Podcasts by Notes from the CIO
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The Logic of Asset Management from 2023-09-01T14:46:07
Cash holdings may provide comfort, but inflation diminishes the value of uninvested cash over time. Outside of purchase delays and product substitutes, there is little more consumers can do to dire...
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For Every Seller... from 2023-07-07T18:48:38
So long as one did not carry too substantial an amount of interest rate risk in portfolios, markets provided a solid foundation for generally positive returns over the past quarter and year. While ...
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With Tech Tread Carefully from 2023-06-05T01:30:31
While it’s understandable that investors may get excited about future prospects of new industries and business models, that enthusiasm may need to be tempered when it comes to the associated invest...
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How Much Risk Where? from 2023-03-30T21:20:25
Over the four-plus decades since Americans last braced against a high-inflation environment, investors have seen interest rates sink to fresh lows and rise to lower peaks with each successive econo...
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Contrary Cues from 2023-02-05T02:22:13
In recent months we’ve sought to highlight the notion that investment markets are forward-looking, meaning that they tend to reflect aggregate investor views as to where global economies and the co...
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No Room for Cosplay in Investing from 2022-12-03T03:02:19
Most years see some manner of substantial decline in stocks, even as most full-year tallies turn out positive. This year has proved an exception to that tendency. Thus far, at least—there’s still a...
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Changes at the Margin from 2022-11-05T00:15:10
Seems reasonable to expect that corporate earnings are likely to fall on account of inflation-induced weaker profitability and a slowdown in revenue growth. The growth-stall is likely to stem in pa...
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Bad News is Good News? from 2022-10-07T16:55:10
Many trends suggest progress has been made against inflation, which remains historically elevated across most of the globe. And though mixed in their estimates for how quickly and to what level inf...
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Such Profound Convictions from 2022-09-01T14:26:19
We were having such a good time, weren’t we? After dropping more than 20% from the beginning of the year through mid-June, the market staged a convincing rebound as investors seemingly saw fit to l...
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Every Little Bit from 2022-08-06T01:45:27
With savings, every little bit counts. In our view, one should focus on regular contributions to investment portfolios to build an asset base, in turn allowing investment gains to compound over tim...
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Genuinely Patient from 2022-07-01T21:35:58
Unlike market peaks, when positive sentiment easily supports staying in the game, a market drawdown leads many to question portfolio exposure to equity. Fears of further downside to come not only l...
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How Very Smart You Are! from 2022-05-07T00:47:34
Only once before in the history of the U.S. fixed income market have investment-grade bonds suffered as steep a decline as their current drawdown. The consequence of the impending reversal of stupe...
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On Fiduciary Duty from 2022-04-01T21:31:39
Given the unpredictability of investment markets and corporate fundamentals, we tend to pay minor heed to generally unreliable guesswork about the future, instead emphasizing the facts of market hi...
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Paths Diverged from 2022-02-05T02:35:22
The world has been left bereft of “safe” yield for a decade. And over that time, savers have been required to adjust their perspectives regarding what’s possible in terms of income generation from ...
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Braving Future Performance from 2022-01-07T23:09
While it’s true that we fancy smaller, less-expensive and more profitable companies, those preferences have not been shared among the bulk of investors over the past decade. With relative performan...
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"Be Cheerful." from 2021-12-03T23:06:29
Fresh variation in the COVID-19 virus spooked investors over the Thanksgiving holiday. Fears of the virus rather quickly gave ways to fears of missing out on further market gains, then turned about...
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Inflation and the Planets from 2021-11-05T23:13:13
When something new comes along in Finance, it can be fun to watch market participants line up to present themselves as experts, quick to provide “insight” into what the future will hold. Over the p...
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Worst Week in a Few Weeks! from 2021-10-01T19:42:51
Each spring, we hear echoes of a favorite line among many market watchers: the months of May through October have proved the worst of all in terms of return for U.S. investors, so better to watch o...
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When is a Portfolio Like a Pizza? from 2021-09-03T14:57:39
Financial and social media can leave investors with an overpowering feeling that there’s something missing in their portfolios. Our approach seeks in many ways to counter those pressures. And there...
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So Much Breathlessness from 2021-08-07T00:18:23
On July 19, late-day headlines spoke of “carnage” during that day’s equity market “rout”. “Plunging” indexes prompted scary thoughts of impending market doom. And an evening walk around the neighbo...
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Q221: Quarter in Review from 2021-07-09T15:29:26
Still surging from the pandemic bottom, global stocks continued a run that followed last fall’s pandemic resurgence. After struggling in the first quarter as rates generally rose on account of expe...
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Risk Is. Return Might from 2021-07-02T14:37:19
In our advisory work, we find two perspectives provide the basis for determining a level of exposure to investment risk appropriate for each client: capacity to take on investment risk and willingn...
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Factors With Legs from 2021-06-05T01:21:25
The relative performance of our favored equity characteristics have set a few records over the past year, with small-cap and value-oriented stocks having found renewed favor among investors. Perhap...
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Reminder for Next Time from 2021-05-08T01:43:33
We long ago learned that adhering to an existing plan, seeking to make adjustments only where truly necessary, remains the smarter course for achieving investment success. Often, that means retaini...
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Tendency to Stabilize from 2021-04-02T14:05:48
The rule that all investing carries risk applies even to bonds. The negative price impact of rising rates over the past few months proves that case well. Even so, bonds in our view remain a fine co...
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Brief History of Return and Risk from 2021-03-05T18:12:43
Even without the pandemic or the U.S. election, market returns alone would have made 2020 an abnormal year. Adding to their peculiarity, though, was the fact that global equity markets at one point...
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Not the Only Game in Town from 2021-02-05T22:30:55
For a moment, you’d have thought there were no other stocks in the world. Though a handful of names were caught up in what’s proved so far to have been a short-lived frenzy, one dominated headlines...
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Q420: Year in Review from 2021-01-16T01:34:18
Take out global viral contagion and the U.S. presidential election and we still had a bonkers year from an equity market return standpoint. Fixed income, too, as interest rates fell at one point to...
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A Lesson Revisited from 2021-01-01T15:40:38
Amidst a year of unprecedented turmoil, the domestic stock market experienced what may in hindsight be considered its requisite volatility. U.S. stocks saw two separate declines of 5 percent or mor...
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Things Are Looking Up from 2020-12-05T04:55:35
Now that the presidential election has passed, seems investors have turned their collective gaze toward many stocks otherwise forgotten earlier this year. Smaller-capitalization and less-expensive ...
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Still Undecided from 2020-11-05T00:16:30
No, we don’t mean the election. We mean the market. Once the presidential election has been resolved, investors tend to shift their focuses to the likely big initiatives the winner will seek to exe...
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Four More!! Four More?! from 2020-10-02T14:13:43
Every four years, the United States heads to the polls to determine who will lead the country’s executive branch. And every four years, fears soar that another term for the current president will f...
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Disproportionate Excess from 2020-09-04T14:46:48
History shows that smaller-capitalization stocks have tended to outperform larger-cap stocks over time. Just not always. And just not for the recent past—this year in particular. It still seems far...
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What's to Come? from 2020-08-11T00:39:08
With the global pandemic surging anew, governments around the world are developing additional measures to counteract the macroeconomic strain wrought by widespread illness and restrictive measures ...
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Lamenting the Bounce? from 2020-07-02T18:57:40
The U.S. equity market rests just under 8% from its February 19 peak. Cue worries that we’ve come too far, too fast. Near-term stock valuations may look extended as revenue and earnings sink. There...
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Familiar Themes from 2020-06-06T16:00
Among the equity market themes one learns early on is that market history is not prologue: past performance is not indicative of the future. We learn, too that market performance is not always posi...
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Time for Value...Now? from 2020-05-11T15:51:10
Value stocks have underperformed their Growth peers by a gap never wider in history, leaving some to suggest it’s time to throw in the towel. But history shows that when the performance on a long-h...
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