PGA DFS 2020 Memorial: Studs&Storylines - a podcast by David S McIvor, Kurtis Little

By David S McIvor                @SemiProDFS                                  July 15/2020

 

Déjà vu, Anyone?

 

Yeah, me too. For the 1st time since the 50’s, the PGA is holding back to back tournaments at the same course. That being Muirfield Village, the Nicklaus designed 7,392 yard par 72 beauty. But make no mistake, the differences between last weeks Workday Charity and Thursdays Memorial are sneakily substantial. 

 

Course & Storylines

 

Moved Tee boxes, alternate pin locations, 2-point stimpmeter increase, and grown out rough are some of the noticeable changes. But what sets this tournament far ahead of its counterpart is the absolute “JUICED” field we get to circumvent.

 

              The 5 month absence of Tiger Woods is also ending, splitting DFS players 50-50 on strategy. Last time we seen Tiger return from an extended layoff was the ZOZO Championship… Which he won by 3 strokes against a very similar, upper echelon field almost identical to this week. But the question begs, how long can Tigers body keep up with the likes of McIlroy, Thomas, and DeChambeau?

 

“Not moving very well” and being “Very stiff”

 

seemed to be the culprit as it pertained to his post-cut dead last finish at Riviera a month before shut down. Confident in his 5 month sabbatical though, Tiger claims he’s been back to training and able to spend time with his kids; Which doesn’t particularly give me enough to garner confidence in Tigers ability to beat this group at the Memorial.

 

Maybe at Harding Park, Tiger.

 

              The narrative I have been drawn to is the ever-escalating rivalry between Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau. Back on July 7th, Koepka took to Twitter to make fun of an altercation DeChambeau had with a cameraman. The post depicted a GIF of Danny McBride as Kenny Powers assaulting a Cameraman while confronted about steroid use.

 

https://tenor.com/view/steroid-kenny-powers-eastbound-steroids-gif-6198359

 

Personally, the audacity of Koepka to call out Dechambeau about Steroid use on twitter is a tad trivial and quite possibly unintentional. But let’s say it was intentional. Steroid allegations are not harmful or oppressive. I would go as far as to say they are kind of a compliment… That is of course, assuming you haven’t done them… Bryson…

 

Metrics

Muirfield is slated for some rain from Wednesday to Friday. This should make the course ideal for low scores the first two rounds. Golfers prominent in the Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green category should be looked at, doubled with Around the Green play and proximity from 150-175. This week gives me Open Championship vibes for some reason. Golfers that have also played in last weeks Workday Charity should also receive a bump in projections. No travel and extensive round exposure HAS to be a benefit.

 

 

DFS Breakdown

 

Top Tier

With the metrics used above, it’s almost impossible to ignore Bryson DeChambeau($11.1k-DK, $12k-FD). With Rory, JT and Morikawa being priced lower, I feel like Bryson will succumb to suppressed ownerships in big GPP’s.

 

No one has been hotter off the Tee than Victor Hovland($9.5k-DK, $11.1k-FD). If he can shake the less-than-perfect round 4 performance and positively regress with the Putter; there is no doubt in my mind we will see him in final group on Sunday.

 

The problem with Jon Rahm($9.3k-DK, $11.4k-FD) is his inability to contain his emotions in dire situations. With a Major Tournament type feel without the Stigma, maybe Rahm can turn a corner and feel like he deserves to compete with the elite. I believe to my core that this guy will be the number 1 golfer VERY soon.

 

Probably my favorite play this week is heel Brooks Koepka($9.1k-DK, $10.7k-FD). Birdieing 5 of his last 7 holes before missing the cut on Friday makes me think he found something that may have been missing. Couple that with Major type play, we know how locked in Koepka can get. Paired with McIlroy and Tiger the first 2 days, I see the Brooks of old showing up and flexing on his competition.

 

Value Plays

You may not consider this a value, but I do. Tony Finau($8.3k-DK, $9.7k-FD). The Memorial in recent years is known for a breakout performance. Tony seems to linger and surprise in these stacked fields but has only seemed to capture a measly Puerto Rico Open title. His Tee-To-Green metrics are all positive, and scores better on Bentgrass/Poa. The time is now, Tony.

 

To round out values I’m looking at:

Phil Mickelson($7.3k-DK, $8.6k-FD) to hone in on his immaculate Around the Green play.

Brenden Steele($7.1k-DK, $8.3-FD) hopefully normalize his poor putting play.

And Troy Merrit($6.6k-DK, $8.1k-FD) as he consistently finds ways to make cuts.

 

Sneaky Plays: Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, Matthew Fitzpatrick,

 

This week of Golf should be exciting and informative, as the field preps for what is officially the first major of 2020; The PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park. As always, I hope your lineup builds are bountiful… And lets all pray for:

 

Koepka/DeChambeau Sunday final pairing.

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