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The McAlvany Weekly Commentary

with David McAlvany and Kevin Orrick



If It Walks and Talks Like Recession, Call It “Recovery”

October 30, 2019



"He may be lost in his own matrix of ideas and worldview and textbook knowledge and unable to see the world in any other way except on the basis of the assumptions that he has, but the academic is applying a philosophy of maximal control. The market practitioner, Jim Grant, is applying a philosophy of maximal freedom, and there is the reason I like to spend time with Grant."



- David McAlvany



Kevin: Well, you’re back, and I always enjoy it when you’ve had a trip to New York and you have had time to spend with Jim Grant and whatever the gang is of economists and experts that he gathers every year, or actually, twice a year, isn’t it, for the Grant’s Conference?



David: This was a unique opportunity, because on the one hand I went for the Grant’s Conference. Jim has been writing the interest rate observer for decades, and my dad read him, I read him, and we continue to learn lots from him and from his guests at the conference. But there was another aspect which was interesting this year. Gratitude and thanks to Bob and to Lily and Michelle and Jeffrey and Derek. I was hosted for a day and got to meet with a couple of different groups there in Manhattan and it was absolutely fantastic.



Kevin: You were treated like royalty from what I understand. From morning to night, it sounds like there was something planned and it was always good.



David: Yes. I was asked to do two different seminars and it was just amazing hospitality. I think I discovered a community of friends quite unexpectedly, so thank you so much for that, Bob, Lily, Jeffrey, Michelle and Derek. Thank you so much.



Kevin: I have to look at this from an aspect of what we learn when you get back because oftentimes – I went to a conference a couple of weeks ago that I am still going back and reviewing – when you go to a conference and you have a high-intensity stream of information coming at you from people who really should know what they are talking about, you can’t gather it all at once. You have to sit down and ask, “What was just now said?” And one of the best things that you can do is talk to someone else who was at the conference. And so what I would like to do, Dave, so that we can maximize this – we should just say right now, this is a conference that is several thousand dollars to go to. If a person who is interested in economics has never been to Grant’s, they ought to go. But if you don’t, or even if you did, make sure that you go through and debrief afterward.



David: He has an online option where you don’t have to go to New York, you don’t have to be at the Plaza Hotel, you can access all of the speaking by video, and I’ve thought of doing that, but honestly, things crop up and so it actually is worth my time and the effort to get there, be there, sit there, takes notes, interact directly with the speakers, have lunch and eat with them, talk with them, and hash through particular issues.



Kevin: And these are decision-makers. Oftentimes we are asked, “Why don’t you just stick with whatever your philosophy is?” Why don’t you just talk more about your philosophy? The problem is the people who are making decisions don’t always agree with your philosophy, and for you to be able to make good decisions you have to know what they are thinking, whether it is a Mario Draghi or an Otmar Issing, or in this case, a Dudley who has been president of the New York Fed, you may not agree with everything he says,

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