#33–Winter Has Arrived–Part 1–the Burst of the Bubble and the Crisis Upon Us - a podcast by Bertrand Schmitt & Nuno G. Pedro

Winter Has Arrived - the Burst of the Bubble and the Crisis Upon Us… AND WE GOT IT RIGHT!

In this episode, we share … that we were right, all along. We were in a bubble and the crisis is upon us. We share context on the current crisis and what is happening, exactly at a macro level - inflation, recession, over-stimuli, etc - as well as in the start-up and VC world.Navigation:

Intro (01:34)Section 1: First of All… We Told You So… Repeatedly (02:05)
Section 2: What is Happening…Exactly (04:25)Conclusion (41:37)

Our co-hosts:Bertrand Schmitt, Entrepreneur in Residence at Red River West, co-founder of App Annie / Data.ai, business angel, advisor to startups and VC funds, @bschmitt
Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, Managing Partner, Founder at Chamaeleon, @ngpedroOur show: Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture newsSubscribe To Our Podcast



Intro (01:34)Nuno
Welcome to Episode 33 of Tech DECIPHERED. This will be the first of two episodes on the bubble bursting. We've called it very nicely. Winter has arrived when we're really in summer. Today's episode, we're going to go through what's happening exactly in this bursting of the bubble. But let's actually start with congratulating ourselves in having predicted the bubble. There was a dramatic bubble and that it was going to burst, which we did in our duology on the bubble a couple of episodes ago Bertrand.

BertrandYes, we released these two episode in October or November, about the bubble and how was supposed to burst at some point. I guess timing was perfect to talk about the bubble when it was at the top of the bubble, right before it start to explode. I think you could fit it in a lot of our discussion in the past two years on our podcasters, that we were on one side amazed to see the increase in transaction values, in VC financing and startup financing, and at the same time, constantly reminding that didn't feel right, and this was probably just a big bubble, and we call it right. It's not just about congratulating ourselves. At the end of the day, it's a pretty scary times for everyone, but obviously, it happened for a reasonw and [inaudible 00:01:19] reasons, and that will help us understand what happened and what's going to happen.

NunoMaybe a parenthesis... I think we got it right in several ways because when COVID first hit, we were predicting that that mini-crash was going to lead to a fundamental crash, and it didn't. Part of what we're now going and suffering through was that, because there wasn't that crash, and the market continued to go bull market for another two years, thank you very much, because of governments giving money, incentives to consumption, a bunch of stuff that was really artificial now we know, we ended up actually having top of the market when we did launch the duology in 2021.

NunoI know it's not a great signal. I certainly, I think, in my own professional activity as an investor, in looking at companies et cetera I've used it. I used it throughout to advise my companies,"Raise now when never knows when it's going to burst","Make sure that you have a plan B". There was a lot of things that instructed me in how I behaved within my professional activity.

NunoI'm sad to say that it didn't inform everything that I do. I probably could have avoided one or two things on that if I'd sort of followed my own advice on it. But in some ways, having been disciplined through the last year and a half, two years, and now we looked at investments. In some ways, I feel a bit vindicated. I don't want to do the"I told you so", but we told them so. Now, we have plenty of proof that we told them so. There's episodes, two episodes that talk about it in October, November, last year.

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