.DISTURBANCE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maximum of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding. At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the - a podcast by Todd Nardone

.DISTURBANCE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maximum of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was about 350 miles (560 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm tonight, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba through tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba this afternoon and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

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