Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky - a podcast by Nathaniel E. Baker

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.

• There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03);
• The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37);
• The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46);
• The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12)
• With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05);
• Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44);
• One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56);
• Background on the guest (22:56);
• Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32);
• The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).

• Website: MillerResource.com;
• LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky;
• Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).

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