what central banks should target (e.g. inflation, asset prices, social justice, nominal GDP). Incredibly at no point in the article was targeting actual money supply considered. WIL...
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It was a dark and stormy depression... from 2021-03-08T07:15:58
"The pen is mightier than the sword." "The great unwashed." "Pursuit of the almighty dollar." These are prhases we have all heard and they come from a single source: 19th century English writer ...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Jon Hilsenrath from 2021-03-03T16:10:12
Inflation problems depend on where you look for them. Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an opinion column in the Wall Street Journal by John Hilsenrath.
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Jon Hilsenrath from 2021-03-03T16:10:12
Should speculative ventures be included in calculations of inflation? What about productive investment? Housing? All transactions? Or just consumer prices?
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Anomalies? Or Triggers? from 2021-03-01T14:46:40
The theme of Making Sense Episode 52 is how an environment reacts to an anomaly. Resilient systems keep these aberrations constrained. But fragile ones can retroactively redefine what had earlie...
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Reading Around: Pettis On Tariffs and US Jobs from 2021-02-26T09:00
Michael Pettis of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by
FT: "Do Not Rule Out a Market Panic Next Month" from 2021-02-22T12:47:05
Part 01: (01:30 to 38:27) What are monetary technocrats / financiers doing to save the world economy? We review: yield curve control in Australia (and Japan!), American regulators tip-toeing awa...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Philip Stevens from 2021-02-21T16:29:04
After decades of market liberalism and fiscal fundamentalism, policymakers are returning to Keynes. Jeff Snider reacts to two recent articles: "Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation"...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering Philip Stevens from 2021-02-21T16:29:04
Why do economists keep getting the policies wrong? Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an opinion column in the Financial Times by Philip Stephens.
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Reading Around: Myrmikan on System-Critical Short Squeezes from 2021-02-18T09:03:55
Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on the systemic consequence of the 1907 short squeeze on United Copper Company and lessons for today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.
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Interbank Netting: The Pressure to Get to Zero from 2021-02-16T10:17:42
Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some experts say there are five ...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering The Economist from 2021-02-15T12:43:10
Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an article from The Economist. The magazine offers three arguments why the US economy might overheat in 2021: evidence that the downturn is temporary; genero...
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LIVE! Reaction: Answering The Economist from 2021-02-15T12:43:10
Will Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus overheat the American economy? Jeff Snider react LIVE! to an article in The Economist.
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Devolution of Financial Memory from 2021-02-08T13:38:49
Sophocles won 24 of the 30 literary competitions he entered, placing second in the rest. Of his 120-plus plays, only seven survive. Eratosthenes, calculated the Earth's circumference with breath...
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Modern Monetary Hypnosis from 2021-01-24T14:24:17
As many listeners have long suspected, your podcast host did, as a child, run away and join the circus. Not dissimilar from a traditional childhood, it was your classic Gypsy camp. If children...
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WSJ Columnist asks Fed: 'What the...?' from 2021-01-19T08:29:37
A recent Hidden Forces podcast with Demetri Kofinas featured professor Kevin Vallier and his new book "Trust in a Polarized Age". Vallier notes that Americans are less trusting than at any point...
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Dr. Copper's Diagnosis from 2021-01-10T13:04:23
Mary Toft had delivered a litter of rabbits - that was the news that reached the court of King George I in 1726. Obstetrician John Howard arrived at Toft's bedside in September where he was pres...
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What's the Score? from 2020-12-24T10:09:41
In the middle of the 17th century, Athanasius Kircher -- "one of Europe’s most successful scholars" -- published "Egyptian Oedipus", a magisterial three-volume folio on Egyptology that "presente...
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Quantum Dollar Mechanics from 2020-12-14T06:59:12
Your podcaster has long been impressed by cinema that presents what is outside the human sensory process; art that conceives and presents what we literally cannot perceive. In 2001: A Space Odys...
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The Weïrd Sisters from 2020-12-07T15:27:38
Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen and Stephanie Kelton are among the world's best known political-economists. Lagarde, was France's Minister of Finance, Managing Director of the International Mone...
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The Case of the Missing Money from 2020-11-30T08:54:23
“The Case of the Missing Money” is not an Arthur Conan Doyle short-story but instead a 1976 essay by well-known economist Stephen Goldfeld who noticed that there wasn’t enough money to justify t...
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Recession Roulette from 2020-11-23T10:24:31
Part 01: What can the late-19th century Long Depression (1873-96) tell us about the early-21st century Silent Depression (2008-2?)? We turn to Henry George, the author of the most popular econo...
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Team Disorder Wrassles the Economy from 2020-11-18T11:03:03
PART 01: US Treasury yields have risen on positive news, especially following the CoVo Vax news from Pfizer. Does it mean reflation has begun? Does it mean the 40-year bond bull market is dead? ...
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Social Contract from 2020-11-11T11:34:20
A social contract is the agreement between government, business, wealthy and ordinary households in how to apportion the costs and benefits of society. The recently concluded (?) American elec...
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Eurodollarween from 2020-11-02T07:50:35
Broadcasting from the kingdom of NYE, I'm Art Bell and this is Coast to Coast AM from the great beyond. Tonight we'll talk to General Johnson Jameson from his bunker complex beneath the Saskatc...
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The Unit Root from 2020-10-26T12:10:39
The bread of this podcast hotdog features Jeff Snider putting into context how far behind the times monetary authorities are, and that all may not be as it seems with the appreciating Chinese cu...
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Bank of Japan, the Monetary Recon Team from 2020-10-19T11:52:45
American economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman entered the economics profession to follow in the footsteps of Hari Seldon, a psychohistorian living on Trantor, approximately 10,00...
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QE2 Syndrome: Making Economics Errata from 2020-10-12T12:38:25
As your podcaster put the finishing touches on Episode 30 word came down from up-on-high: 'We need to do errata!'
Yes! Finally! This podcaster's long-time goal would be a reality: to mak...
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Carrying the Yen Carry Trade into the Light from 2020-10-04T19:00:53
Advanced-economy money centers make the world go round. In the early 1800s London and Paris funded globalization cycles. Berlin and Vienna joined the exclusive club as the century waned; New Y...
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Interview: Brent Johnson from 2020-09-27T08:30:33
In 1969 Johnny Carson was hosting The Tonight Show and, in one particular episode, Bob Hope headlined. After Carson finished interviewing Hope he called out his next guest, George Gobel. To ev...
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Interview: Brent Johnson from 2020-09-27T08:30:33
Jeff Snider and Brent Johnson talk fin de siècle political-economy.
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Duck and Cover from 2020-09-20T12:28:22
US President Harry Truman prosecuted the war to its conclusion, finishing his predecessor's near-impossible task. Then, with bitter irony, History reversed his role as "anchor" for the Second Wo...
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Decade of Disorder? It's "Transitory"! from 2020-09-14T13:00
How much is several? What is a few? If you were to put a numerical value on "probably" would it be more, or less, than "likely"? To your podcaster's great consternation the linguistic gatekee...
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Give Us More Time! from 2020-09-06T18:39:41
Last week, current and former Federal Reserve officials offered a mea culpa, saying the timing of the 2015-18 rate hikes may have curbed a potentially quicker recovery from 2008. Apparently, sev...
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The Discovery of Oz from 2020-08-31T11:56:32
"I am Oz, the Great and Terrible. Why do you seek me?" They looked again in every part of the room, and then, seeing no one, Dorothy asked, "Where are you?"
"I am everywhere but to the eyes ...
The Dollar's Premature Obituary from 2020-08-23T15:02:59
Magrathea. It is one of legendary, advanced-economy planets of the human imagination sitting along side Asimov's Trantor of the Foundation Series, and Cybertron, home of the Autobots and Decept...
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What are they thinking? from 2020-08-17T14:55:54
The final setting of Margaret Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale occurs well into the future, at a symposium of historians examining the Handmaid era. Your podcaster expects a similar, futur...
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What's in the Monetary Toolkit? from 2020-08-09T14:25:24
Life is full of problems. And when particularly irritated by them, we turn to professionals for help. Sure, men - especially the married kind - will insist they can take care of it. Plumbing? ...
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Strike 9! Will the Fed Ever be Called Out? from 2020-08-03T14:09:15
Baseball. The nation's pastime. For well over a century the sport has nestled itself in the romantic nook of America's soul. Its greatness captured in sentimental movies like The Natural and ...
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Gold, Dollar and Treasury battle Deflation, Disorder and Danger from 2020-07-26T20:56:18
Now, admittedly SOME commodity prices have gone up. Half of the agricultural and livestock prices are up year-to-date. Copper is up! But these are the results of supply line disruptions and d...
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The Fractured Flask from 2020-07-20T18:14:08
2008. Albuquerque, New Mexico. The first business meeting of what would become the best-known chemist team since Nobel-prize winners Molina, Crutzen and Rowland was not auspicious. Pinkman want...
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Communism - Don't Call it a Comeback from 2020-07-11T19:06:17
Plato, Kant, Nietzsche, Buddha, Confucius, Rousseau, Aristotle, Bastiat, Molinari, Cicero, Hegel, Hobbes, Kant... LL Cool J. The contemporary philosopher sits on the social and political branch...
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What is... Eurodollar Mailbag? from 2020-07-04T14:30
After half-a-century, some 8,000 episodes and numerous tournament of champions the American television game show Jeopardy! decided to hold its definitive contest to determine its ultima...
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Hey Kid, Want Some Communism? from 2020-06-27T16:00
Published in 1862, Les Misérables by Victor Hugo is "the novel of the century" according to David Bellos, professor of French and comparative literature at Princeton University. When asked on T...
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Reading Tea Leaves from 2020-06-20T16:30
Your podcaster shunned traditional university education and instead sought a guild apprenticeship. Drawn to parapsychology and the occult even as a sma' one, it was natural this podcaster's incl...
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The Great Portnoy from 2020-06-12T11:00
Upon its release the book was met with popular indifference. And no wonder. A cautionary tale about indulgence, extravagance and social upheaval? Right into the racing heart of the Roaring Tw...
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The Worst V Since "V" from 2020-05-29T11:00
In the mid-80s parents allowed their children to watch an innocent-looking television program titled V thinking it was some kind of Sesame Street offshoot. Imagine little John...
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Stock Magiq from 2020-05-22T11:00
We are informed by the financial press the agitated creation of reserves are, to capital market participants, a mix of whiskey and Felix Felicis; liquid courage and luck. The first manifestatio...
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Japanification from 2020-05-15T11:00
It is often said that there is, "nothing new under the sun", and with a few exceptions (e.g. negative nominal interest rates, negatively priced oil, TikTok) that is true, even with a monetary ge...
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No Modern Weimar Republic Here from 2020-05-08T11:30
Quantitative easing, like foie gras, is controversial. The gavage-based production of duck and goose livers is considered cruel to the animal, gorged helplessly as it is in a pen. Central bank...
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Fragile, Complex Systems from 2020-05-01T11:00
In 1929 a plague struck Florida resulting in an overwhelming government response. The consequences were not only agricultural but financial as banks, heavily exposed to the Sunshine State's hor...
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Modern Myths from 2020-04-24T11:00
The Earl of the Eurodollar Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP), Chief Investment Officer at Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski (Listen
Oil Bears, Equity Bulls from 2020-04-17T11:00
Jeff Snider, Chief Investment Officer of Alhambra Investments and Baron of the Balance Sheet @JeffSnider_AIP and Emil Kalinowski, Not Hard on the Eyes @EmilKalinowski.
The World Trade Orga...
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Confronting the Dollar Bull from 2020-04-03T11:00
We draw on five articles posted at Alhambra Investments to draw out the difference between a central bank - central to money supply - and a bank authority - central to a smooth functioning banki...
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Greatest Liquidity Event Since Noah? from 2020-03-27T11:00
Jeff Snider, Alhambra Investments Chief Investment Officer (@JeffSnider_AIP) and Emil Kalinowski (@EmilKalinowski) review three topics. We review three articles Jeff wrote this week, trying to ...
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QE-Infinity is a Laundromat Token from 2020-03-23T11:00
This inaugural episode discusses the goal of building a collaborative, educational community to discuss the creation, destruction and redistribution of modern monetary formats throughout the glo...
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