Tim Weber is bullish $AMPY despite the oil spill - a podcast by Andrew Walker

Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).

AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!

Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy 

Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Extra Disclosures
3:10 AMPY Overview
6:25 Diving into the spill
9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent
15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?
20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?
22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment
22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity
28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?
30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?
33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-10
39:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?
44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault
46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?
50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?
56:00 Tim's closing thoughts

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