Podcasts by Notes on the Week Ahead

The Investment Climate from 2023-12-12T11:27:07

As winter weather envelops the homes of New England, our thoughts naturally turn to warmer days and maybe a beach house on Cape Cod. Of course, if you intend to rent such a house for a week next...

Winter Driving: Can the Economy Keep Growing into 2025? from 2023-12-05T11:55:59

One of the least pleasant aspects of winter is driving on icy roads as the snow piles up in front of you. Long experience has taught us that winter driving is possible. But it is slower, with a ...

The Remarkable Resilience of Corporate Margins from 2023-11-27T13:33:52

Last Wednesday, the University of Michigan released its final reading on consumer sentiment for November, with the index coming in at 61.3, up from its flash reading but down from October and wo...

Falling Tensions in a Cooling Economy from 2023-11-13T10:42:34

If you do a quick google search on the phrase “tensions rising”, you get 230,000 hits. If you search the phrase “tensions falling” you get 3,700 hits. One of the cardinal rules of journalism is ...

Tracking the Inflation Slide from 2023-11-06T14:52:23

One almost unnoticed innovation in our modern world is the tracking app. Whether you’re booking a car service, enduring a long flight or just waiting for a pizza, with a click or two, you can fi...

Slowdown Delayed; Cooldown Ahead of Schedule from 2023-10-30T14:05:53

On August 16th, 1858, the first telegraph message was transmitted across the Atlantic on a cable newly laid on the ocean floor. The line speed was slow and the cable failed a few weeks later but...

The Addicted Consumer from 2023-10-23T12:22:42

“We just came for one thing, too”.

Sari and I were meandering toward the checkout in a crowded Costco on Saturday morning and I was reflecting out loud on our accumulation of a substantia...

Investing in World of Increasing Complexity from 2023-10-10T12:52:06

Investors in the week ahead will likely be most focused on the aftermath of the terrible attacks in Israel over the weekend. The consequences of this violence are, of course, first and foremost ...

The Investment Implications of a Rising Federal Deficit from 2023-09-25T15:18:20

In an idealized world of medical practice, you would go to the doctor, describe a few symptoms, undergo a few tests and then listen carefully to the doctor’s diagnosis, prognosis and prescriptio...

The View from the Top of Tightening Mountain from 2023-09-18T12:05:15

To tell the truth, I haven’t done much hiking up mountains recently.  I did scale a few minor peaks, years ago, when our sons were in boy scouts.  However, it was always hot weather heading up a...

Worrying about Oil from 2023-09-11T12:33:48

My father worried out loud, broadcasting his concern about a wide range of issues, ranging from the suspicious surplus of toothbrushes in the upstairs bathroom and his children’s acquisition of ...

Unemployment and Wage Inflation from 2023-09-05T13:28:57

Finally, traditional indicators also may be missing the mark in predicting persistent inflation.  In particular, in the June Summary of Economic Projections, most members of the Federal Reserve’...

Letter from Wyoming from 2023-08-21T11:58:45

For almost 60 years, the British journalist and New York resident, Alistair Cooke, recorded a weekly, 15-minute radio commentary entitled Letter from America. As a teenager, I would listen to it...

Real Rates in the Long Run from 2023-08-14T16:32:29

The only real drawback to my job is the number of flights I have to take - but this is a serious drawback when evening flights get delayed. Without the energy to do any productive work, I often ...

Bull Market Investing from 2023-08-09T14:18:34

To be good long term investor, you need courage and you need brains.  However, you need them in different quantities at different times.  In the depths of a bear market, you mostly need courage ...

The Soft Landing Scenario from 2023-07-31T11:44:46

As the calendar flips to August this week, consumers, workers, investors and the Federal Reserve all have reason to be pleased with recent data. Stock market returns have been strong all year, e...

The Inflation Perfectionists from 2023-07-24T15:05:47

The pandemic was my excuse to abandon piano lessons. 

It wasn’t that I wouldn’t practice or didn’t enjoy pounding away on the keyboard.  The problem was that my piano teacher, Tatiana, is...

The Sin of Wages: A Last, Bad Excuse for Monetary Tightening from 2023-07-10T15:30:50

Over the centuries, an abiding tension among many major religions has been the pendulum of severity. One era will be marked by a relaxed view, where smiling clergy make liberal allowances for mi...

The Investment Implications of Consumer Gloom from 2023-07-05T10:40:52

When I first arrived in this country, 40 years ago this summer, my strongest impression was that America was a land of optimists. European economists, politicians, commentators and consumers all...

Waiting for a Negative from 2023-06-27T12:15:18

I have a sad tale to relate.  After dodging Covid for the last three years, my wife Sari and I were at a wedding two weeks ago and the virus decided to crash the party.  Two days later, I tested...

The Recession Questions: Yes, No, When and How Bad? from 2023-06-20T10:54:25

One of the advantages of being back in the office, when I am actually in the office, is I get to hear a variety of opinions.  These opinions are sharply divided today on the issue of a U.S. rece...

Cooler Inflation and Slower Growth should Convert a Fed Skip into a Fed Pause from 2023-06-12T13:25:33

Markets in the week ahead will be focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. We expect the Fed to leave the federal funds rate unchanged although both the post-meeting statement and the dot plot will ...

The Steady Normalization of the U.S. Labor Market from 2023-05-30T17:19:25

In 1787, on the last day of the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Benjamin Franklin what form of government had been agreed to.  He famously replied, “A Republic – if you can keep it”.  He...

Sizing up the angles on Fed policy from 2023-05-22T17:18:31

I am shockingly, comically bad at golf.  However, that doesn’t stop me from occasionally watching more gifted souls play the game. 

One of their techniques is to examine a putt from multi...

Slow-Motion Slowdown from 2023-05-15T15:47:42

Across the economy, the outlook is for slower growth.  Slower growth in demand, in employment, in profits and in inflation.  Recession is by no means certain.  However, a slow-growing economy is...

Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing from 2023-05-01T13:21:52

On Ireland’s Atlantic seaboard, ten miles west of the town of Lisdoonvarna, stand the majestic Cliffs of Moher.  They are a popular tourist attraction but also a dangerous one – in the 25 years ...

When Money Stops Talking from 2023-04-24T13:44:42

The quantity of money was a big issue in the background of my childhood. There were no money machines or credit cards (at least in our house). So every Monday, my father would write a check for ...

The Road Back to 2% Inflation from 2023-04-17T11:21:21

It seems like a distant memory now, but in the decade before the pandemic, the main preoccupation of the Federal Reserve was boosting inflation, as measured by the headline personal consumption ...

The Real Threat to Dollar Dominance from 2023-04-10T11:56:54

Eliud Kipchoge, the only man to ever run a marathon in under two hours, is in town for next week’s Boston Marathon. In the runup to the race, reporters will no doubt ask him about whether he is ...

The Recessionary Price of a Faster Decline in Inflation from 2023-03-28T14:00:12

In three weeks, I will once again have the honor of running the Boston Marathon as a member of the gasping geezers division of the Dana-Farber Marathon Challenge team. A year ago, as I clambered...

The Economic Impact of Banking Turmoil from 2023-03-20T13:52:22

A good set of brakes is a very comforting thing.  A gentle tap of the foot should produce a quiet and gentle deceleration, as brake pads press up against disc rotors, in a smooth but firm action...

The Investment Implications of a Demographic Bounce from 2023-03-06T14:14

One obstacle to assessing the direction of the American economy is the difficulty in getting a handle on how many people live in this country and how fast that number is growing.  It would seem ...

Investing Beyond The Profit Squeeze from 2023-02-27T11:26:28

Over the years, my standard approach to analyzing corporate profits has been to think of them as the last slice taken from a big national income pie.  The growth of the pie itself is important. ...

A Seasonal Surge (and its Implications for Jobs, Growth, Inflation and Rates) from 2023-02-22T10:30:38

It was 60 degrees in Acton yesterday, as our normally frigid Massachusetts winter continued to be a no-show.  Not that I have any problem with this, since running, rather than skiing, is my exer...

The Lurking Slowdown from 2023-02-06T11:31:03

There is a slowdown lurking.  It is currently hiding so well, in the long grass of statistical anomaly, that many observers, including the Federal Reserve, don’t seem to notice it at all. Howeve...

A Turning Point for the Economy from 2023-01-23T15:06:37

In investing, as in life, it is important to learn from the past, appreciate the present and plan for the future.  This is particularly true at turning points.

In the early weeks of the N...

Debt-Ceiling Danger from 2023-01-17T15:57:41

Last Friday afternoon, amidst the lengthening shadows of a winter sun, the Treasury Secretary delivered an ominous warning: By this Thursday, the U.S. federal debt will reach its legal limit, re...

Resolution and Confidence from 2023-01-03T11:27:18

The word “resolution” has multiple meanings. The most obvious at this time of the year, is a decision to behave differently going forward. In many social sciences, “resolution” refers to a probl...

The Challenged Consumer from 2022-12-19T14:11:46

My first job out of graduate school, in the early 1990s, was as the consumer economist for the economic consulting firm of DRI/McGraw-Hill, in Lexington, Massachusetts.  One weekend each month, ...

The Investment Implications of the Oil Slide from 2022-12-12T14:35:24

At his press conference on November 2nd, Fed Chairman, Jay Powell opined that the window for a soft landing had narrowed.  This was very much in line with his messaging for many months which has...

Redhotnot – The Investment Implications of the Job Market Mosaic from 2022-12-05T12:36:01

At 8:30AM, on the first Friday of every month, the Labor Department releases the monthly jobs report.  By 8:35AM, the network scriptwriters deliver a verdict to the teleprompters – jobs either “...

The Investment Implications of the Housing Slump from 2022-11-22T11:33:02

For many people, I suspect, 2022 will be a year to forget.  However, for millions of home-builders, home-sellers and home-buyers, it will be remembered for the speed with which a housing boom tu...

Recession Risks: Standing on the Edge of a Swamp from 2022-11-15T12:00:20

Markets bounced higher last week in a justifiable show of enthusiasm as the latest CPI data confirmed that inflation is indeed receding.  However, even as investors worry less about inflation th...

The Market-Moving Menu of Data and Events from 2022-10-31T10:58:02

Among the many challenges of parenthood is trying to get your kids to eat healthy food.  As the children get older, the school lunchroom becomes one of battlefields, with some kind of weekly men...

Lifting the Fog of Uncertainty on Growth, Inflation, Politics and Rates from 2022-10-24T13:02:38

At the peak of the railroad boom of the late 19th century, the Framingham and Lowell line was incorporated to transport goods and passengers up and down the western outskirts of Boston.  Over th...

The Monetary Implications of Fiscal Drag from 2022-10-17T15:55:21

On many occasions in my adult life, I have made New Year’s resolutions to become fitter.  As the days of the old year gradually dwindled and my girth gradually expanded, I would commit myself to...

The Slope of the Inflation Slide from 2022-10-10T10:31:21

The Federal Reserve maintains strict rules prohibiting FOMC members from commenting on the economic outlook or monetary policy in the 10 days preceding an FOMC meeting or on the following day.  ...

The Recession that Didn’t Bark from 2022-10-03T12:05:48

A famous Sherlock Holmes story concerns the abduction of a race horse and a guard dog that didn’t bark.  For those who haven’t read the story, I’ll skip over the reason for the dog’s silence.  T...

The Scales of Fundamentals and Price from 2022-09-26T10:45:27

In weighing the value of any security, the scales of financial markets are supposed to maintain a fine balance between fundamentals and price.  The plate of fundamental factors is piled high wit...

Why the Fed should worry less about sticky inflation (but probably won’t) from 2022-09-20T14:00:46

When future historians reflect upon the current age, they might call it “the worry years”.

As America emerges from the pandemic, there are still serious health concerns, a yawning politic...

Job Openings, Recession Risks and Prospects for a Fed Reversal from 2022-09-06T15:43:41

On Saturday, Sari and I made our annual pilgrimage to Kimballs for lobster roll.  Kimball Farm, which started as an ice-cream stand in Westford, Massachusetts, has ballooned into a huge enterpri...

The Investment Implications of Jackson Hole from 2022-08-31T08:52:52

Whatever else anyone may say about Jay Powell’s much-awaited speech in Jackson Hole, it had two distinct virtues. It was clear and it was brief, running to just 1,300 well-chosen words.

I...

A Line in the Sand on Inflation from 2022-08-22T12:16:04

The phrase “drawing a line in the sand” has an unhappy history.  In the U.S., it is said to have originated with Colonel William B. Travis, who drew a line in the sand at the Alamo declaring his...

The Global Inflation War from 2022-08-16T12:26:25

Normally, the great challenge in talking about the global economy is finding a theme.  The economic fortunes of nations are usually driven by such a disparate array of political, financial, demo...

The Inflation Cold Front from 2022-08-08T14:57:24

After weeks of steamy hot temperatures, a cold front is set to move through the Boston suburbs on Tuesday. While the relief will be nice, in truth, the temperature will only edge down from the l...

Twists and Turns on the Road to a Better Investment Environment from 2022-08-02T10:05:40

The long history of financial markets, like most classic novels, is full of misunderstandings, miscalculations and mistakes. Despite all of this, the story normally twists and turns its way to a...

From Allegro to Adagio: Growth, Inflation and the Fed from 2022-07-26T09:06:18

When engaged in the more mundane tasks of my job, I often have classical music playing in the background. A piano concerto, in the hands of a great orchestra and soloist, is a delight to the ear...

The Lag in the Drag from 2022-07-11T12:41:18

Last Friday’s strong jobs numbers came as a relief to many who feared that the U.S. economy was quickly sliding into recession. On its face, the June employment report seems to support further a...

The Quiet Machinery of Repair from 2022-07-05T16:43:09

One minor side effect of this terrible pandemic is that we have all become more educated on our own immune system.  Looked at objectively, it is a masterpiece of evolutionary excellence. 

The Rollover Race between Growth and Inflation from 2022-06-28T12:24:52

In times long gone by, a popular event at town fairs and school sports days was the sack race.  The competitors would assemble at the starting line, each encased up to the waist in a burlap bag ...

Recession Risks and Investment Implications from 2022-06-22T11:27:59

I refuse to believe, despite gathering evidence to the contrary, that I am getting older.  This being my mindset, I am perpetually astonished by the increasing youth of my colleagues.  According...

The Keeping Cool Heads amidst Hot Inflation from 2022-06-15T11:41:10

I have been on many delayed flights recently and have a certain sympathy for the pilots who, having repeatedly told us that we would be taking off shortly, have to continually backpedal due to w...

The Investment Implications of Food and Energy Inflation from 2022-06-06T14:37:56

Following a solid jobs report last week, investors this week will turn their attention to inflation which, to say the least, has been more of a problem this year.  We expect this Friday’s CPI re...

Growth? Inflation? Recession? Principles! from 2022-06-01T10:11:56

My father, otherwise a very accomplished man, never learnt how to type properly. However, he compensated for a lack of skill with an intensity of application. As children, we would hear him behi...

The Investment Implications of a Falling Budget Deficit from 2022-05-16T10:20:21

Last Wednesday, the Treasury Department announced a record monthly budget surplus for April of $308.2 billion.  The report elicited no noticeable market reaction, as investors continued to fret ...

Slowing Growth and the Potential for an Extended Soft Landing from 2022-05-10T10:15:29

In the movies, in order to convey the passage of time, a director will sometimes film a scene as the seasons quickly pass before your eyes.  With wistful music playing in the background, the sno...

The Dollar in a World of Worries from 2022-05-02T17:04:43

In any given year, four big exogenous forces tend to have the most impact on portfolio returns, namely, earnings, interest rates, taxes and the dollar.  While the tax environment appears to be s...

Killing it Softly: How the Fed should Fight Inflation from 2022-04-25T11:45:41

Economic data in the week ahead should highlight a stumble in economic growth and a surge in inflation in the first quarter. While second quarter numbers will likely partly offset both of these ...

The Economy and Markets after a First-Quarter Roller Coaster from 2022-04-12T11:33:29

A number of years ago, as part of a team-building exercise at an overseas conference, I got bullied into taking a ride on a particularly fearsome roller coaster. For someone who suffers from ver...

Where have all the workers gone? from 2022-04-05T09:23:03

Last Thursday, as I headed home from a conference, the car I’d booked to take me to the airport didn’t show up. Luckily there was a taxi nearby so I hopped in and discovered that, in addition to...

Small Paddle, Big Rapids: What the Economy Could Do to the Fed from 2022-03-22T21:54:55

Despite their best intentions, the Federal Reserve sometimes appears to be trying to steer a big boat, through violent rapids, armed only with a small paddle. The reality is that forces well bey...

Getting Going on Monetary Tightening from 2022-03-14T14:37:09

At 5:30AM on Saturday morning, Coach Jack posted on the team Facebook page – the training run was a go.  Just as well.

The Boston Marathon is now five weeks away and as a proud member of ...

Ukraine and the U.S. Economy from 2022-03-07T17:48:49

In the week ahead, the world’s attention will continue to be focused on the horrific human consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  However, American investors will also be considering ...

The Financial Backdrop as Ukraine Waits and Worries from 2022-02-22T11:46:46

Every winter, here in eastern Massachusetts, we are visited by Nor’easters. Each storm is plotted on weather maps days in advance. A low pressure area swoops down from the Rockies, gathers moist...

Ukraine: The Investment Implications of a Loser’s Game from 2022-02-14T12:38:59

Financial markets sold off last week as investors worried about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Before engaging in any analysis of what this could mean for long-term investors, three br...

Interest Rates: How High and How Fast? from 2022-02-07T14:17:32

So far this year, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 1.52% to 1.93%.  This increase has been accompanied by broadly lower equity markets, with value outperforming growth and international...

Feddle from 2022-01-31T11:26:48

In the last few weeks, it seems everyone is playing Wordle. Each morning, a UK website posts a new game and you get six attempts to guess the five letter word. If you guess the right letter in t...

Housing and the Fed from 2022-01-24T11:00:05

n Saturday, at an average home, on an average road in Maplewood, New Jersey, the realtors staged an open house. Even for a January, this was a rare event and parking was at a premium as dozens o...

The Recession Scenario from 2022-01-18T10:41:33

Our baseline view of the world does not include a U.S. recession in the next two years. However, it is certainly possible, and investors would be well advised to consider what it might mean for ...

Shifting Fundamentals Still Point to Higher Rates from 2022-01-10T16:36:05

There is an old and much-quoted saying by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus: “A man never steps in the same river twice” – because it is not the same river and it is not the same man. A very simi...

Pumping the Brakes on the U.S. Economy from 2022-01-03T10:49:44

Growing up in Dublin, my parents were of the firm belief that the streets of the city were safer without David behind the wheel of a car.  Consequently, I first learnt to drive in my early 20s o...

The Fed turns more hawkish…for now from 2021-12-13T14:09:46

When our children were very young and they committed some transgression, we had a rule in our house. It wasn’t enough to say sorry. You had to say what you were sorry for. That way, we had some ...

The Great Worker Shortage from 2021-12-06T12:00:26

Despite a disappointing gain in non-farm payrolls in November, numerous recent data points show an extraordinary excess demand for workers.  This excess demand won’t persist forever.  However, i...

The Investment Implications of Omicron from 2021-11-29T10:33:46

Financial markets tumbled last week as reports spread of a new, highly-mutated variant of Covid-19 which could be more contagious than the Delta variant and which could evade some of the immunit...

More Clarity and Less Stimulus from Washington from 2021-11-22T15:18:13

The week ahead will, of course, be dominated by Thanksgiving, leading, appropriately, to less focus on financial markets. That being said, this should also be a week of greater clarity on fiscal...

Why Inflation still looks mostly Transitory from 2021-11-15T16:22:03

Financial market commentary in the week ahead will likely center around the question of inflation.  The headlines speak for themselves.  CPI inflation jumped to 6.2% year-over-year in October, i...

Getting Back on the Recovery Track from 2021-11-08T17:29:51

My first summer job as a teenager was in the mailroom of a Dublin law-firm. 

The more intellectual duties of this position involved substantial paper-folding, envelope-licking and a daily...

The Pandemic and Financial Waves from 2021-11-01T18:33:56

It feels like so long ago, but back in 2019, the economic and financial environment was remarkably placid. Real GDP growth was plodding along at 2.3% pace, unemployment drifted down to end the y...

The Stagflation Scare from 2021-10-18T09:26:26

Every summer since 1960, the World Lumberjack Championships have been held in Hayward, Wisconsin, a small community in the north west of the state.  Among the featured events in this and similar...

Facing Reality on Growth and Inflation from 2021-10-11T09:42:13

On Monday, I have the privilege of running the Boston Marathon for a third time on behalf of the Dana Farber Cancer Institute.  I love being part of the team – despite many difficult personal st...

The American Consumer: Still Ready to Drive the Recovery from 2021-09-27T14:19:38

I remember the day when I first appreciated the importance of the American consumer.

It was the winter of 1982 and I was huddled around a table with some fellow econ students in ...

Haircuts and Roulette Wheels: Are we “Due” for a Correction? from 2021-09-20T15:48:03

Like most people, I suppose, I get my hair cut every four weeks. If, either by consulting the calendar or the mirror, I am “due” for a haircut, I head off and get one. The passage of time or the...

Washington games and their consequences for risks, taxes, stimulus and investing from 2021-09-13T11:50:39

There is an old house with a box of dynamite in the attic.

Every few years, for as long as anyone can really remember, the children of the house have brought the box downstairs and played...

Speedbumps on the Road to Recovery from 2021-09-07T09:41:41

The parking lot of our local high school is fortified by great ranges of speedbumps. These ancient mounds of asphalt were erected in the distant past by school authorities, presumably in tribute...

Monetary and Fiscal Timetables from 2021-08-30T15:40:28

Investors, in the week ahead, will have little time for financial analysis. The headlines will be dominated by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the terrible impact of Hurricane Ida in Lo...

The Profits Wave from 2021-08-23T10:40:01

On March 23rd of last year, at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the S&P500 briefly traded below 2,200.  Since then it has more than doubled, surfing on a wave of corporate profits, in a se...

The Investment Implications of a Mutating Economy from 2021-08-09T10:52:33

Much has been written about the mutating virus and how its more contagious Delta variant has spurred a surge in cases, hospitalizations and fatalities.

However, the economy is also mutati...

New Palette Same Picture from 2021-08-02T17:25:54

Every few years our talented colleagues in marketing tell us we need a new palette for the Guide the Markets. They’re right of course – staring at the same colors, year after year, gets boring. ...

The Variants and the Vaccines from 2021-07-19T13:31:23

The week ahead will be a quiet one for economic data and a busy one for corporate earnings. It could also be a pivotal one in Washington as the Biden Administration tries to advance its agenda i...

Speeding More Slowly from 2021-07-12T14:21:07

My wife, Sari, was born with a lead foot. 

By all rights, she should have accumulated a bountiful harvest of speeding tickets over the course of her career.  But she understands how the s...

After the Storm from 2021-07-06T10:57:12

When my wife, Sari, was 9 years old, a tornado touched down in Grand Rapids, Michigan and destroyed most of her home.

Luckily she and her family were at her grandparents that eve...

The Season of Supercharged Demand from 2021-06-28T10:33:53

After a long period of absence, I’ve visited New York multiple times in the last month. Each time, the city has seemed more bustling than the week before, with fewer masks, more crowded restaura...

Why the Bond Market is Ignoring Inflation from 2021-06-14T10:04:06

Some months ago, as the snow melted off the lawn, a rabbit appeared at the end of our back yard. Our twin shih tzus, Buddy and Bruiser, spotted the intruder and, barking furiously, headed off in...

The Fed’s Forecasts from 2021-06-07T09:21:47

Next week, the Federal Reserve holds its fourth FOMC meeting of the year.  After the meeting, they will release a statement, very likely communicating no change in policy.  Fed Chair, Jerome Pow...

The Evolving Expansion from 2021-06-01T10:34:15

I recently read a book, entitled The Code Breaker by Walter Isaacson, about a revolution in gene editing prompted by the discovery of something named CRISPR in bacterial DNA. I won’t delve into ...

U.S. Housing - Booming not Bubbling from 2021-05-25T09:30:32

In 1895, at the age of 60 and in some financial difficulties, Mark Twain embarked on a speaking tour of the British Empire to pay the bills. He later published an account of his travels in a boo...

Midterm Report Card from 2021-05-17T13:58:30

The all-boys Catholic school where I spent my formative years was a traditional establishment.  The air was thick with chalk dust and a steady tension between a rebellious student body and an es...

The Jobs Mosaic and the Outlook for Interest Rates from 2021-05-10T10:44:36

Last Friday’s April Jobs report was clearly much weaker than expected. On average, analysts expected a payroll job gain of 1,000,000, with the unemployment rate falling from 6.0% to 5.8%. In the...

The Washington Menu from 2021-04-26T12:16:10

On May 22nd, my wife and I plan to eat dinner at a restaurant.

In normal times, such a news item would not exactly make the family headlines.  But since the pandemic struck, we have taken...

Commodities and the Risk of Inflation from 2021-04-19T11:41:59

Memories of the great inflation of the 1970s have faded in the public’s consciousness.  Half of today’s population wasn’t even born when inflation stalked the land and, in the decades since, the...

Inflation, Taxes and the Need for Mindful Investing from 2021-04-12T15:27:44

On Friday, I had the privilege of speaking at the annual strategic investment symposium run by the College of Charleston in South Carolina.  Sadly, like everything else over the past year, the c...

Double-Dose from 2021-04-05T13:29:53

The economy is experiencing the first effects of a powerful double-dose vaccine of broad inoculation and fiscal stimulus.  The reality is that forecasts remain very uncertain.  The pandemic rece...

The Calm before the Surge from 2021-03-29T11:43:33

It has been, by any reasonable measure, an eventful first quarter. At the start of the year, the pandemic was raging and vaccines had barely begun to roll out. Today, despite a recent tick up in...

Runway for the Rotation from 2021-03-23T11:17:20

In recent months, falling political uncertainty, two powerful rounds of fiscal stimulus and the rollout of covid-19 vaccines have resulted in a long-anticipated rotation in markets. Since early ...

Time for a Fed Change of Tune from 2021-03-15T10:20:21

The pandemic has had an unfortunate impact on my piano practice. 

In truth, I have never been a promising student - my musical efforts have always rather resembled roadwork on an overused...

Boil then Simmer from 2021-03-08T09:45:38

As a hungry child, growing up in a large family, some forays into cooking were essential.  My early rice-making experiments, however, were exercises in frustration.  I would start with a large s...

Interest Rates and Equities in a Strengthening Economy from 2021-03-01T11:46:44

The week ahead will be a busy one for market-moving events and economic data.  However, beyond the noise, investors will continue to mull two crucial questions: First, how far could interest rat...

Interest Rates in an Early Spring from 2021-02-22T11:26:15

Long-term interest rates have risen sharply in 2021 so far, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond climbing from 0.93% on January 4th to 1.34% by last Friday.  This move is a logical reacti...

Investing With a Lead from 2021-02-16T11:36:35

In a year when everything has been different, it was comforting to watch an almost normal Super Bowl with Tom Brady, albeit wearing the wrong uniform, winning yet again.  It wasn’t that close a ...

A New Year for China from 2021-02-08T10:45:31

This Friday, February 12th, marks the start of the Chinese New Year and the Chinese people, like the rest of humanity, will say a hearty good riddance to the last year with hopes for easier time...

The Race to Full Employment from 2021-02-01T10:41:30

In two weeks, in Daytona Beach, Florida, 40 cars will compete for the most coveted prize in NASCAR.  As the cars slowly circle the track in the pace laps before the green flag drops, the noise o...

The Pandemic Crisis and the Policy Reaction from 2021-01-26T12:44:43

In most decades, there are dramatic events that interrupt the course of history and the last twenty years have seen at least three obvious examples of this.  However, more often than not, it is ...

The Investment Implications of Biden Rescue Plan from 2021-01-19T13:39:11

Last Thursday, ahead of the inauguration, President-elect Biden outlined proposals which, if implemented, could have profound social and economic effects as well as impacts on the broad directio...

The Price of Partisanship from 2021-01-04T10:44:16

At the start of a new week and a new year, investors have plenty to think about.  Despite the rollout of vaccines, the pandemic has worsened in recent weeks, dragging on the global economy.  U.S...

The Investment Implications of the Stimulus Deal from 2020-12-21T11:46:22

In Newgrange, just north of the River Boyne in County Meath, Ireland, there exists a giant burial tomb, constructed, it is estimated, around 3200 BC and measuring over an acre in area .  Little ...

What the Fed Can’t Fix from 2020-12-14T11:31:19

No parent can ever forget the day their child was born.  From that moment on, you’re completely responsible for another, entirely helpless, human being.  And so you do everything you can to love...

The Need for Support more than Stimulus from 2020-12-07T10:31:13

A week ago, President-elect Biden hurt his foot while playing with Major, one of his rather rambunctious dogs.  Following a CT scan of his injury, it was determined that he had suffered a hairli...

The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar from 2020-12-01T12:44:45

Following knee-jerk flight-to-safety bounce as the pandemic struck, the U.S. dollar has fallen in recent months and is now down over 6% year-to-date against the euro and over 4% year-to-date aga...

The Winter Wave and the 2021 Rebound from 2020-11-23T19:31:55

Currently, a 7-day moving average of the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 exceeds 170,000 while a 7-day moving average of fatalities is above 1,500.  While most people are very worried abou...

A Long-Term Perspective on Investing from 2020-11-16T09:33:09

Of all the challenges facing investors in this blighted year, maintaining a long-term perspective may be the hardest.  In recent weeks, markets have swayed back and forth in reaction to case cou...

Mapping out the road ahead from 2020-11-10T13:05:07

There was a time, long before GPS or the need to select the accent of the artificial being that would bark driving directions at you, when people consulted road maps. On trips abroad, my wife, S...

Recovery Realities from 2020-10-26T10:35:06

A few years ago, just when I’d started training for a big race, I strained my Achilles tendon.  Being an Irishman, I couldn’t, of course, bring this evidence of age and infirmity to the attentio...

Reversing the Population Pause from 2020-10-19T11:32:27

It always requires discipline to look beyond the next few weeks and months and take a long-term view. In the short run, investors remain focused on election uncertainty and how the once-again wo...

The Fed’s Timetable from 2020-10-12T12:05:54

Turbulence defines today’s investment environment, with great waves of uncertainty surging from the pandemic, the election, fiscal policy and a slowdown in what had been, to this point, a sharp ...

The Investment Implications of a Contested Election from 2020-09-28T11:36:49

For most Americans, November 3rd can’t come soon enough.

U.S. presidential election campaigns are always hideously long and this one has felt particularly painful, with such a deep divide...

The Problem with MMT from 2020-09-21T11:50:55

For most of the last 40 years, the United States, like most developed economies, has suffered from a lack of demand for goods and services. This has contributed to a steady slide in inflation. M...

The Pandemic Marathon from 2020-09-08T12:48:15

This week, I, like about 20,000 others, will attempt to complete the virtual Boston Marathon.  I had signed up again with the Dana Farber Marathon Challenge team to run it in April, after a rath...

An Exuberant Rally in an Incomplete Recovery from 2020-08-31T13:31:14

English, as spoken in Ireland, is full of colloquialisms, phrases which are plain and clear to the local population and entirely mysterious to visitors.  Of course, Irish people don’t realize th...

Average-Inflation Targeting in a Washington without Hawks from 2020-08-24T11:26:23

Washington Hawks flourished in the late 1970s and 1980s, when deficits and inflation were seen as significant threats to the nation. However, their numbers have dwindled in recent years due to p...

The Human Implications of the Washington Stalemate from 2020-08-17T18:58:19

The title of these weekly articles often starts with, “The Investment Implications of…..”

This is usually appropriate since almost all big issues have investment implications and the focu...

The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge from 2020-08-10T11:11:43

Apparently, the hard-working analysts at the Congressional Budget Office threw in the towel on Friday afternoon. They were scheduled to release their estimates of the budget deficit for July but...

The View from the Base of Recovery Mountain from 2020-08-03T10:38:53

New GDP data released last week confirmed that the 2020 recession has been the deepest in over 70 years, with a peak-to-trough decline in real output of 10.6%. This, of course, was already evide...

An Antidote to Risk from 2020-07-28T14:49

Last week, I was preparing for a zoom call with some of our client advisors at JPMorgan Asset Management, by reviewing a list of questions they had kindly supplied in advance, and I came across ...

The Backroads of Economic Recovery from 2020-07-06T10:07

In life before the pandemic, (and it seems like years ago), Sari and I would often drive from our home in Massachusetts to New York for the weekend. The destination was always fun – seeing the k...

The Investment Implications of a Rolling-Wave Pandemic from 2020-06-29T12:52:40

In the week ahead, as has been the case for most of the year, markets will likely take their cues from medical rather than economic data. The key question is whether America will see a second wa...

Risks to the Market from 2020-06-15T18:12:59

In recent weeks, as stocks have rebounded strongly from their March lows, many have asked if the market has come too far, too fast. Thursday’s sharp selloff may have been an expression of that c...

The Patchwork Quilt from 2020-06-01T11:40:25

In the week ahead, America will be focused on the killing of George Floyd and its aftermath. These are difficult days for our country, beset as we are by a pandemic, a deep recession, political ...

Patterns of Recession from 2020-05-26T10:36

In the early days of her marriage, my mother tried to achieve the almost impossible goals established by society for a 1960s wife.  Apart from tending to the needs of my somewhat Victorian fathe...

Lessons from East Asia from 2020-05-05T10:18

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Unemployment Rate for April, which will undoubtedly be the single ugliest economic statistic of my lifetime. We estimate that, based ma...

Inflation risks in the wake of the pandemic from 2020-04-27T23:36

In the classic Roadrunner skit, the Coyote buries one ACME box of dynamite beneath a pile of birdseed, strings the wires to a detonator hidden behind a rock, waits for our hero to arrive and sta...

The Road to Recovery from 2020-04-20T23:35

Every summer when I was growing up, we would spend a week or two on holiday in the West of Ireland.  These trips would always start in discomfort, as I was one of a large number of children squi...

Why the stock market isn't more worried from 2020-04-13T23:34

In this uniquely repetitive era for all of us, Saturday marked a first for my wife, Sari, and I. Armed with a sharp pair of scissors and with a manic gleam in her eye, she attacked the task of c...

The Investment implications of the CARES act from 2020-03-30T23:34

Last week, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a huge package of federal spending and tax cuts, primarily aimed at helping the economy weather the rec...

Holding an economy in suspended animation from 2020-03-23T23:33

The problem with COVID-19 is that it is both sufficiently contagious and sufficiently lethal to exact a terrible human toll.  This toll, as can be seen from the mortality figures from China and ...

The Investment Implications of COVID-19 ; an update from 2020-03-16T23:31

The spread of COVID-19 continues to have a dramatic impact on lifestyles, economic activity, monetary and fiscal policy, and financial markets. 

The year of the virus from 2020-03-02T23:30

2020 has quickly become the year of the virus. It should, of course, first be recognized that, for some families around the world today and, sadly probably many more in the months ahead, issues ...

When Markets drift apart from 2020-02-18T23:29

Springing to life nearly a mile above sea level, the Zambezi River gathers strength, speed and tributaries for more than two hundred miles before hurtling over the Chavuma Falls in Western Zambi...

Adjusting strategy for slower growth from 2020-02-10T23:28

Despite a strong January jobs report, real economic growth is continuing to decelerate in the first quarter of 2020 and could fall below 2% year-over-year for the first time since 2016.

Virus from 2020-02-03T22:57

Last week, I decided to avoid shaking anyone’s hand. It’s not that I have a virus.  It’s just that my job, which involves lots of plane travel and hand-shaking, make me particularly susceptible ...

Getting to 21 without going bust from 2020-01-21T04:01

Among the card games of my misspent youth was a game called Pontoon. The rules of Pontoon are very similar to Blackjack – the object is to get as close to 21 as possible without going over.

Stable Growth, Fading Risks and Rising Valuations from 2020-01-13T04:01

On economic news, the December Jobs report generally suggested stable growth. The payroll job gain, at 145,000, was slightly weaker than consensus but not alarmingly so.

Understanding Underreaction from 2020-01-06T04:01

25 years ago, I had the privilege of working with a very smart and well-respected strategist at a Wall Street sell-side firm.

Hot and Cold Wars from 2019-12-30T04:01

My wife, Sari, and I have a long-standing disagreement about how warm our home should be.I contend that a man shouldn’t have to wear an overcoat in his own house just to ward off frostbite.

A Turning Point in Trade Turmoil from 2019-12-16T06:04

There’s an old saying that the reason some people bash their heads against the wall is because it feels so good when they stop. Many economists would see last week’s trade news in the same light...

Holding pattern from 2019-12-10T04:01

For investors, the market environment seems to be in a holding pattern, with little movement in economic fundamentals and a slow melt up in equity prices. For those trying to while away the time...

Extra Toothpaste in the Tube: The Remarkable Elasticity of U.S. Labor Supply from 2019-12-02T04:01

The week ahead will be a busy one for economic data, with global PMI numbers on both manufacturing and services and U.S. readings on Light-Vehicle Sales, International Trade and Consumer Sentime...

Giving Thanks and Planning Ahead from 2019-11-25T04:01

This week, most Americans will be hopefully be focused on family and food rather than the economy and markets. However, at some stage over the long weekend, a few may decide that they have had a...

Fiscal Truth and Investment Consequences from 2019-11-18T04:01

America’s finances have been deteriorating for almost two decades. In October 2000, the Treasury Department announced a budget surplus for the just-ended fiscal year of $236 billion or 2.3% of G...

The Inflation Corridor from 2019-11-11T04:01

My weight never changes. For pretty much all my adult life, I have looked down at the same small range of numbers on the bathroom scales. ... Much the same could be said of inflation in recent d...

A Sudden Change in Seasons: Investing in a Slower-Growing Economy from 2019-11-04T04:01

Last week, the U.S. economy saw a sudden and definitive transition and settled into a path of slower growth.

Jigsaw from 2019-10-29T04:01

The next few days will see a blizzard of news impacting financial markets. For investors, the most logical approach may be to look at the headlines one at a time and then see how they can be lin...

The Problem with Profits from 2019-10-21T04:01

The Tax Act of 2017 was a bit like a pair of speedy running shoes for U.S. corporate earnings. It allowed for a short-run burst of strong year-over-year gains. However, since the start of this y...

Winning Ugly from 2019-10-14T04:01

Entering the fourth quarter of the year, nothing seems easy for investors either and there are a number of issues that are making it difficult for markets to move higher from here. However, it i...

Close Calls from 2019-10-07T04:01

The financial environment facing U.S. investors in the year ahead will involve some very close calls.

2020 Vision and Political Distortions from 2019-10-01T04:01

My eyesight isn’t what it used to be.It’s not quite as bad as my wife thinks it is, but if I’m watching a football game or trying to read slides from the back of a room, I now don a pair of spec...

Why the Fed shouldn’t cut rates on Wednesday (but probably will) from 2019-09-16T04:01

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will conclude its September policy meeting. Futures' markets have priced in a high probability that they will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and ...

Recession or Resilience: The Hiring Tiebreaker from 2019-09-09T04:01

In my admittedly conservative opinion, modern rackets have diminished the game of tennis as a spectacle. Booming serves from both opponents have led to fewer competitive games, with many sets tu...

Filling in the Demographic Pothole from 2019-08-26T04:01

In America today, there is an obsession with how to stimulate demand, with fiscal policy, monetary policy and currency policy all being deployed to rev up the economic engine. However, America i...

The Message from the Yield Curve from 2019-08-19T04:01

In days of yore, the sight of seagulls wheeling over an inland forest or fields was taken as a sure sign of a storm at sea. In a similar vein, last week, many investors took the sight of an inve...

Investing for the Middle Run from 2019-08-12T04:01

I have always been a middle-distance runner. I think this serves me well today as, while many strategists and financial advisors talk about investing as a marathon, it is essentially a middle-di...

The Investment Challenge from Washington Policies from 2019-08-05T04:01

The economic recovery that began in 2009 has proven its endurance many times and is now the longest expansion in history. Our base case forecast is that it will continue into 2020 and probably b...

New Brush Strokes for the Big Picture from 2019-07-29T04:01

The week ahead, like last week, will be crammed with important market-moving events and data points. The challenge for investors will not be in predicting instant market reactions to this new in...

Summer Sequels from 2019-07-22T04:01

The formula in Hollywood today lacks imagination. It's all about remakes and sequels. Financial markets, too, are seeing a series of sequels and a few are opening this week.

The Investment Implications of Excessive Stimulus from 2019-07-15T04:01

In the financial landscape of 2019, the Federal Government and Federal Reserve are playing the parts of over-indulgent grandparents, the markets are cast as the over-stimulated grandkids and inv...

Chairman Powell’s Message from 2019-07-08T04:01

On Wednesday and Thursday of this week, Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, will deliver his semi-annual testimony to Congress on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. As he prepares, while he ...

Can the Fed stop at just two rate cuts? from 2019-07-01T04:01

My wife, Sari, is an excellent cook and sometimes, when I return from a long day, I'm met at the front door by the delicious scent of freshly-baked chocolate-chip M&M cookies. The problem is, wi...

Schrodinger’s Market from 2019-06-24T04:01

I should state, at the outset, that I do not profess to have any deep understanding of quantum mechanics. However, the U.S. bond market and the U.S. stock market seem to coexist in alternative r...

The Fed Shows its Hand from 2019-06-17T04:01

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will hold its fourth meeting of the year. The Fed is not ready to change interest rates yet.

Nice Levels – Shame about the Pace from 2019-06-10T04:01

Following Friday's May jobs report, and in reaction to slower growth, lower inflation and trouble in the global economy, the Fed is clearly taking a more dovish stance, making at least two rate ...

Investing for a Middle-Case Scenario from 2019-06-03T04:01

Commercial interests dictate that the public must always be shocked or scared out of their complacency and so the "worst case scenario" will always get top billing.

The Slowdown is Coming -Take Two from 2019-05-28T04:01

Despite a better than expected outcome from earnings season, the economy once again appears set for a slowdown with second quarter economic growth potentially coming in at less than 1% annualize...

Adjusting to Demographic Reality from 2019-05-21T01:01

I ran in a local 5K race over the weekend. As the assorted participants milled around at the start, I noticed just how many of them looked on the young side. But this happens more often these da...

Tariffs and the Lessons of History from 2019-05-13T01:01

One of the great lessons of history is to avoid slavishly applying the lessons of history. A particularly tragic example of this relates to the First and Second Gulf Wars. The relative ease with...

The hierarchy of monetary mistakes from 2019-05-06T01:01

The U.S. economy of 2019 is, for the most part, a very healthy one and this is fully reflected in the valuations of stocks and bonds. However, it is a complex environment for the implementation ...

Investment implications of 'All systems go' from 2019-04-29T01:01

The week ahead will see a flood of data which will amount to an all-systems check on the investment environment. The numbers are likely to be positive. However, for investors this should not be ...

Slowdown is coming from 2019-04-22T15:29

Just over eight years ago, HBO launched its very successful series, "Game of Thrones," set in the mythical medieval kingdom of Westeros. The first episode was entitled "Winter is Coming," and we...

Federal credit card day from 2019-04-15T01:01

For most of the United States, April 15 is the day when annual tax returns are due and every year, at around this time, the Tax Foundation announces "Tax Freedom Day." The idea behind Tax Freedo...

Down the middle of a narrowing road from 2019-04-08T01:01

In a narrowing road, it is best to stick to the middle. And in the spring of 2019, the U.S. economy is moving steadily down the middle of a narrowing road.

Water stops from 2019-04-01T01:01

After a downhill cascade in the fourth quarter, global risk assets have staged a steep assent in the first quarter of 2019 and, this being the case, as we move into the second quarter, it seems ...

Framing the Fed from 2019-03-25T01:01

In the golden age of Hollywood, before the era of special effects, the success of a movie depended to a large extent on the storyline. One frequently used construct was the wrongful arrest of an...

Delaying deadlines from 2019-03-18T01:01

All my life, I have been running against clock and calendar. I pretend to hate the frenzy and wish for more flexibility. But the truth is, I couldn't really work any other way. Deadlines force d...

Wheels down for soft landing from 2019-03-11T01:01

Friday's Jobs report was essentially "wheels down for landing" on this long economic expansion, as the economy tries to navigate a smooth transition from 3% growth to a more sustainable 2%. Howe...

Why deficits matter - The problem with one more steak from 2019-03-04T00:01

Should an overweight man, with elevated cholesterol, eat a 32-ounch steak? Probably not, you might say. Provided he stays comfortably seated in his chair, no short-term problems may ensue. Howev...

The extra sixpence from 2019-02-25T00:01

One of Charles Dickens’s most lovable characters, Mr. Micawber, offered a young David Copperfield sage advice on personal financial management. Spending sixpence under your income causes no prob...

Political lions and corporate cattle from 2019-02-19T00:01

In the last scene of Sydney Pollack's beautiful movie "Out of Africa," two lions gather on the hero's grave and look out at the cattle on the plain below. It is a princely scene — an assumption ...

Decaffeinated economy from 2019-02-11T00:01

It is possible, I am told, for a person to function perfectly adequately for an entire day without caffeine. For myself, however, I need a large cup of Joe first thing in the morning, followed s...

Microwaves and markets from 2019-02-05T00:01

Last weekend, I installed a new microwave in our kitchen. Based on the directions, it was going to be easy -remove the old microwave from the wall plate, replace it with the new one, and then us...

Labeling the boxes from 2019-01-28T00:01

In his Notes on the Week Ahead, Dr. David Kelly examines the economic implications of the government shutdown, the peak of the earnings season, the January employment report, Chinese trade talks...

Wounded Warriors from 2019-01-23T00:01

There is a famous old John Wayne movie, set in Ireland, called The Quiet Man. It is, to be honest, not a particularly authentic portrayal of my native land, but the plot is strong and includes a...

Earnings and the fog of Wall from 2019-01-14T00:01

The week ahead will be dominated by fourth-quarter earnings reports and increasing concerns about the damage being inflicted upon the economy by the government shutdown.

Momentum investing, momentum economics, Washington from 2019-01-07T00:01

Last summer, as part of my long-standing goal to get more cultured, I read the novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. While many people make fun of its extravagant length, it is actually a great ya...

Investment implications of stock market swoon from 2018-12-31T00:01

Every stock market correction is different, but the equity market swoon of the fourth quarter of 2018 seems particularly unusual in the disconnect between the fundamental forces driving markets ...

Happy Holidays! from 2018-12-24T00:01

We wanted to wish you a happy holiday season from all of us here on the global Market Insights strategy team. Please tune in again next week for a new Notes on the week ahead.

One Sword and Three Dragons: What the Fed Should Do Next from 2018-12-17T00:01

Rudyard Kipling’s first qualification for manhood could equally be applied to the nerve required of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who meet this week to decide whether to hike...

A better way to forecast growth from 2018-12-11T00:01

Like the fishermen of old, many investors today are looking at relatively crude indicators such as recent market volatility or the shape of the yield curve to forecast the path for the U.S. econ...

Reduced risks from 2018-12-03T00:01

The week ahead will be dominated by a reassessment of risks which, for the most part, appear to be diminishing. In particular, markets should react well to some easing in trade tensions and grea...

Chinese-American chicken from 2018-11-26T00:01

"Hey, Toreador!" Buzz yells. "She signals. We head for the edge … and the first man who jumps is a chicken!" In 1955's "Rebel Without a Cause", the most celebrated movie in James Dean's short ca...

Giving thanks for low inflation from 2018-11-19T00:01

This week, families and friends all over America will be sitting down together to celebrate Thanksgiving. In many homes, there is a tradition of going around the table, with each person saying w...

Pay, wait or forget about it from 2018-11-12T00:01

The October unemployment rate, at 3.7%, is at its lowest level since December 1969. Continued unemployment claims last week, at 1.623 million are at their lowest since July 1973. And job opening...

Cyclical implications of mid-term elections from 2018-11-05T00:01

The week ahead will be a busy one as investors process the implications of recent strong economic reports, the Federal Reserve holds its seventh FOMC meeting of the year and the nation votes in ...

Grass beneath the leaves - Fundamentals still supporting from 2018-10-30T01:01

A financial nor'easter blew through global stock markets in October. Through last Friday, the S&P500 had fallen 8.7% for the month, the MSCI EAFE had declined by 9.9% and the MSCI EM had dropped...

Friday night lights out from 2018-10-22T01:01

Last Friday, as we often do on Fridays, my wife and I had dinner at Legal Sea Foods in the Burlington Mall and afterwards, we strolled around the mall, ice cream in hand, watching the comings an...

A tumble without a theme from 2018-10-15T01:01

It’s early Monday morning and I have writer’s block. This is a little frustrating because I should have lots to write about. Last week saw a surge in volatility with the S&P500 falling by 5% on ...

The case of rising rates from 2018-10-08T01:01

The great detective stands in front of the drawing-room fire, twirling the ends of his moustache as he ponders the Case of the Rising Rates. He knows who committed the crime – but what to do abo...

Balance at takeoff, landing from 2018-10-01T01:01

I have flown enough over the years to have experienced most normal things that happen on planes. From time to time, I’ve been on smaller, regional jets and when, by chance, they are only half fu...

The asset arcade from 2018-09-24T01:01

It is some years now since I have been a regular patron of our local arcade, but I have always been fascinated by the financial transactions by which it is maintained.

The problem with populism from 2018-09-10T01:01

A few years ago, I read a tragic story in a local newspaper about a young man who was walking along the train tracks with his earphones blasting loud music. Far ahead, he could see a train hurtl...

Fixing the roof and making hay from 2018-09-04T01:01

I was in a meeting recently discussing asset allocation when a much-esteemed British colleague suggested that a certain strategy was like "fixing the roof while the sun shines." Growing up in ag...

The investment implications of a return to 2% growth from 2018-08-27T01:01

Like most people, I have my minor obsessions, and one of them is a never-ending quest to run faster. A few weeks ago, I saw a story about some running shoes that would let you run 4% faster (or ...

The flight to Jackson Hole from 2018-08-21T01:01

I get to fly far more than I would like for my job and air travel today in the United States is no picnic. Everyone talks about the hassle of the security lines. But the real problem is the bore...

Getting the test back from 2018-08-13T01:01

When I was in school, one of the most agonizing periods was the time between taking an exam and getting it back. This strange, uncomfortable time would end in one of two ways. If I did well, it ...

Organizing the international desk from 2018-08-06T01:01

I am, I suppose, somewhere in the middle of the pack when it comes desk organization. Somewhere, that is, between a "compulsive." whose desk is clean except for a small symmetrical pile of paper...

The Fed's focus from 2018-07-30T01:01

My father was, for want of a better description, an Irish Victorian Dad. As such, although he cared deeply about all his children, he usually shied away from direct conversation about personal s...

Four to six inches of GDP growth from 2018-07-23T01:01

The key to a successful career in economics, as in weather-forecasting, is never to be too precise. In the middle of winter, you won’t hear a meteorologist forecast five inches of snow for Centr...

The danger in the deficit from 2018-07-16T01:01

"Ahem….I'll just leave the bill here, then. No rush at all – please take your time." The obsequious waiter leaves the check on the table but the Sopranos, loudly enjoying an excellent dinner, ig...

Pizza Shop Pressures - Economic disortions at the edge from 2018-07-09T01:01

We live in an age obsessed with healthy food choices and I am at an age when I should be making them. However, on Saturday, I threw caution to the wind and walked down to our local pizza shop to...

Heating Up, Cooling Down, Preparing for What Comes Next from 2018-07-03T01:01

The week ahead should provide plenty of evidence of a continued heating up of the U.S. economy. The ISM and Markit surveys on Services activity should remain at strong levels while International...

Halftime checklist from 2018-06-25T01:01

With most of the planet glued to the World Cup, I’ve been trying in the last few days to revive an interest in the beautiful game that has lain fallow since my childhood. Like baseball, the more...

My Trade Deficit with Costco from 2018-06-18T01:01

Every year, my wife and I buy increasing amounts of stuff from their shelves but they never seem to want to buy what I have to sell, which is primarily investment ideas and speeches. I should pe...

The hare and the pack from 2018-06-11T01:01

Marathon running is not, generally, much of a spectator sport. Not a lot happens for over two hours until someone finally crosses the finish line in jubilation. However, well before that point, ...

Vodka and Espresso from 2018-06-04T01:01

A number of years ago, I worked for a Swedish asset management firm and this occasionally required me to journey to Stockholm. On these visits, I was generally impressed by the good humor and in...

Roadblocks from 2018-05-28T01:01

It's 4:30 p.m. and my plane has just landed at Logan. In 15 minutes, I'll be in my car but it could be two hours before I'm home. I live 20 miles from the airport but at this time of day there i...

American retailer habits from 2018-05-21T01:01

One of the most annoying habits of American retailers is that they never let you enjoy the season you’re in.As the kids go back to school, they’re selling snow shovels.