tracking ptc one this morning friday, June 3, 2022 - a podcast by Todd Nardone

DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered about 125 miles (200 km) north of Cozumel, Mexico and about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect the northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba later today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. www.nhc.noaa.gov

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