Podcasts by Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds from 2023-12-06T15:12:08

In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.

Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock from 2023-12-01T07:18:32

And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.

Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally from 2023-11-29T08:54:27

Also Noah Smith on productivity

The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again? from 2023-11-25T09:42:33

Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.

The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks. from 2023-11-19T18:17:04

US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.

US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates. from 2023-11-13T09:24:34

We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.

Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny! from 2023-11-06T14:11:24

Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.

Trump Trades 2024 from 2023-11-03T10:27:51

What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?

UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview from 2023-10-26T11:13:08

Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.

The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity. from 2023-10-22T20:04:56

Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.

UJWOB Credit Special: Part 1 from 2023-10-16T09:21:03

A deep(ish) dive into the corporate bond market.

US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally from 2023-10-13T07:53:43

And Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.

US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy. from 2023-10-09T07:34:05

And a belated look at Arslanalp & Eichengreen’s paper on government debt levels. TL;DR - tough to get them down from here given the growth outlook.

101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off from 2023-10-06T08:58:03

And why Rishi Sunak faces a tricky election timing call given inflation base effects.

A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves from 2023-10-02T07:35:44

And Judy Stephenson’s letter to the FT about making sure you use the right inflation numbers when looking at historical building costs.

Are the Monetarists Back? from 2023-09-29T13:47:26

If they are, it could mean lower rates, not higher rates…

What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid. from 2023-09-25T16:05:34

Bonds can’t catch a break though. Highest UST yields since 2007.

A Wall of Worry For Bonds from 2023-09-22T12:12:11

Also: NFTs, AI, Auto Workers’ Strike.

Table Mountain: Fed Holds But Will ‘Proceed Carefully’. UK Inflation Lets BoE Off The Hook. from 2023-09-20T19:22:55

A Dynamically Priced Episode of IJWOB. Send me a fiver.

Peak Central Bank Rates = Peak Bond Yields? from 2023-09-18T07:58:36

Lots of central bank activity this week, albeit with a lurking threat from higher oil and rents.

Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds from 2023-09-11T08:06:36

Is Season 11 ‘The One Where The Fed Stops Hiking’? Find out soon.

UJWOB Summer Special 2023 ☀️ from 2023-08-25T11:06:06

All your summer bond market fun in one place.

The End of Season 10 of UJWOB from 2023-07-28T14:06:43

Three central banks, three policy actions. Oooh, and SUPERCONDUCTOR HOPE!

Geek Week For Central Bank Watchers from 2023-07-24T17:14:23

Fed, ECB and BOJ. Central bankers are spoiling us.

Finally the Bank of England Catches a Break. Better UK Inflation Numbers. from 2023-07-19T07:28:05

And Chinese property bonds fall.

The Turning Point in the Battle Against Inflation? June’s CPI Cheers Bonds. from 2023-07-17T07:59:33

But bad news from the Chinese economy as GDP disappoints.

Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report: Not As Bad As 2007? from 2023-07-12T08:35:47

The UK banking system is in a solid place. But look out for risks in pension funds, insurers and hedge funds around US Treasury bond exposures.

New Weakness In Bond Markets. Monetary Policy Doesn’t Seem To Be Working. from 2023-07-07T08:08:52

Rocketing ADP employment data sends markets lower.

Don’t Fight The Fed. And UK Water Bonds In The Spotlight. from 2023-06-30T07:45:03

Thames Water is making the headlines as its CEO quits. Water bond prices fall.

The Russian Coup, Credit, and Harry Markowitz. from 2023-06-26T07:52:42

The ruble weakens - but what actually happened this weekend? No answers here I’m afraid.

UK Inflation - Another Shocker. And China’s 2023 Growth Outlook Downgraded. from 2023-06-21T07:20:24

Core CPI in the UK is still rising.

Fed ‘skips’. Or is it a ‘pause’? from 2023-06-14T21:15:29

Fed linguistic experts, assemble!

Gilt Yields Spike To Above Trussonomics Levels from 2023-06-13T09:42:25

Strong labour market data lead to rising Bank of England expectations.

Surprise Rate Hikes From Australia 🇦🇺 and Canada 🇨🇦 from 2023-06-09T08:01:59

And the first signs of weakness in the US jobs market?

Napoleon & the 1814 Gilt Market Scam from 2023-06-03T08:12:51

And May’s NFP numbers of course.

The 2023 Deutsche Bank Default Study from 2023-05-31T16:18:19

And lots of disinflationary signs from the global markets and stats…

Is the ‘Moron Risk Premium’ Back For The UK? 🇬🇧 from 2023-05-29T16:33:46

A horrible week for UK gilts after another poor inflation print.

Big Week For The US Debt Ceiling Crisis, and a Big Week For The Bank Of England Too. from 2023-05-22T07:38:14

Will UK inflation finally head below 10%? Also today we look at US M2 money supply and the expected T-Bill tsunami.

The Economist ‘Front Cover Curse’ Revisited from 2023-05-15T10:12:49

This week it’s China. Also some EM updates.

The 14th Amendment: A Constitutional Crisis in the Making? from 2023-05-08T10:56:39

Countdown to the 1st June Debt Ceiling deadline continues…

Hiking In A Banking Crisis - Not Sure How Kind History Will Be On the Fed & ECB from 2023-05-05T07:21:13

And look at Sterling go! £££££!

First Republic Bank Is Gone: The US’s Second Biggest Bank Failure in History from 2023-05-02T07:40:07

Also: the Debt Ceiling and US sovereign CDS.

Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 Special Episode from 2023-04-28T05:31:33

In which we do NOT get an end to Yield Curve Control. Recorded LIVE from Tokyo.

Season 10 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds from 2023-04-24T09:14:44

Summer term starts here. Monetary policy lags, greedflation, and the return of cash.

The End of Season 9 of UJWOB: And Time for Pause in Rate Hikes? from 2023-04-03T08:22:38

A round-up of Q1’s fixed income action.

Midjourney, Twitter Bank Runs, and Minsky Moments from 2023-03-27T10:52:12

The Pope in a puffer jacket.

Bank of England Hikes: Bailey Tells Firms To Not Raise Prices from 2023-03-24T08:46:05

And deposit guarantees are in the news - never a good thing.

Credit Suisse Rescued: But AT1 Bank Bonds Wiped Out from 2023-03-21T08:12:24

The Swiss regulator sends bank capital markets tumbling, but calm is restored later by EU and UK regulators.

Credit Suisse: Everything, Everywhere All At Once Is the Headline Being Used By Everyone, Everywhere from 2023-03-15T18:26:52

Crazy bond markets today. 😬

Silicon Valley Bank On The Brink: Idiosyncratic or Systematic? from 2023-03-10T15:51:46

No-one cared about strong NFP jobs numbers today.

1981 Revisited: the US Yield Curve from 2023-03-08T08:29:54

And Australia 🇦🇺 hikes for the 10th meeting in a row.

Non Farm Payrolls Week: Markets at the Whim of the Seasonal Adjustment Fairy. from 2023-03-06T09:39:55

Also today: Argentina, and Andrew Hauser of the BoE.

The ECB’s Secret PowerPoint Slides from 2023-03-03T09:05:50

Reuters has reported that at an ECB Council away day ‘more then two dozen’ slides showed that inflation is currently driven by profiteering, not wage growth.

The One Where Jim Gets His Kids’ Mobile Phone Bill from 2023-03-01T08:51:18

And China 🇨🇳 manufacturing comes back strongly.

Debt Sustainability Special Episode from 2023-02-24T09:41:33

In which I drag out the old Hemingway quote again, and delve into a new JPM paper on the subject.

Good News is Bad News in Global Markets Again from 2023-02-22T08:17:06

But at last something to cheer about for the UK economy

Fed Hike Expectations Jump Higher from 2023-02-20T08:55:20

Back from a disastrous snowboarding trip. 😬🏂

The Wetherspoon’s Inflation Indicator, In Which Our Intrepid Podcaster Buys A Round from 2023-02-09T21:55:24

£27. TWENTY SEVEN QUID.

Jay Powell: “The Labor Market is Extraordinary”. from 2023-02-08T13:07:03

517k new US jobs created last month. And LDI follow up.

Bonds ❤️ Central Banks from 2023-02-03T09:07:53

Hikes from the Fed, ECB and BoE. Bond markets see record rallies. Risk loves it too. The end (of high interest rates) is nigh?

Bregret? Three Years After Brexit, How Did It Go? from 2023-01-31T08:41:11

Bloomberg Economics analysis, and IMF forecasts.

Instantaneous Inflation - Back to Target but Next Week the Fed, BoE and ECB Will All Hike from 2023-01-27T17:21:38

Jan Eeckhout paper from UPF Barcelona is worth a read.

Brazil 🇧🇷 and Argentina 🇦🇷 Talking About A Single Currency Zone from 2023-01-23T11:27:30

And more on Japan, and ChatGPT.

🇯🇵 A Japan Special - YCC and Kuroda 🇯🇵 from 2023-01-20T12:20:37

No change in YCC. Short sellers RIP 🪦

Debt Ceiling Self-Sabotage from 2023-01-20T12:07:43

And some ‘best ever’ stats for you.

The Risk Rally Continues - Credit Loves the Good News Narrative from 2023-01-16T08:46:35

And the 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan could be on the verge of something big.

Bluebirds>Black Swans. Hope for 2023? from 2023-01-12T08:50:15

What is the bond market narrative for the new year?

Season 9 of UJWOB: the end of the Negative Yielding Bond Era from 2023-01-06T09:44:59

🚨🚨🚨The last negative yielding bond turned positive yesterday!🚨🚨🚨

Uncle Jim’s 2023 Bond Market Outlook from 2022-12-09T15:46:57

Better late than never. 😘

The End of Season 8 of UJWOB: The Powell Pivot? from 2022-12-05T08:36:36

But US wage growth shocked bond markets on Friday.

Alan Blinder: A Monetary & Fiscal History of the United States 1961-2021 from 2022-12-02T15:48:12

An interview with the former Fed Vice Chair about his fascinating new book. Keynes, Kennedy, Friedman, Reagan, Bernanke, and Clinton v the Bond Vigilantes. It’s all here. The book is out now.

China 🇨🇳 Protests from 2022-11-28T09:56:12

And government bond yields continue to fall. Also Ackman and the HKD.

The Fixed Income Everything Rally. from 2022-11-25T08:48:18

And monetary policy nerds assemble at the Bank of England.

Paul the Octopus v Goldman Sachs from 2022-11-21T09:15:16

But mainly about credit and some bearish default forecasts from Deutsche Bank.

The Inflation Turning Point? from 2022-11-14T18:24:10

And Twitter, Crypto, Saunders.

Midterms, Menu Costs, Crypto from 2022-11-10T09:59:31

Best news for the GOP? Trump influence wanes. Worst news? He might take his revenge.

More US Yield Curve Inversion - and 🇺🇸 Jobs Growth Remains Solid from 2022-11-04T14:17:11

3 month/10 year curve is now negative

Halloween 🎃 and Gilts Are No Longer So Scary. from 2022-10-31T08:23:08

But mortgage rates aren’t really falling back in the UK.

What Does Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner, Call the UK’s Bond Spread? from 2022-10-21T16:50:35

As officially named by Dario Perkins.

Four UK Chancellors In A Year. And US Core Inflation at 6.6% from 2022-10-14T15:29:49

Trussonomics cancelled?

No Rest for Gilts: Another Big Selloff Despite New Help From Bank of England. from 2022-10-10T14:32:04

And Ben Bernanke wins the Nobel Prize.

Lenin, Hemingway and Fitzgerald. from 2022-10-03T09:04:59

Back to pre mini Budget levels in £ and long gilts. But the damage is done.

Margin Call: Extraordinary Dysfunction in the Gilt Market from 2022-09-28T07:21:06

Real yields have moved from -2.25% to +2%!

Record Low for the £, and Gilts Collapse Again. from 2022-09-26T08:38:47

Not going well for Trussonomics so far.

Season 8: OMG THE GILT MARKET from 2022-09-23T13:35:17

Gilts are selling off. So is the £.

Politics Special Edition with Randeep Somel! from 2022-09-01T09:40:39

Everything you need to know about global politics in 25 minutes.

Uncle Jim’s 2022 Summer Special ☀️ from 2022-08-10T10:21:06

Put down your John Grisham, pour yourself a pina colada and take a listen to this by the paddling pool.

The End of Uncle Jim’s Season 7: ECB hikes 50bps, and Trussanomics. from 2022-07-22T07:05:05

Have lovely summer holidays. Stay frosty, and see you back here for Season 8.

Nationalisations, Rationing and a Cost of Living Crisis. Credit Spreads to Jump? from 2022-07-19T07:45:17

A JPM research note gives an incredibly bearish outlook, especially for Europe.

US Consumers Feel Bad. But the Fed will hike to 3.5% by Christmas. from 2022-07-15T17:20:45

And cut thereafter…

US Treasury Yield Curve Now Properly Inverted from 2022-07-12T07:22:40

But because a US recession is ‘declared’ rather than measured, a soft-ish landing might break the bond market’s most beloved model. Also - the Laffer Curve doesn’t work.

Euro Nears Parity With the $. US Yield Curve Inverted As We Expect Weakening Labo(u)r Market. from 2022-07-08T08:23:55

And a relief rally in the £ as disgraced PM Johnson is forced out.

Europe’s Natural Gas Problem: interview with Orlando Finzi from 2022-07-06T10:00:34

Utilities analyst Orlando Finzi gives an update on the massive rise in gas prices, and the implications for inflation and growth.

🚨Narrative Change Alert🚨 From Inflation to Recession… from 2022-07-04T08:32:27

And a 21% total return in one day from UK linkers.

The Worst Start to a Year for USTs Since Before George Washington! from 2022-07-01T07:33:54

Also, property REITs underperforming a weak credit market.

China 🇨🇳 Reopening? But US 🇺🇸 Consumer is In Trouble… from 2022-06-29T07:26:14

Also, Scotland’s 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence debate is back.

Yields Drop Despite Hawkish Fed Rhetoric: Hike Expectations Peaking? from 2022-06-24T08:37:31

And credit is still very weak.

The Deutsche Bank Default Study: Ouch from 2022-06-17T08:40:45

Jim Reid’s brilliant annual publication is out. Here’s the highlights.

Bondmageddon Continues. from 2022-06-15T07:33:17

5 days in a row of rising UST yields and credit is widening daily too.

New 40 Year 🇺🇸 CPI High - and Record Low in Consumer Sentiment… from 2022-06-13T06:52:25

And did Google’s AI just become sentient?! 🤖

Workers’ Power Returning? The Fed Thinks That Trade Unions Hold The Key To Inflation. from 2022-06-10T07:16:36

Also Lagarde and the ECB - rate hikes in July and September. Positive Rates Coming Back.

Jubilee Special. Credit is rallying off its May lows. from 2022-05-30T08:44:32

Nottingham Forest 🌳: back where we belong.

What does $ Strength Mean for Emerging Markets from 2022-05-27T08:05:47

And Forest head to Wembley! 🌳

Recession fears grow. Stocks down, bond yields down. Bank of England under attack. from 2022-05-20T16:22:02

And Tesla gets expelled from the S&P’s ESG index. Elon Musk isn’t impressed.

Apocalypse Now. Andrew Bailey at the Treasury Select Committee from 2022-05-17T08:31:36

Food price inflation a big worry for the Bank of England.

Crytpo-crash, Michael Owen, and breaking pegs. from 2022-05-12T07:52:58

Tether broke the buck today. Government bonds are rallying despite strong CPI.

Credit - No Hiding Place in Investment Grade Bonds. IG and HY both -9% this Year. from 2022-05-09T07:16:42

And the $ rampage continues.

Bank of England’s Recession Forecast - and a bleak day for markets from 2022-05-06T07:02:54

Treasuries, equities, the £ - all sell off. Only gilts buck the global trend.

Roundnumberitis: 3% US Treasury Bond Yields from 2022-05-03T07:46:03

And 1% 10 year bunds too.

Season 7 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds from 2022-04-25T08:28:58

Real yields higher, credit weaker.

The End of Crazy Quarter in Bond World (and the end of Season 6) from 2022-03-31T08:48:04

We end Q1 with inflation at career highs for many (most?) bond managers. Also goodbye to a couple of my bond salespeople - including one whose surname I get, Freudianly, wrong. 🤦

Negative Bond Yields - RIP? ☠️ from 2022-03-28T10:43:09

There’s not much left in the world of negative bond yields after Powell’s comments last week…

Happy 2nd Birthday to UJWOB from 2022-03-24T10:07:20

Sunak isn’t going to like today’s headlines. All about the cost of living crisis and collapsing real incomes.

J-Pow to Bond Market: Drop Dead from 2022-03-22T07:53:17

A kick in the teeth for Treasuries as Powell talks of even more rate hikes from the Fed.

Bank of England’s Dovish Hike. Fed hikes for the first time since 2018. from 2022-03-18T08:41:33

And Russia appears to have paid a $ bond coupon. No default yet.

Fed Hike Day (probably) from 2022-03-16T09:00:18

And also Russia Default Day (probably).

Risk Assets Bounce and the € Recovers Too from 2022-03-10T08:13:49

The market prices in one ECB rate hike for 2022 once more.

Oil Hits $130. Recession Coming? from 2022-03-07T08:30

And the debate around weapons and ESG investment.

Biggest Rally in Gilts & Bunds for a Decade. And US$ Funding Costs Are Rising. from 2022-03-02T08:58:43

And a regular reminder to follow @adam_tooze in Twitter.

Latest on Russia and Sanctions. And Germany’s New Military Spending Policy from 2022-02-28T13:08:54

Russian reserves and the latest sanctions news.

Russia 🇷🇺 invades Ukraine 🇺🇦 from 2022-02-24T08:37:04

Russian bonds fall 10-25 points this morning.

What Bonds Did On My Winter Holidays ❄️ from 2022-02-21T08:17:05

A flight to quality week, as Russian invasion fears mounted.

7.5% US CPI. Another upside surprise. Also Italy. from 2022-02-10T14:03:25

10 year Treasuries approaching 2%…

Bond Tantrum 😱 from 2022-02-07T08:59:32

The ECB, the Bank of England, and then the US jobs data - one shock after another. Bonds sold off bigly.

🇪🇺ECB Hiking Cycle🇪🇺. And the Bank of England announces it’s selling ALL its £ corporate bonds. from 2022-02-04T09:00:33

Market is now expecting 2 rate hikes from the ECB this year! HUGE moves in bonds and currencies.

5 Fed Hikes Priced for 2022 from 2022-02-01T08:33:07

And a look at bond market performance so far this year.

Morrissey/Terry Pratchet/J-Pow from 2022-01-27T09:06:03

Hawkish Powell at the Fed last night.

Default Expectations Rising in Russia and Ukraine, and “Safe Havens” Rally from 2022-01-24T09:33:15

Bund yields are down 10 bps on last week.

🇩🇪 German Bund Yields Turn +ve 🇩🇪 from 2022-01-19T08:38:46

You get paid for lending to Germany again.

🚨7%🚨 from 2022-01-17T08:10

US inflation hit 7% last month, the highest since 1982. Bond markets have sold off again, and credit is having its worse ever start to a year.

Season 6: Welcome to 2022 - and a huge bond sell-off from 2022-01-11T09:39:08

Real yields are rising, and the market is now expecting 4 Fed hikes this year.

Uncle Jim’s 2022 Bond Market Outlook from 2021-12-16T13:43:04

The Fed, inflation, policy errors, recession, credit, emerging markets, Bitcoin.

Francis Fukuyama and The End of History from 2021-12-07T11:14:12

A look back at this really important and interesting book from 25 years ago.

Last US Employment Report of 2021: Something For Everyone? from 2021-12-03T16:19:01

And what are inverting yield curves telling us?

Bad News on Vaccines: Risk Off Again. And BRICS. from 2021-11-30T09:01:49

The Moderna CEO was pretty negative on the Omicron outlook today. Also, BRICS revisited.

Covid: Treasuries Rally & Credit Weak on New Variant. from 2021-11-26T08:22:56

Emerging markets also lower on South African variant news.

Powell vs Brainard: Winner Announced Today? from 2021-11-22T08:13:45

Biden will appoint the next Fed Chair before he goes on holiday tomorrow.

U.K. Furlough Ends, But Employment Grows from 2021-11-16T08:41:55

Great news from the U.K. labour market. But it puts a Bank of England Rate hike back in play.

US Inflation: Highest for 30 Years from 2021-11-11T07:52:43

6.2% rise in consumer prices surprised economists. And pretty much every component of inflation is running hot.

China’s 🇨🇳 High Yield Market Turmoil Accelerates. And Real Bond Yields Hit Record Lows. from 2021-11-09T09:45:03

A Chinese property developer is downgraded to Junk, and the whole HY market falls, again. The HY index is down 30% since the summer.

COP26 - A Conversation With Climate Solutions Investor Randeep Somel. from 2021-11-05T08:59:47

Carbon taxes, politics, greenflation and more.

Scenes on Threadneedle Street. from 2021-11-04T22:16:30

No Bank of England rate hike. Big gilt rally even as the Fed announces the QE taper.

Australia & Italy - Central Banks Waving Goodbye? from 2021-11-03T08:01:38

Yield Curve Control ended by the RBA in Australia 🇦🇺, ECB ending the PEPP next year.

Back to Normal for the U.K. 🇬🇧? from 2021-11-01T08:04:38

Will the Bank of England hike this week? And if so why did gilts rally so much last week?

US 🇺🇸 Entering Recession Now? from 2021-10-22T07:10:34

Bryson & Blanchflower think so in a new economic paper. Gulp.

🚨 Policy Error Alert 🚨 from 2021-10-19T06:38:42

Are central banks about to make a terrible mistake by hiking rates too soon, or does the inflation outlook justify higher interest rates?

1980s: The Latin American Debt Crisis from 2021-10-18T06:43:12

A look a Federal Reserve blog on that crisis. Also, the US yield curve starts to flatten…recession ahead?

Nobel Prizes And Other Academic Stuff from 2021-10-12T07:25:22

Includes the new ECB paper on consumption post Covid.

Jobs Weak, Bonds Weak from 2021-10-11T07:02:17

Non Farm Payrolls disappointed again, but bond yields had another poor week.

Is the USA’s Sovereign Credit Rating Useful? from 2021-10-07T07:08:34

Gas, debt ceilings and the 2011 S&P US sovereign rating downgrade.

Credit: Default Rates Still Falling, But Spreads Starting To Move Higher? from 2021-10-05T08:05:39

Corporate bonds have outperformed government bonds in 2021. How much further can that go?

Biden’s in Trouble: The GOP Smells Blood from 2021-10-01T08:19:09

The US has managed to delay running out of $ from October to December. But the chances of Biden’s big stimulus bills getting passed unscathed look bleak now.

Stagflation from 2021-09-29T07:03:07

Feels a bit like the 1970s, doesn’t it?

US 🇺🇸 Default on 20th October? from 2021-09-27T07:28:24

Forget Evergrande - might America default next month?

Bond Market Sell-off: Bank of England Triggers 10 bps+ Yield Spike from 2021-09-24T08:20:33

Government bond yields rise. And still no sign of the Evergrande coupon payment on the $ bonds…

Is Evergrande Contagious? from 2021-09-21T07:59:30

More on the expected Chinese property default. Also, today sees the U.K. launch a green gilt.

Evergrande - China’s Lehman Brothers? from 2021-09-17T07:35:23

Chinese property company Evergrande is in trouble. It’s bonds have fallen to 25 cents in the dollar. Is this the “big one” for Chinese real estate?

ECB Taper: a Head-Scratcher from 2021-09-14T07:20:37

Whoops, they did it again.

Income Inequality Driving Bond Yields Lower? from 2021-09-08T10:28:23

Have a read of the Mian, Straub & Sufi paper (or the FT’s Robert Armstrong’s summary of it).

Season 5, Episode 1: Three Things Driving the World of Bonds from 2021-09-06T09:23:49

The Delta slowdown, the end of the US global policeman role, and China’s pushback on capitalism.

Duncan Weldon’s “Muddling Through - the surprising story of Britain’s economy” from 2021-08-23T15:05:23

Duncan’s new book is a “must read” look at how the British economy became the world’s leader - and what went wrong thereafter…

Moyeen Islam: the Bank of England & Quantitative Tightening from 2021-08-18T16:09

An interview with the famous Barclays government bond strategist, Moyeen Islam. The BoE has announced its QE exit policy - have they got it right?

Uncle Jim’s 2021 Summer Special from 2021-08-09T18:06:31

What does the rest of the year hold for bond investors?

US 🇺🇸 GDP Misses - but don’t worry, it’s bullish! from 2021-07-29T13:14:12

Inventory drawdown results in a growth miss for the States. Also today, the Fed starts thinking about tapering.

Record low US Real Yields amid a China Crisis 🇨🇳 from 2021-07-27T08:56:57

The Chinese and HK stock markets are tumbling on regulatory fears. Add that to the existing Delta Variant worries and US TIPS real yields are at record lows of -1.1%.

Morgan Stanley Paper: Debt Sustainability is Key from 2021-07-16T08:03

R-G is the most important thing, not an arbitrary debt/GDP level.

US 🇺🇸 Inflation Higher Again - But Bond Markets Barely Move As Global Growth Fears Rise. from 2021-07-13T12:56:58

5.4%! And core inflation up 0.9% over June alone. Can we still use the “transitory” narrative?

The ECB Raises the Inflation Target from 2021-07-09T08:37:29

But this is no Fed-style FAIT.

Bonds Rally Again! More Buyers Than Sellers. from 2021-07-07T08:21:43

And Koko-Chan, the Japanese bond market mascot.

Green Gilts from 2021-07-05T07:58:17

The U.K. government is going to issue “green” bonds in September. What will they look like? How much will they cost?

“Where Credit Is Due” by Gregory Smith. Africa’s Sovereign Debt and its Future. from 2021-06-29T10:31:45

An interview with Greg Smith, expert in African bond markets and economics, about his great new book.

Inflation Bottlenecks Ending? from 2021-06-28T07:43:55

Also, the Bank of England is less hawkish than feared. And High Yield isn’t very high yield.

The De-Re-Inflation Trade. from 2021-06-22T07:38:06

Also - digital currencies and freedom.

Fed Turns Hawkish. And is Australia 🇦🇺 Really A Huge Default Risk? from 2021-06-17T07:28:06

Talking about yesterday’s change to the Fed Dot Plots, plus a FTSE Russell sovereign default model based on climate change.

U.K. 🇬🇧 Inflation Joins the Party 🎉 from 2021-06-16T07:12:51

Please forgive the emojis, I couldn’t help myself. 🤗

10 Reasons Why Treasury Bonds Are Rallying from 2021-06-12T15:24:13

What it says in the title.

5% US Inflation - Highest for 13 Years. from 2021-06-10T13:29:28

It was expected to be strong. It was, and then some. 💪

Some Personal Gilt Market Historical Recollections from 2021-06-07T06:26:14

One of the biggest bond issues in history matures today. 8% 2021.

Taper! The Fed Announces It’s Selling Its Corporate Bonds. from 2021-06-03T07:01:09

Is this the beginning of the end for QE and emergency bond purchases?

Ryan A. Bourne - “Economics In One Virus” 🦠 from 2021-05-28T17:39:58

The Cato Institute’s Ryan Bourne discusses his new book on the economics of the pandemic: the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), public v private actions, global trade and vaccine nationalism, and ...

Demographics: is the future inflationary or deflationary? from 2021-05-26T07:31:30

As Europe ages in the same way as Japan has, should we expect higher or lower inflation? Also today, I try to pronounce Tokamak.

The Eurovision Bond Contest 🇮🇪🇮🇹🇮🇸🇸🇪🇩🇪 from 2021-05-24T07:07:22

Is the Eurozone reopening going better than expected? And why are European government bond yields rising?

Diamond Hands & Laser Beam Eyes from 2021-05-21T07:21:41

Bonds are dull and stable this week so far - all the action is in crypto currency.

China Still Loves US Treasury Bonds from 2021-05-19T07:44:30

Foreigners bought $200 billion of USTs in Q1. Also, U.K. inflation, and weak Eurozone bond markets.

Blowout US Inflation: +4.2%, Highest since 2008 from 2021-05-12T14:54:57

And core inflation was the strongest since 1981!

Poor Employment Numbers - the GOP Blames Feckless Biden Stimulus from 2021-05-10T07:32:03

Only 266k jobs created in the US in April, nowhere near the 1 million expected. In today’s podcast we ask why. Also, Scottish independence, and the Bomber Mafia.

Season 4 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds from 2021-05-07T08:00:56

It’s back. Loads going on - it’s going to be a fascinating summer for markets.

Spring Bond Market Roundup: the end of Season 3. from 2021-04-06T08:10:41

A longer episode covering the market’s Fed hike expectations, and credit market performance.

The Bank of England and a Coup d’Etat from 2021-03-29T09:12:08

It happened in the 1960s, so sorry if I alarmed you.

Are Inflation Linked Bonds Rubbish? from 2021-03-25T09:08:58

As predictors of future inflation they turn out to be pretty mediocre.

How Much Does QE Cost? from 2021-03-23T07:58:14

Can we afford it once rates rise? Also we welcome Turkey’s 4th central bank Governor since 2019.

1978: the Fed’s “Inflation Fighter” from 2021-03-19T10:49:42

A bond market history lesson. Chairman G. William Miller takes over at the Federal Reserve.

No Fed Hike till 2024 from 2021-03-18T08:40:56

Well that’s what they are saying.

U.K. Trade Collapses. Et France A Besoin de Babies. from 2021-03-12T09:20:42

Come for the U.K. export data, stay for my French accent.

Growth vs Bonds: pick your winner from 2021-03-09T09:05:04

Government bond yields are assumed to have a close relationship with nominal GDP growth. How’s that going?

J-Pow Fails To End Bond Rout from 2021-03-05T07:06:58

He spoke, US Treasuries hated it. Yields up again.

Budget Day. And the Fed hints that it’s worried about the bond tantrum. from 2021-03-03T07:38:11

How sensitive is the UK’s government debt to rising rates? Also the Fed’s Brainard speaks about last week’s bond market turbulence.

Bond Market Sell-Off, or a Blip? from 2021-03-01T07:40:02

Also a look back at the 1994 bond rout.

Episode 100 - Did the “Bond Bubble” Just Burst? from 2021-02-26T07:58:08

Carnage in US Treasury bonds...

Bond Carnage Accelerates from 2021-02-22T11:29:53

Australian government bond yields up 17 bps overnight. But risk assets are not moving...yet. Also: Sir Kier Starmer, the £, and Uber.

Bond Market Sell-off Escalates from 2021-02-17T08:00:31

Yields are up everywhere. This hasn’t hit risky assets yet - but it might just be a matter of time. Also: the thorny case of Finders vs Keepers.

Worst U.K. GDP Since 1709 from 2021-02-12T08:50:28

The U.K. ended 2020 at the bottom of the developed market league tables for growth. But are we comparing like for like?

2% US Treasury Yields!!! Briefly. from 2021-02-09T09:18:03

Also today, Bitcoins, and the bull-case for the US dollar.

Bank of England Special from 2021-02-05T08:36:08

Gilts sold off biggly yesterday as we got hawkish commentary out of the Bank of England. Negative rates off the table?

Enter the Draghi from 2021-02-04T08:30:14

He’s back - probably. Italian BTP yields fell 10 bps yesterday as a result. Also back? The KLF. And inflation?

Hi Ho Silver! The Wizard of Oz Revisited. from 2021-02-01T09:24:10

Also today, the House of Lords QE Inquiry, & the US minimum wage hike.

Bed of Nitroglycerin? from 2021-01-26T08:39:25

10 years ago Bill Gross said the U.K. was in severe danger on account of its budget deficits. It didn’t work out like that. Also today I look at my favourite gilt, UKT 8% 2021.

Bonds: Pinned Between Dovish Central Banks and Expansionary Governments from 2021-01-25T08:48:15

This week we find out more about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook given recent softer jobs data, and the likely timing and size of Biden’s stimulus package. Which will bond markets care about most?

Yellen: The Musical. And inflation. from 2021-01-22T10:04:08

5 reasons why inflation comes back in 2021 from Morgan Stanley. Plus a musical tribute to the new Treasury Secretary.

What The Hobbit Teaches Us About Monetary Policy from 2021-01-18T09:18:35

When Smaug captured the dwarves treasure, he plunged the economy of Middle Earth into depression and deflation. Perhaps leading the rise of the far right (Sauron).

Bring on the Stimmy: Biden & Powell want growth. Also what on earth happened with Europcar’s CDS? from 2021-01-15T09:09:20

Stimulus, fallen angels, sovereign defaults, and a CDS disaster that will go down in bond market history.

2021 Starts With a US Treasury Bond Selloff from 2021-01-11T08:54:12

Yields are rising, curves are steepening. A big Biden stimulus is expected. Will we get higher Fed rates and inflation though?

Uncle Jim’s 2021 Bond Market Outlook from 2020-12-15T11:44:15

A bumper edition looking at the key issues for bond markets in 2021, and beyond.

Emerging Market Defaults: More On the Way? Not Necessarily. from 2020-12-08T08:43:07

Today I look at EMD’s default experience so far this year, and then at the forward projections for default risk. Also I preview Thursday’s ECB meeting. And Weird Left Finance Twitter gets a shout out.

Sherman McCoy, The Bonfire of the Vanities, Gold & Giscard Bonds from 2020-12-04T08:27:12

Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President, died this week. He was a key player in France’s economic relationship with the US. He also invented the Giscard Bond - linked to gold.

A Bad Day For US Treasuries from 2020-12-02T07:51:39

But a good day for the US economy as the Democrats and Republicans showed that they might be able to work together around fiscal stimulus. USTs sold off heavily. Also today I discuss a new Fed pape...

The Maradona Theory of Monetary Policy, and the Man With Maradona’s Shirt from 2020-11-30T07:53:19

RIP the GOAT. Also today, RPI reform, Tesla, Copper, and Debt Cancellation.

Yellen, Brainard & Shelton from 2020-11-25T08:26:34

Lots of new appointments in the world of US economics to talk about today. Also, RPI reform in the U.K., and pressure on the New Zealand central bank.

African Sovereign Debt: a Deep Dive with Gregory Smith from 2020-11-23T17:03:12

With Zambia having defaulted on international bonds last week, it’s a good time to interview Greg Smith, emerging market debt analyst, and former World Bank African economist. How was the Covid sho...

Economic Long Covid from 2020-11-17T08:43:16

I’m guessing we all agree that the recent vaccine news makes a strong economic recovery likely in 2021. But how much long lasting damage - or scarring - has already occurred?

Lena Dunham’s “Industry” and that 4% US Treasury Trade... from 2020-11-13T07:37:56

In today’s podcast we have a new series from the “Girls” star, we have Fed speak, bitcoins, WFH and a HUGE bond auction.

Puppies and Inflation from 2020-11-11T11:01:19

Ok the podcast is mainly about central bank rate expectations, but I also suggest that puppy inflation is not being captured in the U.K. RPI stats.

Bicycle Economics from 2020-11-09T08:32:38

3 things about the market for pushbikes that tell us about the global economy.

Bonds stabilise after their US Election rally - but the US$ is falling from 2020-11-06T08:33:04

Corporate America got the result it wanted - no prospect of regulatory pressure given the Dems didn’t win the Senate. Risk assets rally, but the US dollar is weakening. More Fed cuts to come?

US Presidential Election Too Close To Call: but No Blue Wave from 2020-11-04T07:55:27

A quick morning update on last night’s US elections. US Treasuries rallying hard as fiscal expansion expectations are scaled back.

Europe’s “Hamilton Moment”, and Piketty’s new film. from 2020-10-22T07:49:13

The EU has issued its own bonds. And the film of Capital in the 21st Century.

Double Standards at the IMF? from 2020-10-19T07:39:14

Today I look at sovereign CDS markets given the UK’s downgrade last week, and ask whether the IMF really has changed its tune over austerity.

Might the U.K. be downgraded tonight? And memories of 1990s gilt auctions. from 2020-10-16T07:54:16

Today I look at the newly minted Nobel Economics prize winners, and their work on auction theory. Also Moody’s and the U.K. credit rating, and EMD fund flows.

Used Car Prices Up, but US inflation Weakens from 2020-10-14T05:46:38

Today I look at a weak US CPI print, and an Economist article called “Eternal Zero” about low bond yields.

Fiscal Multipliers are POWERFUL at times like these from 2020-10-12T07:28:04

Today I look at some new IMF research, as well as at a Chinese policy change, and an interview with the ECB’s Lane.

Awful U.K. GDP, Technical Analysis for Beginners, & China. from 2020-10-09T07:30:56

Chances of negative rates have increased in the U.K. after a disappointing growth number for August. It should have been strong given Eat Out To Help Out.

Defaults - What’s Priced In Now? from 2020-10-07T07:23:51

Corporate bonds have rallied massively from the distressed levels we saw in Q2 this year. What are current spread levels telling us about expected defaults?

Can Robots Predict Financial Crises? from 2020-10-05T07:27:10

New Bank of England research says “yes”.

Lagarde, Reversal Rate Dynamics and Weak Eurozone Inflation Expectations from 2020-10-01T06:43:22

Inflation numbers are coming in for September and they are terribly weak in Europe. The ECB is worried. Might they, like the Fed, change their inflation target?

It’s the Economy, Stupid. from 2020-09-30T06:58:31

Who’s really best for the economy, Republicans or Democrats? Paul Krugman has the answer. Also a remarkable academic paper is damning on Central Banks’s QE analysis!

Bonds vs Equities - who’s winning in 2020? from 2020-09-28T08:28:45

Today I look at the year to date total returns of bonds and stocks, as well as at the dispersion of price changes within the official inflation numbers. Bike prices are up 6%, men’s’ suits down 17%.

Joe Biden and the Bond Markets from 2020-09-24T07:51:50

Polls are suggesting that a Democrat “clean sweep” is possible in the US elections next month. If that happens, fiscal spending will rise significantly. In the podcast I look at Biden’s plans, incl...

The Bank of England gets ready for Negative Rates. from 2020-09-18T06:39:49

Yesterday the BoE told the market to prepare its systems for negative interest rates. There’s likely more QE on the way too. In today’s episode I also look at the latest from the Fed, and China’s p...

Japan Special: is Japanification Such a bad thing after all? from 2020-09-14T07:59:47

Japan is getting a new Prime Minister later this week. Yoshihide Suga will replace Shinzo Abe. What does that mean for Japan’s low growth, high government debt economy. And is Japanification really...

David Graeber’s “Debt: the First 5000 years”. And explaining Sterling’s collapse. from 2020-09-11T07:23:34

Anthropologist David Graeber sadly died last week. One of his most important works is “Debt”, which challenges our idea of money, and calls for widespread debt forgiveness in society. In today’s po...

The Fed’s New Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework from 2020-09-09T07:29:47

Central Bank inflation targets don’t change very often, so it’s a massive deal when the world’s most important CB changes its goals. The Fed will no longer let disinflationary “bygones be bygones”....

The World of Bonds is back! So what happened in August’s fixed income markets? from 2020-09-07T07:35:32

This is the first episode of Season 2 of the World of Bonds. In it I examine the yield curve steepening we’ve seen, the relentless grind lower in credit spreads, and the stabilisation of the US dol...

Uncle Jim's Summer Bond Thoughts from 2020-07-30T07:19:36

This is the last episode of Series 1 of Uncle Jim's World of Bonds, although I'll be back over the summer if something interesting happens.  In this longer episode, I look at what bond mark...

GOLD! from 2020-07-27T06:57:37

A gold market special - how does today’s new record high for the “barbarous relic” relate to the world of bonds?

Evidence That Cutting Rates Below Zero Is Counterproductive? from 2020-07-22T07:06:35

We’ve got the first study on whether negative rates work from a behavioural point of view. Also today, the new Euro Area Recovery Plan, and a look at credit downgrades.

Are pandemics inflationary or deflationary? from 2020-07-20T06:40:12

You know we like a bit of economic history here, so here’s some evidence from hundreds of years of pandemics, from the Black Death to the flu of 1957.

The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton: Part 2. The problems with the book. from 2020-07-15T08:11:57

We looked at the 6 “myths” around deficits in my last podcast, and the idea that there is no constraint for sovereigns to borrow unlimited amounts in a world of economic slack. Today we look at som...

The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton: Part 1 from 2020-07-13T07:47:31

A special episode focusing on the economic book of the moment, The Deficit Myth. What are the limits to government borrowing? Are there any? In today’s podcast we look at the 6 myths highlighted in...

We Asked For a Green New Deal - We Got Half Priced Nando’s (Monday to Wednesday Only). from 2020-07-10T06:54:14

Today we look at the UK’s new fiscal stimulus measures, and also about the US “ban” on ESG.

No Atheists in Foxholes as the Ayn Rand Institute takes a Federal Loan from 2020-07-07T07:20:37

We also look at COVID adjusted inflation rates, and the strongest U.K. money supply growth since Henry VIII.

The New Taper Tantrum: the End of Furlough from 2020-07-06T06:49:04

The jobs rebound in the US has been strong so far. What happens though when furlough schemes start to come to an end later this year?

Gold, Nasdaq, gilts: the 2020 winners so far from 2020-07-01T07:17:39

A super strong Q2 for all asset classes. In today’s podcast I look at this year’s financial markets performance so far, as well as asking whether Boris Johnson has anything in common with FDR.

Yield Curve Control & Currency Depreciation from 2020-06-29T08:40:33

The Federal Reserve has started to talk about YCC as a possible next monetary policy step for the US. Japan got there first - it’s not actually had to buy many bonds to “pin” yields at zero. Is tha...

Is the Bank of England still independent? And explaining ESG outperformance. from 2020-06-26T09:09:54

Paul Tucker, former BoE Deputy Governor is in the press today worrying that central bank independence is under threat. In today’s podcast we look at his fears, and also analyse the outperformance o...

Angrynomics!!! Eric Lonergan & Mark Blyth’s great new book. from 2020-06-23T13:58:41

Eric Lonergan & Mark Blyth explain how anger put Trump into White House, led to Brexit and the Yellow Vests in France. And then discuss how negative interest rates allow societies to handle the roo...

The 2020 US Presidential Election: Biden’s to Lose? from 2020-06-22T07:29:38

After Trump’s disastrous Tulsa rally this weekend, it’s time to look at the latest betting odds for November’s election, and also to look at some of the policies that might get enacted in either a ...

Gilt Market Special from 2020-06-19T08:15:11

U.K. debt to GDP just passed the 100% level, and with yesterday’s slightly disappointing Bank Of England policy announcement, there’s going to be a lot of new gilts for the bond market to absorb.

The Spinal Tap Theory of Central Banking (“One Louder”). And is there an inflation spike? from 2020-06-16T08:40:04

Huge rally in credit today on the back of the Fed’s corporate bond buying announcement. Also I look at a couple of academic papers on the lockdown inflation experience.

Robin Hood, Robin Hood riding to Hertz’s rescue? from 2020-06-15T07:05:44

Sports bettors have discovered stocks (or stonks in the vernacular), and defaulting companies might just have found a saviour. For bond holders anyway.

“The Looming Bank Collapse”? from 2020-06-12T06:51:17

Frank Partnoy wrote an article with that title in The Atlantic, and it’s getting a lot of attention. Partnoy says that CLO defaults are coming and they’ll bring down the US banking sector. Is that ...

Italy’s new GDP linked bond from 2020-06-10T07:08:32

GDP linked bonds have long been discussed as a good option for governments. Italy is now issuing one, aimed at retail investors initially, but could this catch on?

2.5 Million New Jobs from 2020-06-08T06:51:34

A huge and unexpected boost to hiring in the US last month saw 2.5 new jobs created, sending the unemployment rate down from nearly 15% to 13%. Credit is rallying hard, and US Treasury bond yields ...

Surprise! The ECB overdelivers. from 2020-06-05T07:43:56

It’s all about positive surprises at the moment. The economic data is coming in slightly better than expected and the central banks are ramping up the policy response. As a result, risk assets are ...

Recessions are Racist from 2020-06-02T07:28:26

#blacklivesmatter. Economic slowdowns hit black families hard. On one estimate the economic impact of a downturn is 1.9 times more severe for a black family than a white one. Has the Fed got a resp...

Brexit, the velocity of money, Christopher Nolan’s cheap 747, ESG. from 2020-05-28T08:04:55

Something for everyone in today’s bond podcast...

Argentina & Hertz - defaults coming thick and fast from 2020-05-26T06:09:05

Two big defaults in the past few days, and more to come. Today’s episode also looks at rising U.K. debt/GDP.

The Psychology of Negative Interest Rates from 2020-05-22T07:50:52

Normally cutting rates sends a signal that the economy is getting a stimulus, that the amount of interest on savings is going to fall and therefore you should spend, spend, spend. But what if, as w...

Negative rates, everywhere from 2020-05-21T07:27:26

Having been very sceptical about negative interest rates in the U.K. only a week ago, new Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey seems to be changing his tune. And central banks around the world ar...

Equity markets and Credit Ratings from 2020-05-19T06:41:17

With central banks and governments promising to support companies in multiple ways, including even buying the bonds of junk bond issuers, you might think that debt burdens don’t matter anymore. You...

Debt Jubilees: Moral Hazard vs Fairness from 2020-05-15T06:08:50

In ancient times, at times of general economic distress, such as a crop failure, rulers would “wipe the slate clean” and cancel ALL society’s debts. There were winners and losers, but society as a ...

Deflation in the USA. It’s here. from 2020-05-13T07:26:29

Inflation turned negative in April, thanks to collapsing energy prices, but also as demand for consumer goods, like clothing, fell in lockdown. The Fed’s Jay Powell gives a speech today - will nega...

Negative US interest rates? That’s what the market thinks. from 2020-05-11T07:03:28

Negative yields are nothing new for most of the developed markets, but until the coronavirus hit, the US was a significant outlier. Last week the market’s expectations for the Fed shifted into nega...

Reinhart & Rogoff Revisited from 2020-05-07T07:16:37

“This Time is Different” was an economic hit when published in 2009. It’s a fascinating look at 800 years of government borrowing. But do the errors in its calculations undermine its message?

Why high government bond issuance doesn’t mean higher government bond yields from 2020-05-05T07:33:20

The US will be issuing around $4.5 trillion of Treasuries and Bills in 2020 - in this episode I suggest we look at demand, as well as supply when we consider what bond prices might do as a result.

The Winner’s Curse - do you want to “win” a bond auction? from 2020-05-04T10:10:03

Today I talk about bond issuance in both the credit markets and in government bonds. What’s the best way of issuing debt so that both buyers and sellers feel happy about the transaction?

Is Trump going to default on China’s US Treasury holdings? from 2020-05-01T07:24:16

There lots of noise this week about the US President’s idea that the Government should default on China’s $1 trillion UST holdings as “revenge” for Coronavirus. OMG.

Animal Crossing, zero interest rates, turnips. from 2020-04-29T09:06:12

Today’s FT has a great article about the slashing of interest rates in this Nintendo Switch game. A monetary policy petri-dish.

Defaults & Zombies from 2020-04-28T07:48

The annual Deutsche Bank Default Study came out yesterday. It’s always a brilliant read. Defaults are going to be high this year, but probably no higher than they would have been in the absence of ...

Italy on the credit rating knife-edge. Are the rating agencies too powerful at a time like this? from 2020-04-27T07:29:34

S&P kept Italy’s rating at BBB, and Italian government bonds are rallying. But with Moody’s also about to determine its possible action on keeping Italy as investment grade or not, the risks of a d...

Are Central Banks and Governments simply going to cancel outstanding public debt? from 2020-04-23T07:47:06

I once wrote a blog about the possibility of the U.K. government cancelling the gilts held by the Bank of England as part of the QE programme. Is that now becoming the consensus?

Emerging Markets: currencies down, bonds down. from 2020-04-22T07:17:44

As developed market bond yields retest their all time lows, EM is behaving differently. A dependence on foreign capital flows means that they have seen both their currencies fall, and their bond yi...

Debt monetisation: is New Zealand going to make another world “first”? from 2020-04-21T07:07:40

The RBNZ suggested last night that they’d consider monetising NZ’s debt. Elsewhere we talk about the fall in bond yields vs currency performance, and the US’s “exorbitant privilege”.

Falling oil, first defaults, and “orphaned” Emerging Market debt from 2020-04-20T07:01:29

Oil prices just collapsed to 20+ year lows, and a couple of high yield energy names have now defaulted, with more to come. In today’s episode we also discuss Central Bank balance sheets, and anothe...

Extend and Pretend: here come the bank waivers from 2020-04-17T07:44:38

US companies have aggressively borrowed from their bankers over the last month as their earnings disappear under economic lockdown. The rules of those borrowings allow the banks to put the business...

The Fed buys junk from 2020-04-14T07:14:19

Last week the US Federal Reserve announced the most startling monetary policy action of any Central Bank in this crisis: it’s going to buy High Yield ETFs, and also will regard Fallen Angels as inv...

Did...the Bank of England just announce helicopter money? from 2020-04-09T07:49:29

Well, they’d say not, absolutely not, no no no. But the government is going to start using the BoE as a source of financing and will run up overdrafts at the Old Lady. Twitter has decided that this...

The flat Phillips Curve: no inflation in good times, no deflation in bad times? from 2020-04-08T09:00:34

The “failure” of the Phillips Curve to show a good relationship between employment and the CPI has been a puzzle for economists. Markets are pricing in nearly a 50% chance of US deflation - is that...

World War 2 and the Fed’s Yield Curve Control from 2020-04-07T08:36:22

The US Federal Reserve pinned the Treasury yield curve at fixed levels during WW2. This caused some dislocations once the war was won, but eventually allowed the Fed to gain independence from the T...

No Coronabonds - but the next best thing? And a look at rising UK inflation expectations. from 2020-04-06T06:46:49

The idea that the eurozone was going to get together to issue Coronabonds to deal with the economic impact of the pandemic was always optimistic - but there’s more than one way to skin a cat, and t...

Follow the flows from 2020-04-03T08:25:01

The latest data for client flows in the US mutual and ETF market show that the outflows might be moderating, and that high yield funds are very much in demand right now. Lots of cash sitting on the...

The Black Death and bond markets from 2020-04-02T07:10:09

There’s a great Andy Mukhergee article on Bloomberg which looks at the economic impact of the Black Death in the 14th century. It draws on Paul Schmelzing’s excellent Bank of England paper and look...

How did we go bankrupt? Gradually, then suddenly. from 2020-04-01T08:12:52

Part 2: yesterday we looked at the extent of fiscal expansions around the world and the impact on debt/GDP ratios. Today we look at the three things governments can do to get debt levels down again...

Are we all going bust? from 2020-03-31T08:23:37

Part 1. Sovereign Debt to GDP ratios are going to increase by 10% to 25% over the course of this coronavirus crisis. It’s the right thing to do, but when this is all over how are we going to repay ...

Not now, credit rating agencies! from 2020-03-30T07:23

Fitch downgraded the UK’s credit rating on Friday, citing the increased borrowing it will need to take on the pay for the Coronavirus economic package. Is the U.K. really in increased risk of defau...

Fallen Angels from 2020-03-27T09:58:59

It’s expected that there will be hundreds of billions of dollars of investment grade bonds getting “junked” this year as economic conditions deteriorate. Ford was downgraded to high yield yesterday...

Coronabonds: is Europe ready for jointly guaranteed debt yet? from 2020-03-26T09:48:36

9 Eurozone nations have suggested that the bloc issues jointly guaranteed bonds to help finance the response to Coronavirus. Germany isn’t keen - yet. Where would bonds like these trade compared to...

Them’s the breaks. from 2020-03-25T08:18:49

US inflation expectations have COLLAPSED through this crisis, and some market expectations for future prices elsewhere in the world are now anticipating deflation. What’s driving the fall, and how ...

More defaults than the Great Depression? from 2020-03-24T09:45:17

The level of defaults priced in to corporate bonds - both investment grade and high yield is pretty extreme. How does it compare with the worst periods in history?

Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds (Trailer) from 2020-03-23T09:45:17