Podcasts by NAB Morning Call
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.
Further podcasts by Phil Dobbie
Podcast on the topic Wirtschaft
All episodes
More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty from 2022-02-20T19:33:50
Monday 21st February 2022
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There’s more uncertainty in the markets as...
Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words from 2022-02-17T19:36:06
Friday 18th February 2022
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There are mixed signals in the markets tod...
Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight from 2022-02-16T19:39:09
Thursday 17th February 2022
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There are no signs of inflation abating ...
Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit) from 2022-02-15T19:28:50
Wednesday 16th February 2022
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There’s a bit more positivity in the ma...
Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’ from 2022-02-14T19:38:13
Tuesday 15th February 2022
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The rhetoric is still that Russia is on t...
War talk rocks markets, all eyes on the East from 2022-02-13T19:37:37
Monday 14th February 2022
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There was a swift response on Friday to sp...
High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes? from 2022-02-10T19:31:35
Friday 11th February 2022
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Markets reacted swiftly to a higher-than-e...
Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers from 2022-02-09T19:22:35
Thursday 10th February 2022
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Bond yields have fallen back a bit a lit...
China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession? from 2022-02-08T19:34:07
Wednesday 9th February 2022
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In the absence of any big statistical re...
Markets still guessing the path of inflation from 2022-02-07T19:27:30
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In the absence of any big statistical releases markets are treading water ahe...
US kept working through Omicron peak from 2022-02-06T19:25:05
Monday 7th February 2021
Friday’s non-farm payrolls data showed how more people returned to work in the US whilst Omicron saw the highest wave of COVID-19 infections across the country. Ov...
Tight squeeze or a gentle touch? from 2022-02-03T19:15:06
Friday 4th February 2022
The Bank of England is certainly all out to stop any risk of wages pushing inflation out of control. The decision was one vote away from a half percent rate rise, ...
A tale of two central banks from 2022-02-02T19:46:39
Thursday 2rd February 2022
You could say its the best of times and the worst of times, with a rampant jobs recovery tempered by high inflation. Certainly, two central banks have a differen...
Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right? from 2022-02-01T19:28:56
Wednesday 2nd February 2022
The RBA is still reticent to signal a rate rise this year, even as they lift their inflation forecasts. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says a lot rests on what Governor Low...
RBA to join the rate-rise race? from 2022-01-31T19:42:23
Tuesday 1st February 2022
It seems more likely than not that the RBA will announce an end to QEW today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says core timed mean inflation is running two years ahead of ...
Aussie dollar loses break point from 2022-01-30T19:31:57
Monday 31st January 2021
Whilst it was quite a night for Rafael Nadal, Friday had a less positive ending for the Aussie dollar, falling below 70 US cents to its lowest level since mid-2020...
The aftermath of the Fed from 2022-01-27T19:41:39
Friday 28th January 2022
There has been quite a turnaround after the sharp falls in share prices and the rise in bond yields that we saw kicking off during the Jerome Powell press conferen...
Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy from 2022-01-26T20:27:37
Thursday 27th January 2022
The FOMC has met and reaffirmed that rates will rise from March. NAB’s David de Garis says it was exactly what the markets were expecting, although the response ...
Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off from 2022-01-24T19:35:02
Tuesday 25th January 2022
Markets have been gearing up for the FOMC meeting this week, but for a while at least tensions over Ukraine seem to have driven a strong risk-off push, with signi...
Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week from 2022-01-23T19:33:36
Monday 24th January 2022
On today's podcast:
Curiously bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed will signal a March hike. NAB’s Tap...
Aussie jobs flourish and US equities bounce from 2022-01-20T19:23:39
Friday 21st January 2022
Australia’s job numbers were well above expectations yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks about what this means for the RBA, who are still at odds with the market o...
Inflation (almost) everywhere from 2022-01-19T19:40:06
Thursday 20th January 2021
The sell-off of US bonds has halted, temporarily, but it continues in Europe, particularly in the UK where high inflation numbers will heighten the Bank of Engla...
Markets swallow the post-Omicron outlook pill from 2022-01-18T19:28:32
Wednesday 19th January 2021
US bond yields are now at their highest levels for two years, with equities now joining the sell-off, particularly for tech stocks on expectations of rising ban...
China bucks the tightening trend from 2022-01-17T19:29:55
Tuesday 18th January 2022
Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten for faster central bank tightening. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discusses on today’s Morning Call, the excepti...
Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts from 2022-01-16T19:20:52
Monday 17th January 2022
The Fed kicks of its schedule of FOMC meetings next week. We know tackling inflation will be front and centre, but as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, rate hikes are ...
Looking ahead to a better 2022 from 2021-12-21T19:40:04
Wednesday 22nd December 2021
There was a lot more positive sentiment in the markets overnight. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s all down to Omicron news, with infection rates falling in Sout...
Europe’s cold cold Christmas from 2021-12-20T19:36:42
Tuesday 21st December 2021
Energy markets are dominating market moves in the run up to Christmas. Oil prices have fallen significantly on fears that travel demand will fall as Omicron gain...
A very cautious Christmas from 2021-12-19T19:33:30
Monday 20th December 2021
Markets are very cautious ahead of the Christmas break, with concerns about the impact of the Omicron strain. The Netherlands has gone into another lockdown and r...
BoE lifts rates despite everything from 2021-12-16T19:33:38
Friday 17th December 2021
A rate rise by the Bank of England has surprised many, particularly in an environment of record COVID infections, and a hospitality industry calling for governmen...
Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise from 2021-12-15T19:47:32
Thursday 16th December 2021
The Fed, not surprisingly, are tapering faster as the race is on to lift rates next year. NAB’s David de Garis says the QE ending by March clears the decks, wit...
It’s all about dots and jabs from 2021-12-14T19:32:01
Wednesday 15th December 2021
Markets are still pulled in two directions. First there’s the continued uncertainty of the new COVID variant, which might be mild (or not), but is spreading li...
A little more caution on a lot less news from 2021-12-13T19:37:28
Tuesday 14th December 2021
There’s a little more caution this morning, with equities down, driven by banks, travel and energy, with stay at home stocks doing better. But NAB’s Tapas Strick...
UK empties the glass, but markets still half full from 2021-12-12T19:25:27
Monday 13th December 2021
Markets were trading last week on the basis that the Omicron variant was not as lethal as the Delta strain, even though infections were spreading rapidly. NAB’s R...
Transmission and inflation - the two concerns from 2021-12-09T19:28:12
Friday 10th December 2021
Things were definitely a bit quieter overnight, with markets stepping back a little as they wait to figure out just what impact Omicron is having, and which way i...
Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces from 2021-12-08T19:24:06
Thursday 9th December 2021
Even though equity markets have slowed, bond markets are still reflecting positive sentiment around coping with the Omicron strain. NAB’s Gavin Friend says Pfize...
Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope from 2021-12-07T19:42:18
Wednesday 8th December 2021
There’s a lot of positive sentiment around this morning. Equities are rising sharply in the US and Europe, oil is up and bond yields are rising. NAB’s Gavin Fri...
China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back from 2021-12-06T19:30:13
Tuesday 7th December 2021
US equites are roaring back, so is oil, with bond yields rising again. This newfound optimism has been driven by policy easing measures from China’s central bank,...
Too tight too quickly? from 2021-12-05T19:36:25
Monday 6th December 2021
Markets were far more cautious on Friday. In part there are still concerns about the new Omicron strain, although circumstantial evidence so far is pointing to it ...
There’s a certain uncertainty from 2021-12-02T19:42:07
Friday 3rd December 2021
Markets have displayed much mor epositive sentiment in the last 24 hours, but its not lasting. Gains in US equities have fallen away a little, and oil prices have ...
WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets from 2021-12-01T19:25:35
Thursday 2nd December 2021
Markets were choppy again overnight, but there is renewed hope with circumstantial evidence that the Omicron variant might be less severe. A WHO press conference...
Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell? from 2021-11-30T19:16:44
Wednesday 1st December 2021
You might have expected that Jerome Powell would use the uncertainty of the new COVID strain to downplay the need to adjust the speed of tapering by the Federal...
The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty from 2021-11-29T19:29:54
Tuesday 30th November 2021
On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Ray Attrill reminds us that the CSIRO’s Dr Rob Grenfell predicted, back in the middle of the year, that about now we would see a va...
Did the markets overreact to Omicron news? from 2021-11-28T19:35:53
Monday 29th November 2021
There was a very strong market response to the news of the Omicron virus strain on Friday. Equities were hit hard, currencies ran for the shelter of safe havens a...
Talking turkey on central bank thinking from 2021-11-25T19:30:11
Friday 26th November 2021
As America gobbles up Turkeys NAB’s Gavi Friend talks through the latest positioning on tightening by central banks. The FOMC minutes suggested a more hawkish app...
Is the US getting too hot to handle? from 2021-11-24T19:36:32
Thursday 25th November 2021
There were many more positive signs for the US economy overnight, with initial jobless claims at an all-time low. The US dollar remains in favour, with the DXY ...
Happy tales from Euroland from 2021-11-23T19:29:18
Wednesday 24th November 2021
There was a surprise for those expecting the PMI numbers on Tuesday to confirm the widening gap between US and European economic performance. Let’s be honest, ...
US dollar rises as Powell stays put. from 2021-11-22T19:29:18
Tuesday 23rd November 2021
The US dollar and bond yields rose on the news that Jerome Powell is to keep the top job at the Fed for another term, with Lael Brainard as deputy. Even though b...
A speedy taper and European tantrums from 2021-11-21T19:25:22
Monday 22nd November 2021
The divide between the US and Europe became more pronounced at the end of last week, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains 0n today’s Morning Call. On the one side of ...
US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues from 2021-11-18T19:46:22
Friday 19th November 2021
US equities have bounced back a little today, but, as NAB’s Gavi Friend describes, it’s been a session without significant event risk or data flow. Equities and b...
Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up? from 2021-11-17T19:17:35
Thursday 18th November 2021
Australian wage growth is in line with expectations, but where to from here? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ivan Colhoun if there’s a chance we’ll see wages escalate in...
Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK from 2021-11-16T19:33:13
Wednesday 17th November 2021
It’s been a positive session overnight, with US retail sales rising and US jobs bouncing back. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s difficult to tell how much of t...
Europe’s caution, China’s hope from 2021-11-15T19:30:52
Tuesday 16th November 2021
The Euro has lost ground this morning, with concerns over COVID, following lockdowns in Holland and Austria, and rising cases in Germany. There remains a very di...
US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment from 2021-11-14T19:27:51
Friday 15th November 2021
Hot on the heels of the surprising increase in inflation in the US earlier last week, Friday saw an unexpected fall in consumer sentiment. The Michigan survey hit...
Have a little faith from 2021-11-11T19:25:30
Friday 12th November 2021
Markets have been a little more positive over the last 24 hours, with the NASDAQ back on the rise, although a rising US dollar continues to hurt the S&P, and the ...
Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed from 2021-11-10T19:34:26
Thursday 11th November 2021
The inflation numbers from the US have been eye popping. That’s the description by the Fed’s Mary Daly as US CPI hits 6.2%, a 30 year high. NAB’s Gavin Friend p...
Markets out of steam on inflation day from 2021-11-09T19:21:29
Wednesday 10th November 2021
There’s been a move away from risk assets. It could just be equity markets running out of steam after a particularly strong rally, but a Financial Stability Re...
Taking a breather from 2021-11-08T19:16:54
Tuesday 9th November 2021
You’d think markets would be bathed in positivity, particularly in the US, with a string of good news, including infrastructure spending, the COVID pill and the r...
Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion from 2021-11-07T19:26:59
Monday 8th November 2021
You might expect a little more optimism in the markets given Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls data in the US, Pfizer’s news about a pill for COVID sufferers, the ...
Bank of England Backs Down from 2021-11-04T19:20:12
Friday 5th November 2021
There has been a sharp response in bond yields and currency markets to the Bank of England’s decision not to lift interest rates. Furthermore, Andrew Bailey is sug...
Tighter but taking time from 2021-11-03T19:31:09
Thursday 4th November 2021
There weren’t any surprises in from the FOMC this morning. The Fed will cut asset purchases by $15 billion this month, with a further $15 billion in December, an...
Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation from 2021-11-02T19:40:05
Wednesday 3rd November 2021
Central banks are still grappling with what to do about inflation. The RBA is reluctant to talk about interest rate hikes anytime soon, because they don’t think...
RBA more uncertain than the cup winner from 2021-11-01T19:28:58
Tuesday 2nd November 2021
For once we are going into an RBA meeting unsure of what the outcome will be. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we have as much chance of predicting a winner in the Cup toda...
The winds of change in central bank policy from 2021-10-31T19:32:10
Monday 1st November 2021
There were more big moves in Australian bond yields on Friday as the RBA failed to buy up the April 2024 bonds that were the focus of its yield curve control (YCC)...
Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again. from 2021-10-28T19:26:24
Friday 29th October 2021
Three year bond yields rose well above the RBA’s target of 0.1 percent yesterday, but the central bank didn’t buy any up as part of its yield control. That pushed ...
Going bond crazy from 2021-10-27T19:46:09
Thursday 28th October 2021
There have been sharp movements in bond yields, with front end yields rising and falls at the back end. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it reflects expectations that ris...
Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high from 2021-10-26T19:27:09
Wednesday 27th October 2021
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers took to Twitter yesterday to challenge Janet Yellen over inflation policy, suggesting the risk of losing control of i...
Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend from 2021-10-25T19:39:09
Tuesday 26th October 2021
The markets continue to be dominated by rising inflation concerns, including the price of oil. WTI got over $85 today, but has fallen back since. NAB’s Tapas Stri...
Powell wants time to heal from 2021-10-24T19:17:42
Monday 25th October 2021
Comments from Jerome Powell added to the volatility in bond markets on Friday. The chair of the Fed reinforced that it was time to taper, but suggested rate rises ...
Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high from 2021-10-21T19:27:47
A sharp fall in commodity prices hasn’t dampening inflation expectations, and with it the assumption that central banks will bring interest rates forward. NAB’s David de Garis says it’s been a day ...
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The inflation debate heats up from 2021-10-20T19:37:11
Thursday 21st October 2021
Equities are rising to new highs as risk sentiment improves on the back of strong earnings results in the US, even though inflation remains an ever-present conce...
Earnings anything but a damp squid from 2021-10-19T19:27:52
Wednesday 20th October 2021
US equities have had a strong session, although Procter and Gamble weas one of the first major household companies to highlight margin squeeze from supply chain...
Inflation and slowing economies. Isn’t there a word for that? from 2021-10-18T19:34:53
Tuesday 19th October 2021
Bond yields are higher globally as inflation concerns mount. New Zealand’s CPI read (2.2% QoQ) sent 10 year yields up 16 basis points, spilling over to Australia....
Shares rising, despite everything. Please explain. from 2021-10-17T19:46:21
Monday 18th October 2021
Equity markets were buoyed by strong US earnings results and stronger than expected retail sales numbers, but there are many reasons to suggest this confidence mig...
Have inflation concerns peaked? from 2021-10-14T19:26:19
Friday 15th October 2021
Markets have taken a more positive outlook overnight, with sharp rises in equities in the US and Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s been helped by falling bond y...
Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number from 2021-10-13T19:35:20
Thursday 14th October 2021
US CPI numbers were a little higher than anticipated. NAB’s David de Garis says we did see some support for bond yields, but markets slipped back when it was rea...
IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation from 2021-10-12T19:38:01
Wednesday 13th October 2021
The IMF released revised forecasts overnight, together with a warning that central banks need to tighten their monetary policy if inflation persists. Inflation ...
Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish from 2021-10-11T19:53:41
Tuesday 12th October 2021
Fuel prices are rising, with the gas crisis now pushing up oil and coal prices. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland says central banks are now worried about...
Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen the Fed’s tapering intention from 2021-10-10T19:33:18
Monday 11th October 2021
Non-farm payrolls numbers from the US on Friday were less than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the numbers weren’t as bad as they seem, because they includ...
Everyone seems happy to kick the can from 2021-10-07T19:23:19
Friday 8th October 2021
Two cans are being kicked. The US debt ceiling can is being kicked into December, but the issues remain. The gas can has been kicked along by a promise of more fuel...
Where is the safe haven? from 2021-10-06T19:47:33
Thursday 7th October 2021
The fuel crisis in Europe and the UK is impacting global markets, with shares taking a hit. There’s been no rush to bonds given the impending inflation concerns, ...
Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates from 2021-10-05T19:43:45
Wednesday 6th October 2021
The currency markets suggest there’s a risk on mood this morning, with the US dollar gaining on the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Strong non-manufacturing ISM nu...
Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan from 2021-10-04T19:42:54
Tuesday 5th October 2021
Oil prices rose quickly this morning after OPEC+ announced they would stick with their earlier plans of rising production in November by 400 thousand barrels a day...
China to secure fuel at all costs from 2021-09-30T20:45:53
Friday 1st October 2021
There’s a fair bit to chew on today, with commodity currencies helped by word from China that they must secure enough energy for winter, whatever the cost. The US h...
Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms from 2021-09-29T20:35:52
Thursday 30th September 2021
Markets are much calmer this morning. Equities have managed to climb a little, with the biggest moves in currencies and commodities. NAB’s David de Garis says ...
Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover from 2021-09-28T20:50:12
Wednesday 29th September 2021
It seems like it was a fairly heated Senate Banking Committee meeting in the US overnight. Flags were raised about whether Jerome Powell will win another term...
Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher from 2021-09-27T20:44:57
Tuesday 28th September 2021
It seems markets are still trading on the hawkishness of central banks, particularly the Fed, where we’re seeing bond yields significantly higher and tech stock...
Add the debt ceiling to the list of concerns from 2021-09-26T20:32:03
Monday 27th September 2021
Last week was a very volatile week, driven by the uncertainty over Evergrande, the unexpected hawkishness of central banks, continued concerns over supply chains...
Optimism. But why? from 2021-09-23T20:07:40
Friday 24th September 2021
There’s been a big shift to risk-on overnight, with equities rising and bonds falling, pushing yields much higher in the US and across Europe. But why? The risk ...
Not yet, but soon says the Fed from 2021-09-22T20:25:07
Thursday 23rd September 2021
As expected, the Fed didn’t give a specific date for the start of tapering, but suggested it should all be done by the middle of next year. NAB’s David de Gari...
Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed and oil inventories from 2021-09-21T20:26:29
Wednesday 22nd September 2021
Markets are still concerned over the Evergrande debacle, although equities and currencies and bonds have all calmed down a little overnight. China has been on...
Evergrande Contagion Fears from 2021-09-20T20:43:22
Tuesday 21st September 2021
Markets have been running for cover overnight over fears that a default by Evergrande could spread beyond the Chinese property sector to the rest of the world. ...
Just another cautious Monday from 2021-09-19T20:45:27
Monday 20th September 2021
There’s more caution in the markets as we kick off a week doinated by central banks – the US Fed, BoE, BoJ, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank, Norgesbank all meeting...
Lots of movement, not much direction from 2021-09-16T20:18:38
Friday 17th September 2021
There was a lot of movement overnight, with US equities falling, then regaining some of the losses in late trade. Most currencies fell against a rising US dollar...
High hopes or buying the dip? from 2021-09-15T20:35
Thursday 16th September 2021
There’s a little more optimism in the markets this morning, particularly in US equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s no overarching good news, suggesti...
Has US inflation peaked? from 2021-09-14T20:20:45
Wednesday 15th September 2021
Inflation in the US has slowed. Is this a win for those arguing it is all transitory? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what this means for the Fed and ex...
Oil Higher and RBA’s Lowe-down from 2021-09-13T20:41:23
Tuesday 14th September 2021
Markets are a little mixed ahead of today’s US CPI numbers. But, just how important are these numbers when the Fed is far more focused on returning the country ...
Three reasons to be cautious from 2021-09-12T20:28:35
Monday 13th September 2021
Talks between Biden and Xi on Friday added to market concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was the realisation of how long it would take to resolve issues, if e...
ECB, calibrating not tapering from 2021-09-09T20:39:14
Friday 10th September 2021
As NAB’s Gavin Friend vehemently predicted on yesterday’s Morning Call, the ECB has announced that they will cut back purchases under their Pandemic Emergency Pr...
Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same from 2021-09-08T20:28:05
Thursday 9th September 2021
As expected, there were no moves from the Bank of Canada overnight, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says the same will not be true for the ECB tonight. They will cut bac...
RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually from 2021-09-07T20:30:08
Wednesday 8th September 2021
The RBA is pushing ahead with its tapering of bond purchases, just as predicted on The Morning Call, but the bank is doing it in a very dovish fashion. There w...
COVID versus the central banks from 2021-09-06T20:21:32
Tuesday 7th September 2021
The RBA meets today and the big question is, will they push on with their tapering schedule, reducing weekly purchases from $5b per week to $4b. NAB’s Ray Attril...
Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback? from 2021-09-05T20:38:47
Monday 6th September 2021
Non-farm payrolls grew well below market expectations I the US on Friday, and are certainly not the substantial progress the Fed has been looming for. Today on Th...
Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers from 2021-09-02T20:34:47
Friday 3rd September 2021
There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what the reaction will be if the numbers c...
Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth from 2021-09-01T20:28:05
Thursday 2nd September 2021
The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, and overnight they only came half way...
Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around from 2021-08-31T20:36:21
Wednesday 1st September 2021
Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to grow, actually fell. Add falling consumer c...
Hold on for the payrolls from 2021-08-30T20:35:42
Tuesday 31st August 2021
It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will give us ...
Powell maintains taper silence from 2021-08-29T20:39:09
Monday 30th August 2021
The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning Call. Yet the markets still reacted. Phi...
Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk from 2021-08-26T20:17:27
Friday 27th August 2021
Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fairly limited. It certainly hasn’t knock...
High hopes keep getting higher from 2021-08-25T20:33:24
Thursday 26th August 2021
Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's helped the Aussie dollar again today. N...
More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar from 2021-08-24T20:36:17
Wednesday 25th August 2021
The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Rising iron ore prices and zero new cas...
Markets turn giddy on COVID news from 2021-08-23T20:18:55
Tuesday 24th August 2021
There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there are early signs th...
Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped from 2021-08-22T20:19:03
Monday 23rd August 2021
Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the FO...
Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise from 2021-08-19T20:31:24
Friday 20th August 2021
There are more concerns over the global growth story, with commodity prices falling and the Aussie dollar one of the hardest hit currencies this morning. NAB’s Davi...
Central banks holding back from 2021-08-18T20:31:34
Thursday 19th August 2021
The RBNZ didn’t push interest rates up yesterday, in light of the national lockdown. NAB’s David de Garis says the decision has been pushed back to October, all b...
Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown? from 2021-08-17T20:39:01
Wednesday 18th August 2021
With New Zealand in lockdown will the RBNZ still push ahead with its expected rate rise today? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says central banks take a mid-term view, and ...
China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow from 2021-08-16T20:38:59
Tuesday 17th August 2021
Markets remain unsure as to the speed of the global recovery, but there’s mounting evidence that the full extent of the rebound will be delayed. That’s obviously t...
Back to uncertainty from 2021-08-15T20:37:09
Monday 16th August 2021
The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected consumer confidence report in the US. NA...
On the road to nowhere from 2021-08-12T20:30:26
Friday 13th August 2021
There was very little movement in the markets overnight, with thing trading during the northern summer, compounded by any significant news. Bond yields have edged h...
Inflation the way the Fed wanted it from 2021-08-11T20:32:38
Thursday 12th August 2021
US CPI eased in July. NAB’s David de Garis says it was helped by less pressure on used car prices and airline fares, whilst food prices remain elevated. It means ...
Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for? from 2021-08-10T20:31:55
Wednesday 11th August 2021
Markets are a little more optimistic today, but there seems little rhyme nor reason. NAB’s Ray Attrill says oil has bounced back, seemingly ignoring yesterdays c...
Code red, but focus is on the Fed from 2021-08-09T20:46:07
Tuesday 10th August 2021
The UN chief has called the latest IPCC report on climate change “a code red for humanity”. The shorter timeframes for rising temperatures has not had any market i...
US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’? from 2021-08-08T20:30:54
Monday 9th August 2021
There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top end of a broad range of expectations. The ...
Watch Germany go from 2021-08-05T20:38:11
Friday 6th August 2021
I amongst the mixed data from the US – including signs that the job recovery is slowing - and the varied opinions of central bankers, take a look at what’s happening...
Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up from 2021-08-04T20:22:54
Thursday 5th August 2021
The New Zealand unemployment rate has fallen sharply, adding more to the expectation that the RBNZ will lift interest rates next month. NAB’s David de Garis says t...
A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery from 2021-08-03T20:39:21
Wednesday 4th August 2021
Central banks seem to be taking a very optimistic view of the rate of recovery right now. The RBA has decided it will push ahead with its tapering of asset purcha...
More caution on manufacturing undershoot from 2021-08-02T20:39:04
Tuesday 3rd August 2021
There was a sharp drop in Treasury yields soon after the release of the ISM Manufacturing numbers from the US. The expectation was that they would rise slightly, bu...
Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore? from 2021-08-01T20:29:29
Monday 2nd August 2021
Iron ore prices fell below U$200 on Friday as China indicated that they would be cutting demand. It hit the Aussie dollar on Friday, which was already suffering as v...
US GDP was better than it looks from 2021-07-29T20:29:23
Friday 30th July 2021
Markets have had a chance to absorb the dovish sentiment from the Fed yesterday and take stock of mixed data overnight. On the surface US GDP numbers looked weaker th...
Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’ from 2021-07-28T20:28
Thursday 29th July 2021
There was a tame response to the FOMC statement this morning, but a more marked reaction during the press conference that followed. NAB’s David de Garis says the tu...
Rocky road for China investors from 2021-07-27T20:36:46
Wednesday 28th July 2021
Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how expectations for tapering by th...
Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows from 2021-07-26T20:21:40
Tuesday 27th July 2021
Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how expectations for tapering by the ...
High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies from 2021-07-25T20:40:27
Monday 26th July 2021
Last week markets were pulled between concerns over the rise of the Delta variant and the encouragement of strong corporate earnings data. This week could go either ...
Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE from 2021-07-22T20:30:27
Friday 23rd July 2021
Equities have been helped by earnings results and a little less COVID concern. On the macro front US jobless claims rose unexpectedly, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says a l...
Risk back on with rebound expectations from 2021-07-21T20:40:18
Thursday 22nd July 2021
The rebound from the COVID concerns at the start of the week is now complete, with bond yields rebounding further overnight, equities bouncing higher and commoditie...
Markets recover, but why? from 2021-07-20T20:42:54
Wednesday 21st July 2021
Curiously, much of the negative market reaction at the start of the week has seen a reversal in the last 24 hours, even though the reasons for the concern remain. ...
Markets Hit by the Delta Blues from 2021-07-19T20:40:26
Tuesday 20th July 2021
There’s not been a lot of economic data around, but markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases. NABs Tapas Strickland says its being driven by the...
OPEC drip feeds more oil from 2021-07-18T20:32:03
Monday 19th July 2021
OPEC reached a deal of sorts over the weekend which will see supplies increase incrementally over the next few months. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril said markets had been expe...
Cautious for no clear reason from 2021-07-15T20:14:39
Friday 16th July 2021
Markets returned to a more cautious outlook overnight, with US equities losing ground and bond yields falling. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, its difficult to find...
More inflation, RBNZ moves first from 2021-07-14T20:36:02
Thursday 15th July 2021
There’s a world of difference in the approaches being taken by central banks in response to the COVID recovery. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through some of them, start...
Another US inflation surprise. Still transitory? from 2021-07-13T20:34:13
Wednesday 14th July 2021
US inflation has surprised again. It was expected to ease back after the 5% jump last month, but this time its higher still. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Stricklan...
Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB from 2021-07-12T20:36:18
Tuesday 13th July 2021
US stocks hit new highs as Q2 earnings season kicks off. NAB’s said it also reflects a recovery from Asia emanating from China’s easing of reserve requirements. Chin...
Delta’s day off from 2021-07-11T17:11:44
Monday 12th July 2021
For most of last week markets grew increasingly cautious about the spread of the Delta variant and fears of further lockdowns in major economies, Australia included. ...
2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question from 2021-07-08T20:23:20
Friday 9th July 2021
Is it below 2 percent or at 2 percent? The ECB has made subtle changes to its inflation target, but has flatly rejected the Fed approach of average inflation targeting...
Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review from 2021-07-07T19:00:59
Thursday 8th July 2021
The FOMC minutes were released this morning, but a more significant central bank release could be out later in the day. Christine Lagarde is said to be released the ...
Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates from 2021-07-06T20:25:50
Wednesday 7th July 2021
Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a number of factors, including weaker than exp...
Freedom Day for the UK, D-Day for the RBA from 2021-07-05T20:15:52
Tuesday 6th July 2021
Boris Johnson has told the UK public that they are just two weeks away from removing their masks, getting back to work and forgetting about social distancing. Within ...
Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks from 2021-07-04T20:36:29
Monday 5th July 2021
Not too strong not too light, that seems to be the view of the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday. It wasn’t strong enough to signal change in the Fed’s direction s...
The last day of treading water from 2021-07-01T20:39:44
Friday 2nd July 2021
Markets have been treading water all week waiting for the non-farm payrolls data, particularly in bond yields which hardly moved at all in the last 2 4hours. NAB’s Gav...
Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts from 2021-06-30T20:28:10
Thursday 1st July 2021
As we’ve mentioned before, central bank speakers are having little influence on the markets since the sharp response to the last FOMC meeting. As David de Garis says...
Confidence rising, but so is the Delta strain from 2021-06-29T20:45:48
Wednesday 30th June 2021
Markets have largely moved sideways, pulled between rising confidence numbers in the US and Europe, and concerns about rising cases of the Delta strain. As NAB’s R...
Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads further from 2021-06-28T20:39:29
Tuesday 29th June 2021
A little more cautiousness has crept back into the markets says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, although it might be as much to do with the prelude to the non-farm payrolls ...
Lock down means no RBA lowdown from 2021-06-27T20:34:02
Monday 28th June 2021
With Sydney suddenly flung into lockdown, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the market reaction will be today. One immediate repercussion will be we won’t hear ...
Biden whittles down plan to win support from 2021-06-24T20:33:16
Friday 25th June 2021
Joe Biden has struck a deal to push ahead with his infrastructure plan – a much reduced version. That’s helped US equities today. Ahead of that, it was a mixed day on...
The crawl back is done, reflation takes over from 2021-06-23T20:41:47
Thursday 24th April 2021
The crawl back from last week’s FOMC surprise is more or less complete. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, Treasury yields are back to where they were just before...
Fed cools things down; words from the RBA later from 2021-06-22T20:26:28
Wednesday 23rd June 2021
Jerome Powell has been giving is testimony on Capitol Hill and he, like all the Fed speakers over the last 24 hours, has been trying his hardest to calm the market...
Swift turnaround as markets rethink FOMC response from 2021-06-21T20:29:47
Tuesday 22nd June 2021
Well, we did say it was a rather extreme reaction to the FOMC meeting last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market moves overnight suggest the response was over...
Aussie dollar caught in the storm from 2021-06-20T20:39:22
Monday 21st June 2021
The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week., hitting a two-month high, after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar payi...
NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out, but currencies fall from 2021-06-17T20:12:35
Friday 18th June 2021
The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed. As David de Grais discusses on today's podcast, it’s impetus was enough to squash ...
Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap from 2021-06-16T20:20:37
Thursday 17th June 2021
At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, twit the dot plots pointing to rate rises as soon as 2023. It’s a much more haw...
Retail sales numbers add to caution ahead of the FOMC from 2021-06-15T20:43:33
Wednesday 16th June 2021
The FOMC meeting is just a day away are markets are being cautious, with little movements in bonds or equities. A weaker than expected set of retail sales numbers ...
Oil nudges higher, bond yields bounce back ahead of FOMC meeting this week from 2021-06-14T20:32:24
Tuesday 15th June 2021
Oil has hit a two-year high. This morning NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why oil prices could continue to rise. Are we heading for $100 oil? Also, why bond yields are ri...
Market unphased by US CPI; ECB stays dovish despite upping forecasts from 2021-06-10T20:08:11
Friday 11th June 2021
US CPI was a higher than expected, but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride, although it’s helped push equities higher today. NAB’s David de Garis ...
Inflation – mixed signals and opinions ahead of US CPI from 2021-06-09T20:39:32
Thursday 10th June 2021
Bond yields have fallen further overnight, in some cases to levels not seen for several months. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it could be market positioning, although...
Markets going nowhere, yet US job openings boom from 2021-06-08T20:33:49
Wednesday 9th June 2021
Inflation fears have eased further, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, with bond yields pushing lower and market volatility easing. That’s despite the JOLTs (job openings) nu...
Goldilocks loses a little of her shine from 2021-06-07T20:27:44
Tuesday 8th June 2021
If the non-farm payrolls gave the markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday – with jobs numbers that weren’t too hot or too cold – then maybe markets are already starting...
US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot from 2021-06-06T20:36:02
Monday 7th June 2021
Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reinforce...
Taper torment with more calls for Fed to take their foot off the pedal from 2021-06-03T20:39:11
Friday 4th June 2021
On today’s podcast NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a session that has been in two parts. First off there was the response to a series of strong numbers from the US, i...
Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs from 2021-06-02T20:21:35
Thursday 3rd June 2021
If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was the rising concern about input costs. Eve...
No surprises from the RBA, and don’t be surprised by an uptick in Aussie GDP today from 2021-06-01T20:28:48
Wednesday 2nd June 2021
The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now. Those who were expecting a more hawkish attitude...
China wants to curb the Yuan and grow the family from 2021-05-31T20:44:18
Tuesday 1st June 2021
Markets have been understandably quiet with the US and UK on holiday. China delivered its PMIs, with the manufacturing read a little below expectations, and non-manuf...
Month end comes early for some from 2021-05-30T20:35:15
Monday 31st May 2021
It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there were a lot of intra-day currency moves late in the ...
More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal from 2021-05-27T20:19:36
Friday 28th May 2021
Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight. The Bank of England’s Gertjan Vlieghe argued a scenario where rates in the UK co...
RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down from 2021-05-26T20:25:01
Thursday 27th May 2021
The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating that there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year, which bolstered the Kiwi dollar and it hasn’t really ...
China gets Yuan Up on the Dollar from 2021-05-25T20:36:55
Wednesday 26th May 2021
Okay, we know The US dollar has fallen again, with rises in the Euro, and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick? NAB’s Ray Attrill says there have been conflict...
Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concerns from 2021-05-24T20:29:47
Tuesday 25th May 2021
Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central banks that inflation is only transito...
Lagarde’s tapering reluctance; vaccines winning against mutations from 2021-05-23T20:40:27
Monday 24th May 2021
There was a strong set of numbers at the end of the week; PMI reads were generally good, UK retail bounced back and vaccines, we’re told, will do a good job against th...
It was another Turnaround Thursday from 2021-05-20T20:40:38
Friday 21st May 2021
Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week's FOMC minutes. The US dollar is also lower, ...
Fed taper talk pushes yields higher from 2021-05-19T20:15:32
Thursday 20th May 2021
The FOMC minutes gave away more than expected, with the Fed suggesting it might be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan to adjust the pace of asset purchases,...
US dollar heading to 2018 lows from 2021-05-18T20:12:19
Wednesday 19th May 2021
It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight, whilst bonds headed sideways. The main move has been the further decline in the US dollar, falling below 90 on ...
Uncertain markets change direction again from 2021-05-17T20:32:40
Tuesday 18th May 2021
US shares fell sharply today as investors once again weighed up inflation concerns. The only new data to support rising prices was the Empire State Manufacturing Inde...
Inflation, confidence and retail, merely temporary from 2021-05-16T20:42:27
Monday 17th May 2021
Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports. First, retail sales ex-auto fell 0.8 percent in April, secondly consume...
Fewer jobless claims and hopes of a faster recovery from 2021-05-13T20:22:19
Friday 14th May 2021
USA equities came bouncing back today after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers. Topday, investors clearly decided to look beyond any...
The inflation shock we were warned about from 2021-05-12T20:12:16
Thursday 13th May 2021
US CPI numbers came in on the high side today, and markets have reacted swiftly, with equities falling sharply and the bond sell-off pushing Treasury yields up, alth...
Vertigo and Inflation Fears from 2021-05-11T20:24:22
Wednesday 12th May 2021
Equities have taken a tumble again in the US, with the falls broader than just tech stocks. Europe too has seen sharp falls. This risk off mood is being driven by i...
Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits from 2021-05-10T20:16:57
Tuesday 11th May 2021
Inflation expectations continues to influence markets, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explaining why it has such a marked impact on tech stocks. Inflation in supply chains...
Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach from 2021-05-09T20:43:40
Monday 10th May 2021
US non-farm payrolls markedly undershot market expectations on Friday, with just 266 thousand new payrolls, versus the expectation of close to one million. NAB’s Tapas...
Let’s not get carried away from 2021-05-06T20:21:25
Friday 7th May 2021
The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7.25 percent. The recovery is booming, i...
Will the Bank of England taper before the Fed? from 2021-05-05T20:39:44
Thursday 6th May 2021
The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory. There was more evidence of prices being hit...
Yellen’s Rates Call Surprises, RBA ups forecast from 2021-05-04T20:37:26
Wednesday 5th May 2021
Janet Yellen surprised the markets this morning suggesting that it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the economy from overheating. A call to be made...
Demand beating supply. Inflation anyone? from 2021-05-03T20:26:26
Tuesday 4th May 2021
Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic. That fact shone through in today’s US manufacturing ISM, which, whilst still well over 509, at 60.7 it is ...
A bad end to a solid month from 2021-05-02T20:31:49
Monday 3rd May 2021
What data there was on Friday was largely good news, apart from the horrific turn of events in India. In the US, though, reads on consumer sentiment and Chicago’s PMI c...
The price of supply chain disruption from 2021-04-29T20:38:18
Friday 30th April 2021
It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have been strong. Still, equities generally p...
Long ways to go, says Powell from 2021-04-28T20:40:29
Thursday 29th April 2021
Excuse the American pluralisation, but “long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for the American economy, and the reason that ra...
Treading water, but inflation expectations are on the rise again from 2021-04-27T20:47:02
Wednesday 28th April 2021
Markets are treading water ahead of the FDOMC meeting tomorrow morning, but there’s been a sudden rise in bond yields in the US which, NBA’s Rodrigo Catril, sugge...
Reflation reigns for now from 2021-04-26T20:38:23
Tuesday 27th April 2021
Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data, including the PMIs talked about in yesterday’s Morning Call. Data over the l...
Risk on, for how long? from 2021-04-25T20:39:05
Monday 26th April 2021
Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week, with a strong set of PMIs in the US and Europe, which helped push equities still higher in America. ...
ECB avoids taper-talk, Biden’s rumoured tax grab from 2021-04-22T20:27:02
Friday 23rd April 2021
Shares in the US have fallen this morning on news of a sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans. Although not officially released, NAB’s Gavin Friend exp...
Hawkish BoC boosts Canadian dollar from 2021-04-21T20:27:46
Thursday 22nd April 2021
The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year, bringing forward the expected date of rate ris...
Market cautious over speed of recovery from 2021-04-20T20:26:45
Wednesday 21st April 2021
There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now, with US stocks down, with smaller caps hit particularly hard. NAB’s Ray Attrill discusses whether this is all do...
Wall Street pulls back during a quiet session from 2021-04-19T20:41:55
Tuesday 20th April 2021
US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there does seem to be a habit for a selloff whenever equities cli...
Bitcoin stalls, but US economy set to rip from 2021-04-18T20:35:53
Monday 19th April 2021
There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace. Europe has picked up pace and now jabbed 20 percent of its ...
Topsy Turvey Response to a Good News Day from 2021-04-15T20:29:11
Friday 16th April 2021
The news was largely positive overnight. Retail sales in the US were better than expected, initial jobless claims were down, the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing ...
Earnings up, Aussie confidence on a roll, oil shoots higher from 2021-04-14T20:28:01
Thursday 15th April 2021
Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market. In fact, a four percent rise in oil has...
Vaccine slow down and inflation signs from 2021-04-13T20:34:31
Wednesday 14th April 2021
It’s been a session with mixed messages. Inflation is showing up in data, including higher than expected CPI in the US yesterday. We’re seeing it in input prices ...
US CPI today; all jabs are not equal from 2021-04-12T20:36:21
Tuesday 13th April 2021
It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight, with bond auctions garnering a little less interest than last time, and more to come today. We also get CPI numbers for ...
New highs, fast jabs and more inflation brush off from 2021-04-11T20:41:24
Monday 12th April 2021
Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs, ahead of corporate earning this week and despite a rise in bond yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a lot of the opt...
Job confusion, yield consolidation, vaccine concerns from 2021-04-08T20:32:38
Friday 9th April 2021
Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50. N AB’s Tap...
Markets Lacklustre, Unsurprising FOMC minutes from 2021-04-07T20:26:39
Thursday 8th April 2021
It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time. The FOMC said nothing that surprised markets, and Janet Yellen detailing how they would pay for the $2.25 tril...
Consolidating and vaccinating from 2021-04-06T20:12:17
Wednesday 7th April 2021
There were no significant market moves overnight. The US dollar has fallen a little further, bond yields are down and equities have cooled somewhat. NAB’s David de...
US bounce pushes equities to record highs from 2021-04-05T20:17:53
Tuesday 6th April 2021
US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data. The ISM manufacturing read at the end of last week bounced back sharply, and the services number reached ...
Markets Rally Ahead of Biden’s Philly Talk from 2021-03-31T19:48:59
Thursday 1st April 2021
Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobb...
Biden the builder from 2021-03-30T19:23:38
Wednesday 31st March 2021
US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill how much of today’s movement can be att...
Open for business from 2021-03-29T19:43:35
Tuesday 30th March 2021
NAB’s Gavin Friend says, early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyone was talking about. But, as it became ...
Optimism, despite block trades and blocked trade from 2021-03-28T19:12:23
Monday 29th March 2021
There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this week. NAB’s David de Garis says this...
Mixed sentiment sees markets move sideways from 2021-03-25T19:28:09
Friday 26th March 2021
It’s been another mixed session. NAB’s Gavin Friend says, on the one side there’s the tantalising prospect of an economic reopening in the northern hemisphere that i...
A wedged ship, vaccine wrangles add to delay concerns from 2021-03-24T19:43:51
Thursday 25th March 2021
There’s a realisation emerging, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, that even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role outs, the speed of recovery might be slowe...
Oil price spills over COVID recovery concerns from 2021-03-23T19:31:54
Wednesday 24th March 2021
Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower than anticipated. The airline industry ...
US bond yields fall; risk sentiment boosts equities from 2021-03-22T19:42:40
Tuesday 23rd March 2021
There were big rises in US shares overnight, with the NASDAQ rising 1.7% in this session, helped by a moderate fall in Treasury yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says ...
SLR and all that from 2021-03-21T19:33:26
Monday 22nd March 2021
The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see the so-called supplementary-leverage r...
Fed pushes bond yields up, Russia drives oil down from 2021-03-18T19:30:17
Friday 19th March 2021
There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting today, with bond yields rising sharply. Oil has also risen a lot as tensions mount between the US and Russia. Biden refer...
Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing from 2021-03-17T19:28:44
Thursday March 18th 2021
The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout. But Fed Chair Powell says they are still expect...
Slow movement, soft data from 2021-03-16T19:34:03
Wednesday 17th March 2021
There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US. It’s a different story for Australia with ...
Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout from 2021-03-15T19:30:24
Tuesday 16th March 2021
The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of European countries, slowing down the rol...
Yields higher, jabs faster, inflation expectations lower from 2021-03-14T19:47:57
Monday 15th March 2021
Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the inflation b...
ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing from 2021-03-11T19:28:27
Friday 12th March 2021
Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets, says NAB’s David de Garis, on today’s podcast. With stimulus coming down the line, and jobs data showing further ...
Low US inflation, Lowe’s go slow, China borrows to grow from 2021-03-10T19:47:58
Thursday 11th March 2021
The US 10 years notes auction this morning was a little softer than anticipated, but saw yields higher than last time. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says the story of the...
Another big share flip and a boost in Aussie business confidence from 2021-03-09T19:36:16
Wednesday 10th March 2021
Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks. In fact, almost everything is a reversal on yesterday, with the US dollar weak...
Turning away from tech as yields push higher from 2021-03-08T19:45:55
Tuesday 9th March 2021
Us Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries. These higher rates have loosened the appetite for tech stocks in th...
US – strong jobs numbers, $1.9 trillion injection almost there from 2021-03-07T19:45:04
Monday 8th March 2021
The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this will ad...
Powell gives no answers, bond yields climb again from 2021-03-04T19:26:24
Friday 5th March 2021
Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similiar reasons. Jerome Powell failed to reassure markets that the Fed had a plan to cope with ris...
Bond yields are at it again from 2021-03-03T19:38
Thursday 4th March 2021
Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight. This time it’s being driven not just by optimism about the speed of the global recovery, but also by the likelihood t...
Australia’s growth, China’s warning from 2021-03-02T19:36:50
Wednesday 3rd March 2021
All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which NAB’s Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth QoQ, driven by consumer spending. The warn...
RBA buys up ahead of today’s meeting from 2021-03-01T19:31:07
Tuesday 2nd March 2021
The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yields last week. With bond yields stil...
Bond yields switch direction as volatility continues from 2021-02-28T19:42
Monday 1st March 2021
Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether ...
A big bond sell-off. from 2021-02-25T19:36:09
Friday 26th February 2021
Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion. That’s resulting in huge i...
The battle to be king of the doves from 2021-02-24T19:27:14
Thursday 25th February 2021
As the reflation trade continues to push bond prices lower and commodities higher, central bankers are fighting amongst themselves as to who can sound the most ...
Will the RBA play catch up? from 2021-02-23T19:52:32
Wednesday 24th February 2021
Many believe the RBA didn’t go far enough on Monday, buying up a $1 billion of bond purchases in the face of sharply rising bond yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland...
Bond yields go crazy, Aussie dollar hits another multi-year high from 2021-02-22T19:40:46
Tuesday 23rd February 2021
Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the market was clearly disappointed by the R...
Multi-year highs for the Aussie Dollar and Sterling, whilst US yields shoot higher from 2021-02-21T19:31:38
Monday 22nd February 2021
There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says rising commodity prices are the single b...
US equities fall, pound rises ahead of Boris’ escape plan from 2021-02-18T19:45:45
Friday 19th February 2021
There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipation jobless claims, showing its not a smooth recovery for the US. Bond yields on bot...
The US: more shopping, higher producer prices from 2021-02-17T19:32:32
Thursday 18th February 2021
There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January, helped by the arrival of $600 into most people’s bank accounts. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this is a clear...
Treasury yields rise sharply as reflation rolls on from 2021-02-16T19:38:46
Wednesday 17th February 2021
Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell. The biggest movements, though, have been...
US rest day can’t stop reflation from 2021-02-15T19:32:40
Tuesday 16th February 2021
America has been off work for Presidents Day, but that hasn’t stopped markets optimistically looking to a world where COVID-19 isn’t centre stage. The reflation ...
All the ex-President’s men from 2021-02-14T19:38:55
Monday 15th February 2021
There’s absolutely no surprise that Donald Trump has been acquitted in Washington, which means he could stand for office again. It also means a number of Republic...
Powell’s slow road, Biden plays it cool with China from 2021-02-11T19:42:42
Friday 12th February 2021
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours with only slight market moves, with traders absorbing the dovish outlook presented by Jerome Powell at the Economics Club th...
Markets bide their time, with soft US inflation and a Dovish Riksbank from 2021-02-10T19:26:06
Thursday 11th February 2021
Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelations from Jerome Powell as he address...
China’s Credit Surprise Boosts Euro. Here’s why. from 2021-02-09T19:24:46
Wednesday 10th February 2021
The Euro gained on two fronts overnight. First, Super Mario Draghi looks set to run the Italian government, and is likely to announce his cabinet today. Second...
Yellen Denies Great inflation Expectations from 2021-02-08T19:37:34
Tuesday 9th February 2021
Janet Yellen shrugged off concerns about the Biden stimulus package unleashing inflation on the US economy. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discusses on today’s podcast...
Inflation debate over Biden’s stimulus as jobs growth disappoints from 2021-02-07T19:32:53
Monday 8th February 2021
Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US surprised on the downside. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a big downward revision to the December numbers also disappointed...
US and UK blossom, as Euro struggles from 2021-02-04T19:40:34
Friday 5th February 2021
Today’s moves reinforce the emerging story of two destinies. The UK and the US are well ahead of Europe on vaccine rollouts, and that seems to be the major focus o...
New Zealand, first out? Mario’s return. Oil at pandemic high. from 2021-02-03T19:29:40
Thursday 4th February 2021
New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this me...
Philip Lowe set to explain the dovish RBA stance from 2021-02-02T19:23:30
Wednesday 3rd February 2021
All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday. Despite our expectation on yesterday’s podcas...
Moving on from GameStop, back to abnormality from 2021-02-01T19:20:37
Tuesday 2nd February 2021
In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal. Normal today, of course, is a market driven by COV...
Reddit Warriors, Vaccine Nationalism and Morrison’s Budget Repair from 2021-01-31T19:29:44
Monday 1st February 2021
Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the regulators response is to side with the retail investors, ...
Reddit Rebels shut out, US growth slows from 2021-01-28T19:29:20
Friday 29th January 2021
US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms, like Robin Hood, with investors spurred on by chatter on Reddit. T...
Big falls in shares ahead of a dovish Fed from 2021-01-27T19:29:44
Thursday 28th January 2021
The markets have so far been unmoved by the DOFMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little. No move in rates or QE and a reliance on vaccine news before t...
Asian equities hit, US stimulus delayed, Aussie inflation today from 2021-01-26T19:42:23
Wednesday 27th January 2021
The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, markets don’t tend to pay a lot of attent...
Vaccine delays throw dampener on recovery timelines from 2021-01-24T19:29:11
Monday 25th January 2021
Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer than hoped whilst infections are grow...
ECB sticks with bond buying plans and readies for double dip recession from 2021-01-21T19:31:02
Friday 22nd January 2021
The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside. NAB’s Gavin Friend says German bond yields rose as she suggested t...
Inauguration Day Highs from 2021-01-20T19:28:33
Thursday 21st January 2021
Former President Donald Trump often remarked about how his administration saw record highs in US equities. If the President has any control over that, Joe Biden ...
America Goes Gaga as Janet Yellen Acts Big from 2021-01-19T19:15:48
Wednesday 20th January 2021
It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US. Lady Gaga will sing the National Anthem before Biden moves into the Oval O...
Trump’s last day – how much will Biden undo? from 2021-01-18T19:25:23
Tuesday 19th January 2021
Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what with the President do today? Reuters is report...
Is Biden’s Honeymoon Over Already? from 2021-01-17T19:15:44
Monday 18th January 2021
Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out in today’s Morning Call, marke...
Bond yields rise further as Powell puts paid to tapering from 2021-01-14T19:39:57
Friday 15th January 2021
Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purchases this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend say...
Bond yields fall on less taper talk; Biden ready to spend big from 2021-01-13T19:31:49
Thursday 14th January 2021
An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets, with more focus on the words coming from central bankers. NAB’s Tapa...
Treasury appetite is still strong from 2021-01-12T19:28:23
Wednesday 13th January 2020
With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling, ahead of trillions expected in new government debt. On ...
How much stimulus is too much? from 2021-01-11T19:28:46
Tuesday 12th January 2020
Bond yields continue to rise In the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the President-elect. We’ve seen bond yields ...
A Blue Wave into 2021 from 2021-01-10T19:18:08
Monday 11th January 2021
The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off in a very different place. The blue-wave wasn’t written in stone, but with control of the Senate the Demo...
US pays out whilst UK digs in from 2020-12-21T19:14:44
Tuesday 22nd December 2020
You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest regi...
US deal imminent. UK marooned. Brexit all at sea from 2020-12-20T19:29:45
Monday 21st December 2020
There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the news will be good for risk ass...
One minute to midnight on US and UK-EU deals from 2020-12-17T19:25:49
Friday 18th December 2020
The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return. NAB’s Gavin Fri...
Imminent fiscal deal, a narrow path to Brexit and a Fed waiting from 2020-12-16T19:25:37
Thursday 17th December 2020
The US dollar slid overnight as US retail sales figures for November were released. The numbers “were grim” says NAB’s Gavin Friend on today’s Morning Call podc...
Hope springs eternal, on both sides of the Atlantic from 2020-12-15T19:22:07
Wednesday 16th December 2020
Equities have climbed higher in the US and in Europe on the hopes that two deals will be struck this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about the market response...
Vaccine optimism dimmed by new strain from 2020-12-14T19:18:38
Tuesday 15th December 2020
The markets lost some of their mojo today. They kicked off well as the US starts its vaccination program, but the UK health secretary upset the apple cart by ann...
US in Warp Speed whilst UK Dithers from 2020-12-13T19:27:21
Monday 14th December 2020
The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the aim is to have given the jab to 75% of the population by June. Even so, m...
UK-EU no deal looms, Aussie breaks 75 cents, ECB to buy more bonds from 2020-12-10T19:35:16
Friday 11th December 2020
Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there. NAB’s Gavin Friend says a no-deal could ...
A Big Day For Europe from 2020-12-09T19:31:12
Thursday 10th December 2020
As we recorded this morning’s podcast Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson were meeting over dinner to discuss the progress of the UK-EU trade deal. NAB’s Rod...
UK trade talks to get an injection, but the prognosis is not good from 2020-12-08T19:33:14
Wednesday 9th December 2020
The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiators who remain a long way from reachin...
UK & EU leaders to hold last ditch meeting, pound is choppy from 2020-12-07T19:34:25
Tuesday 8th December 2020
The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back. On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the...
60 percent chance of a UK-EU trade deal from 2020-12-06T19:12:36
Monday 7th December 2020
US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the logic is that the disappointing ...
One deal down, two to go from 2020-12-03T19:35:31
Friday 4th December 2020
OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a cliff. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says th...
More US stimulus talk, less Brexit hope and Brits ready for the jab from 2020-12-02T19:30:35
Thursday 3rd December 2020
The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine and will start jabbing people with it next week. That’s kept Brexit off the front pages in the...
China’s PMI high, Australia's GDP bounce, the Brexit tunnel, OPEC delays and a US stimulus deal from 2020-12-01T19:32:22
Wednesday 2nd December 2020
There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's down to a n...
Gone Fishing from 2020-11-29T19:23:58
Monday 30th November 2020
The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel. Over the weekend, though, r...
Astra Zeneca re-run, Lane’s credit concerns from 2020-11-26T19:20:29
Friday 27th November 2020
There are some questions over the numbers provided in phase three of the Astra Zeneca vaccine trial. NAB’s David de Garis says the concern is over the age of part...
Not much to be thankful for from 2020-11-25T19:17:16
Thursday 26th November 2020
It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays. Vaccine hopes have been pushed aside after Wednesday’s post first-wave h...
Trump relents, oil climbs and Dow hits new high from 2020-11-24T19:18:13
Wednesday 25th November 2020
President Trump made an appearance before cameras today to boast about the rise in equities, with the Dow breaking 3,0000 for the first time. NAB’s Rodrigo Cat...
More positive vaccine news, but equities are cautious from 2020-11-23T19:21:32
Tuesday 24th November 2020
Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce and easier to distribute. Yet the marke...
Revised Aussie Growth Forecast and a Fed-Treasury Spat from 2020-11-22T19:33:59
Monday 23rd November 2020
NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through it, plus Josh Fryenberg’s plans to boost invest from la...
Lockdown jitters from 2020-11-19T19:36:02
Friday 20th November 2020
Schools out for winter in New York as COVID cases in the US continue to rise, with the country passing a quarter of a million deaths from the virus. Phil Dobbie t...
Lockdowns and infections overshadow further positive vaccine news from 2020-11-18T19:21:07
Thursday 19th November 2020
Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news. On the positive side, Pfizer is set to apply for emergency authorisation for its COVID-19 va...
Markets take a breather, but standby for more vaccine news from 2020-11-17T19:32:20
Wednesday 18th November 2020
There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a move to government bonds. But NAB’s Tapa...
And another one from 2020-11-16T19:34:04
Tuesday 17th November 2020
Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiveness. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says market...
Vaccine vs infections– the only news that seems to matter from 2020-11-15T19:18:30
Monday 16th November 2020
Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting of focus on equity markets. That said,...
Markets realise there’s tumult before a vaccine from 2020-11-12T19:34:15
Friday 13th November 2020
This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bond prices rising. NAB’s Gavin Friend say...
Vaccine rally continues, but central banks are more guarded from 2020-11-11T19:30:38
Thursday 12th November 2020
Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more cautious tone. NAB’s David de Garis sa...
Tech hit by vaccine and antitrust moves. RBNZ today, less dovish perhaps? from 2020-11-10T19:20:07
Wednesday 11th November 2020
Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoing impacts from COVID-19, with structu...
Markets Injected with Vaccine Furore from 2020-11-09T19:21:37
Tuesday 10th November 2020
The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’re it with the (potentially bigger) n...
A blue wave is still possible, but two months of ‘no’ from 2020-11-08T19:35:49
Monday 9th November 2020
There’s still a chance that in January the Democrats will take control of the Senate. Until then, President Trump is still in charge and the US faces rising COVID ...
Biden likely to win. Fed on hold. Fiscal stimulus desperately needed. from 2020-11-05T19:32:35
Friday 6th November 2020
Depending on which news source you choose, Biden has either 253 or 264 electoral college votes. We’re likely to find out today, but Donald Trump’s legal challenges...
Divided They Stand from 2020-11-04T19:33:40
Thursday 5th November 2020
US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election. It seems likely Biden will win, with five key states still unde...
Lowe goes heavy, US stocks run hot on Biden hope from 2020-11-03T19:31:49
Wednesday 4th November 2020
The RBA announced cuts to interest rates and a step up in bond buying yesterday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, as other banks follow, there won’t be any influenc...
Markets turn green on hope of a blue victory from 2020-11-02T19:22:40
Tuesday 3rd November 2020
Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Biden victory. NAB’s Ray Attrill also poi...
Prepare for a bumpy start to November from 2020-11-01T19:24:56
Monday 2nd November 2020
After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and Bank of England all meeting, with the ...
US GDP bounces back, and so do equities, for now from 2020-10-29T19:18:39
Friday 30th October 2020
Markets turned around again, with equities rising sharply. How much of it is the anticipation of Q3 tech company earnings results after the US close, how much of i...
Markets hit hard on concerns over COVID and the election aftermath from 2020-10-28T19:25:11
Thursday 29th October 2020
US equities have been hit hard today, the third day of losses, with the US dollar rising. NAB’s David de Garis said the markets hit the decks running as they ope...
Is the Biden Trump gap closing? from 2020-10-27T19:35:52
Wednesday 28th October 2020
There’s a risk that next week’s US election is more contestable than we might have considered a week ago. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says late surge polling could f...
COVID worries get classic risk-off treatment from 2020-10-26T19:38:10
Tuesday 27th October 2020
Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven currency of choice. The reasons are clea...
Markets running scared at start of Halloween week from 2020-10-25T19:23:51
Monday 26th October 2020
Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down. Normally, if the sentiment is risk off and equities are down, you’d see the...
Trump’s Last Stand; PMI’s Galore Today from 2020-10-22T19:26:55
Friday 23rd October 2020
In a few hours Joe Biden and Donald Trump go head to head in the last election debate. NAB's Gavin Friend says equities have picked up some momentum later in the s...
Look Who’s Talking (x2) from 2020-10-21T19:19:30
Monday 22nd October 2020
Talks are back on. Safter setting a deadline of Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi is continuing talks with the Republicans with a view to getting a stimulus package agreed for...
Still wishing and hoping on stimulus deal from 2020-10-20T19:40:07
Wednesday 21st October 2020
Equities are higher in the US again today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it is largely on the back of continued hope that a stimulus deal will be struck. If not n...
Deal or No Deal, transatlantic edition from 2020-10-19T19:33:20
Tuesday 20th October 2020
Markets are waiting to see the outcome of two on again off again decisions, both with sizeable economic consequences. Boris Johnson declared that Brexit talks wer...
A calm Friday, but it could be a volatile week from 2020-10-18T19:18:29
Monday 19th October 2020
After a fairly volatile week markets were calmer on Friday on the back of positive retail numbers from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says Republicans could use it a...
Risk off mood as virus cases rise, Lowe’s dovishness hits bond yields from 2020-10-15T19:28:33
Friday 16th October 2020
There’s a strong risk off mood in the air, which has pushed the US dollar higher and hit stocks. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether markets are now accept...
Trump talks it up. Will Lowe talk it down? from 2020-10-14T19:30:58
Thursday 15th October 2020
Philip Lowe, the Governor of the RBA, is talking this morning. NAB’s David de Garis tells us what to expect in terms of signalling for future stimulus measures. ...
The Aussie Coal Ban and Earnings Caution from 2020-10-13T19:23:29
Wednesday 14th October 2020
The Aussie dollar has taken a hit twice in the last twenty-four hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the first hit came on reports that China was to stop importing ...
Barrett Trumps Stimulus on Columbus Day from 2020-10-12T19:19:06
Tuesday 13th October 2020
The US senate is seemingly preoccupied with pushing through Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court nominee, casting aside any bandwidth for fiscal stimulus talks. Yet...
US dollar sinks along with Trumps hopes from 2020-10-11T19:30:31
Monday 12th October 2020
The US dollar hit a two and a half year low on Friday, whilst the Chinese Yuan showed big gains. NAB’s Tapas Strickland said the dollar fell on expectations of a B...
Markets cling on to stimulus hopes, but maybe after a Biden victory from 2020-10-08T19:14:13
Friday 9th October 2020
Donald Trump continues to talk about a stimulus deal, even though he said it had been shelved. But NAB’s David de Garis reckons its highly unlikely anything will be...
Markets bounce back on piecemeal stimulus hopes from 2020-10-07T19:27:05
Thursday 8th October 2020
There’s been a market rebound on the hope that some sort of stimulus deal in the US is still possible before the election, but will it really happen? Phil Dobbie ...
Markets take a hit as Trump ditches stimulus talks from 2020-10-06T19:38:53
Wednesday 7th October 2020
There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about a fiscal stimulus, even though he tweeted...
Don’t be Afraid of COVID from 2020-10-05T19:31:02
Tuesday 6th October 2020
As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of the Heroes Act, adding more stimulus to ...
One big October surprise from 2020-10-04T19:22:56
Monday 5th October 2020
Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems he could be returning to the White H...
Fiscal stalemate and long tunnel vision from 2020-10-01T20:21:47
Friday 2nd October 2020
Equities in the US rose overnight despite a stalemate on the fiscal stimulus package. Optimists insist there is some hope that a deal will be reached but, as NAB’s ...
Strong US data with no room for chicken lickens from 2020-09-30T20:26:48
Thursday 1st October 2020
No sell off in equities after that yelling match that was apparently a presidential election debate. In fact, equities have been helped by some strong data from t...
No more heroes anymore from 2020-09-29T20:20:29
Wednesday 30th September 2020
Despite a big jump in confidence in the Conference Board numbers for the US, there’s not much optimism in the markets today. NAB’s David de Garis says, as th...
Taxing issues don’t hold back risk sentiment from 2020-09-28T20:31:49
Tuesday 29th September 2020
US and European equities rose sharply, with rising confidence seeing a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the Aussie. The reports that the US President has pai...
Courting support ahead of election debates from 2020-09-27T20:14:08
Monday 28th September 2020
COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave. Yet, whilst there’s very little in the way of new data...
Are bailouts bygones? from 2020-09-24T20:35:41
Friday 25th September 2020
Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality...
Aussie dollar dips lower as risk sentiment rises from 2020-09-23T20:12:31
Thursday 24th September 2020
NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as global risk sentiment rises, it is ra...
Powell asks for support, Debelle hints at easing, NAB revises rates forecasts from 2020-09-22T20:38:49
Wednesday 23rd September 2020
In the US Jerome Powell spelt out very clearly in his testimony before Congress that more fiscal stimulus was needed and had been assumed by many board member...
Equities fall, bond yields weaken, virus concerns rise from 2020-09-21T20:33:27
Tuesday 22nd September 2020
Concerns over the impact if a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to government bonds and safe-haven currencies. N...
Now, a word from your central bank from 2020-09-20T20:24:03
Monday 21st September 2020
As COVID-19 cases rise in many parts of the world, and more restrictive measures likely in the UK and Europe, there’s the question of what more central banks can...
Equites fall again, BoE talks negative rates from 2020-09-17T20:37:10
Friday 18th September 2020
It’s been a topsy turvy session overnight, that’s seen equities slide even though a day ago the FOMC was signalling years of near zero interest rates. NAB’s Gavi...
Fed says three years near zero from 2020-09-16T20:13:25
Thursday 17th September 2020
US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting. So, what are the implications of three, perhaps four years, of near ...
China shops, RBA waits, FOMC meets from 2020-09-15T20:27:28
Wednesday 16th September 2020
Equities are on the rise again in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it has been driven by a flurry of M&A activity, alongside vaccine hopes and reasonable activ...
Pfizer vaccine by year end and more easing by the RBA? from 2020-09-14T20:14:08
Tuesday 15th September 2020
Shares climbed in the US today on the hope that Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year. It’s a promise made by their CEO at the weekend and tou...
Six months on, a still uncertain future from 2020-09-13T20:48:20
Monday 14th September 2020
It’s just over six months since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and we’re all still unsure about how it will all end. NAB’s Tapas Strickland said we can expec...
Pound pummelled as UK EU relationship turns sour from 2020-09-10T20:21:21
Friday 11th September 2020
The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement. NAB’s Gavin Friend say...
Equities bounce back ahead of ECB meeting from 2020-09-09T20:27:06
Thursday 10th September 2020
There’s been a rebound in risk sentiment which NAB’s Tapas Strickland has been driven by a buy-the-dip mentality, with opinions still divided as to whether tec...
US equities hit again, Boris and Donald play tough guys from 2020-09-08T20:24:22
Wednesday 9th September 2020
US equities have had a third session with substantial falls. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the damage is largely confined to the tech sector but there is evidence th...
Brexit Brinkmanship and the Melbourne effect from 2020-09-07T20:27
Tuesday 8th September 2020
A drop in the pound was the only significant market move today, driven by threats from Boris Johnson to walk away in mid-October if he doesn’t get the Brexit dea...
US jobs coming back, but harder from here from 2020-09-06T20:13:27
Monday 7th September 2020
US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day. It also saw Treasury yields rise sharply, steepening...
Sobering up; equities hit, Aussie dollar slides ahead of a slow recovery from 2020-09-03T20:24:22
Friday 4th September 2020
There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks. NAB’s David de Garis says thin trading in summer can always create sharper moves, but ther...
A slower recovery than hoped for? Yet equities still rise. from 2020-09-02T20:20:23
Thursday 3rd September 2020
The US dollar managed a slight recovery in the overnight session, which has also seen continued growth in US equities, echoed across the Atlantic. On today’s po...
Europe’s prices drop, US shares rise, Aussie GDP today from 2020-09-01T20:23:21
Wednesday 2nd September 2020
Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise, just as the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy seems likeold news, but NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how the markets ar...
Aussie dollar flying high, US equities stall from 2020-08-31T20:18:43
Tuesday 1st September 2020
The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session, with the US dollar declining further. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whethe...
US dollar falls as Fed’s policy sinks in from 2020-08-30T20:06:17
Monday 31st August 2020
NAB’s Ray Attrill says the US dollar bore the brunt of Friday’s reflective thinking on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. He says, if the market believes the Fed ...
Powell’s average address from 2020-08-27T20:21:25
Friday 28th August 2020
Jerome Powell used his virtual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium to announcer the Fed’s strategy of targeting an ‘average’ 2% inflation rate, a subtle change th...
High winds, high hopes and higher equities from 2020-08-26T20:27:12
Thursday 27th August 2020
There’s continued optimism in the markets, with equities reaching new highs again, helped on by better than expected durable goods orders in the US, and despite r...
Choppy waters, with a flash of hope for Germany from 2020-08-25T20:28:53
Wednesday 26th August 2020
The US dollar is down again this morning, with equities up and touching new highs again. More significantly, we’ve seen sizeable increase in government bond yiel...
Looking on the bright side of life from 2020-08-24T20:26:20
Tuesday 25th August 2020
US equities reached new highs again, with big gains also in Europe. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says investors are back to reacting to the vaccine hopes, with President T...
Europe slows down, Trump’s vaccine plans speed up from 2020-08-23T20:23:35
Monday 24th August 2020
Europe’s PMI’s disappointed markets on Friday, whereas the US numbers were better than expected, helping to lift equities to new highs (again). The UK provided mixe...
Equity highs, then PMIs from 2020-08-20T20:36:41
Friday 21st August 2020
US equities continue to rise, even though the jobless claims numbers rose last week. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend, at what point will they appear to be overv...
FOMC minutes fail to map out direction from 2020-08-19T20:24:02
Thursday 20th August 2020
There’s no doubt about it, there was disappointment from investors after the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released. There was hope that there would be ...
Stocking up and moving up from 2020-08-18T20:30:48
Wednesday 19th August 2020
US stocks continue to rise to record highs, helped today by strong housing starts and building permits. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s t...
Aussie flies higher, US equities higher still from 2020-08-17T20:44:04
Tuesday 18th August 2020
The US dollar continues to fall, pushing the Aussie dollar higher this morning. The dovish tone set by the RBNZ – plus a delayed election – means the NZ dollar has...
Longer lockdowns, no trade talks, Democrats swing into action from 2020-08-16T20:34:11
Monday 17th August 2020
Lockdowns have been extended in Victoria and Auckland, even as COVID-19 cases ease. But, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, says hotspots around the world are becoming a bigger ...
Jobs, stimulus and bond yields from 2020-08-13T20:35:32
Friday 14th August 2020
Jobs data is confusing right now. How much is it influenced by government stimulus activity? Well, not much in the US right now because an agreement still hasn’t be...
US equities head for highs as UK economy crumbles and Aussie wages slow from 2020-08-12T20:14:56
Thursday 13th August 2020
US equities continue to race upwards, at or near record highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill attributes it to same reasons we’ve heard a lot lately – easing infection rates, ...
Russian roulette from 2020-08-11T20:31:34
Wednesday 12th August 2020
Markets in Europe seem to have been encouraged by the news that Russia is to start vaccinated key workers in the next few weeks, although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catri...
No kick from JOLTs from 2020-08-10T20:16:50
Tuesday 11th August 2020
Markets haven’t moved much overnight, mainly because there’s not been much in the way of data or geopolitics to offer any direction. The latest JOLTs (job openings...
Get set for Tik Tok Tit-for-Tat from 2020-08-09T20:20:26
Monday 10th August 2020
President Trump has been busy signing executive orders. First, late Thursday I the AUS, he signed one banning USD companies from dealing with Tik Tok and WeChat. It...
Trump says he’ll go it alone on stimulus from 2020-08-06T20:38:31
Friday 7th August 2020
Equities are rising in the US, again. This time it’s a mix of positive data – including weekly jobless claims, which are down a little on the week before – and furth...
Is Gold Indestructible? from 2020-08-05T20:35:13
Thursday 6th August 2020
Gold has broken the $2,000/ounce mark, so is it making a run for it? That’s a question Phil Dobie puts to NAB’s David de Garis in this morning’s Morning Call podca...
Gold's new high, bond yields head lower, as US Congress goes nowhere from 2020-08-04T20:47:31
Wednesday 5th August 2020
Treasury bond yields are reaching new lows, which has heightened the appetite for gold, with Comex finally remaining above the $2,000/ounce mark. NAB’s Tapas Stri...
Manufacturing climbs; time out for Tik Tok from 2020-08-03T20:13:50
Tuesday 4th August 2020
There was a lot of optimism in the markets overnight, driven by strong manufacturing numbers in the US and Europe, the slow down in new COVID-19 cases in America, t...
Lockdowns abound, still no fiscal deal in US from 2020-08-02T20:28:35
Monday 3rd August 2020
The Australian economy will take a hit from the stage four lockdown in Melbourne, but its not alone. Lockdowns continue in Europe, including Manchester in England’s ...
The big US slowdown, Trump talks election delays from 2020-07-30T20:34:44
Friday 31st July 2020
The US dollar continued to slide, with a fall in shares and US Treasury yields, as GDP numbers showed the extent of the shock to the US economy in Q2. Shortly afterwa...
Powell’s “tough situation”, yet equities push higher again from 2020-07-29T20:18:47
Thursday 30th July 2020
“We’re in a tough situation” – that was the response from Jerome Powell to one question during the FOMC press conference this morning. Without offering anything new...
Confidence slides, shares fall, as US heads for fiscal cliff from 2020-07-28T20:33:25
Wednesday 29th July 2020
The US is no nearer reaching agreement on their fiscal stimulus package. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its highly likely that some of it will be addressed before rec...
Gold bubbles higher whilst mighty dollar falls further from 2020-07-27T20:06:35
Tuesday 28th July 2020
Gold has reached a record high, whilst the US dollar continues to slide. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it partially reflects the expectation that the Fed will reinforce its...
Will Congress keep the money rolling-in? from 2020-07-26T20:34:25
Monday 27th July 2020
The US dollar lost a lot of ground last week as Congress argued over the shape and form of the next recovery package. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says hopefully there will b...
Markets tumble, optimism turns to Europe from 2020-07-23T20:30:41
Friday 24th July 2020
It’s been a classic risk-off session so far, with the US and Aussie dollar losing ground, more interest in the Yen, US shares and oil prices plunging, with government...
The race to splash the cash from 2020-07-22T20:13:16
Thursday 23rd July 2020
Europe’s done it, Australia’s done it. Now it’s the US’s turn to extend their fiscal support, and the deadline is looming. NAB’s David de Garis talks about the like...
Suddenly, Europe shines brighter from 2020-07-21T20:40:32
Wednesday 22nd July 2020
The Aussie dollar rose over 1.7 percent in this session. It's been helped by the gain in the Euro, after leaders there reached an agreement on a Europea Rescue Pla...
Extending JobKeeper as vaccine hope draws nearer from 2020-07-20T20:36:37
Tuesday 21st July 2020
Scott Morrison Scott Morrison will unveil changes to the JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs today – although Josh Frydenberg has already spilled the beans in today’s ...
A recovery plan in need of a rescue from 2020-07-19T20:25:03
Monday 20th July 2020
After three days arguing over the size and shape of their European Recovery Plan, EU leaders failed to reach an agreement. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland wha...
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and a European Recovery Plan from 2020-07-16T20:14:43
Friday 17th July 2020
There have been a lot of employment numbers out over the last 24 hours – for the US, the UK and Australia. NAB’s Gavin Friend reiterates that government job support p...
Finding the shape of the new abnormal from 2020-07-15T20:29:22
Thursday 16th July 2020
Just how long will the impact of COVID-19 drag on for. Shares are up today on more hopes that a vaccine will be found soon, but NAB’s David de Garis points to comme...
European plan hopes help the Euro from 2020-07-14T20:37:05
Wednesday 15th July 2020
The US dollar fell again today, driven by a rise in the Euro. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the Euro’s rise is based on hopes that European leaders will reach a cons...
Shares rise on vaccine hopes, then fall on China tensions from 2020-07-13T20:32:16
Tuesday 14th July 2020
Equities in the US spent most of the session rising, driven by the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s experimental vaccine was being fast tracked in the US. But then, a...
China news and virus news, good and bad from 2020-07-12T20:24:59
Monday 13th July 2020
Markets opted to take the positive news on Friday, sending shares higher and the US dollar lower. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, the good news was results of Remdesiv...
Confidence versus COVID – the battle continues from 2020-07-09T20:40:22
Friday 10th July 2020
It was a choppy session overnight, with markets split between the confidence that things might be getting better versus the realisation that in the US southern states...
UK Government Goes Dutch On Lunch from 2020-07-08T20:35:19
Thursday 9th July 2020
The pound was helped a little today by the Chancellor’s next step in the country’s stimulus package. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the plan, which ...
Wait and see from 2020-07-07T20:44:28
Wednesday 8th July 2020
There isn’t an immense amount of confidence about how quickly economies will recover. The Fed’s Raphael Bostic raised concerns about the impact of the rising infect...
Look out for the cloud in the silver lining from 2020-07-06T20:48:57
Tuesday 7th July 2020
Ray Attrill turns a proverb inside out in this morning’s podcast. Everyone is seeing the silver lining, but clouds could be forming. The markets are in buoyant mood r...
Split between the economy, the virus and China from 2020-07-05T20:32:09
Monday 6th July 2020
Which way will the markets be pulled this week? Economic data is proving to be generally positive, helping create a risk-on bias. Yet COVID-19 cases continue to rise i...
Roaring back, a bit from 2020-07-02T20:36:40
Friday 3rd July 2020
US stocks rose higher still overnight, helped on by the latest non-farm payroll numbers. NAB’s David de Garis says there was such a wide range of estimates for the job...
A vaccine for COVID, lifeboats for Hong Kong? from 2020-07-01T20:29:32
Thursday 2nd June 2020
The overnight session started on a sour note over increasing concerns about Hong Kong. As NAB’;s Gavin Friend describes, the number of arrests under the new security...
China passes security law, US virus ‘out of control’, yet equities still rise from 2020-06-30T20:33:48
Wednesday 1st July 2020
China has passed the new security law for Hong Kong, with the US already responding by targeting Huawei and ZTE. Dr Fauci has declared the virus as ‘out of control’...
Taking stock on a no-bad news day from 2020-06-29T20:13:37
Tuesday 30th June 2020
There’s a little positive sentiment pushing shares higher again today and helping the US dollar gain on the Yen and Swiss Franc. Why the optimism? Because there wasn...
Virus numbers cause concern; jobs and Hong Kong focus for the week ahead from 2020-06-28T20:43:50
Monday 29th June 2020
Rising infection rates in US southern states hit equities hard on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the expectation was that the economy would bounce back as consum...
Rising Corona, Easing Volcker from 2020-06-25T20:24:49
Friday 26th June 2020
Despite growing concerns about the rise in COVID-19 cases in the southern states of the US, equities rose today. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how the easing of banks’ ...
More COVID-19 woes, forecast downgrades and oil concerns from 2020-06-24T20:11:08
Thursday 25th June 2020
Markets have been hit with a triple whammy – disturbing COVID-19 numbers emerging from the United States, a worse than expected downgrade to growth forecasts from t...
PMIs boosts sentiment; NASDAQ hits new high from 2020-06-23T20:29:50
Wednesday 24th June 2020
There’s a lot of positive sentiment again today, with US equities on the up and the NASDAQ reaching a new high. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about y...
PMIs to help show shape of the recovery from 2020-06-22T20:15:31
Tuesday 23rd June 2020
In a day that’s been light on news, markets have had a chance to take a more positive outlook, pushing equities higher and the US dollar lower. That’s helped the Aus...
Markets torn between economic data and virus stats from 2020-06-21T20:23:29
Monday 22nd June 2020
Last week was a choppy week as markets tried to balance out positive economic news against rising concerns about COVID-19 infections, particularly in the southern sta...
Back to work, but clearly not for everyone from 2020-06-18T20:26:41
Friday 19th June 2020
Markets continue to be jittery, with news of reopenings offset by concern about rising infection rates. Then there’s the jobs numbers. Last week 1.5 million more jobl...
How many jobs will go? from 2020-06-17T20:15:27
Thursday 18th June 2020
Australia’s latest unemployment numbers are out this morning and the rate is expected to rise. But NAB’s David de Garis says we won’t have a real handle on unemploy...
US retail bounce, UK’s life saver, Trump’s next trillion from 2020-06-16T20:30:41
Wednesday 17th June 2020
Market sentiment is higher again this morning from a surprise rebound in US retail sales, coupled with talk of a $1 trillion infrastructure program from the Trump ...
China’s slow rebound, Fed goes further from 2020-06-15T20:17:11
Tuesday 16th June 2020
Globally equities have been dampened by fears of a second wave of COVID-19 and the attest activity data from China, which showed a slower than expected recovery. So ...
The impact of lockdown easing is the crucial question from 2020-06-14T20:21:39
Monday 15th June 2020
The market lost a chunk of optimism last week. Jerome Powell’s pessimistic outlook didn’t help and probably destroyed hopes for those still set on a V-shaped recovery...
Reality check as investors run for cover from 2020-06-11T20:22:20
Friday 12th June 2020
There’s been a swift move to bonds and safe haven currencies since the Fed’s message yesterday that it would take a couple of years at least for life to return to nor...
Fed not pulling back till 2022 from 2020-06-10T20:20:57
Thursday 11th June 2020
The US Fed has reiterated that they will do whatever it takes to protect the US economy, with inflation expected to remain below 2 percent through to 2022. Chair Je...
Easing off the peddle, Aussie takes a hit from 2020-06-09T20:42:13
Wednesday 10th June 2020
The rally in equities has stalled for now – except for the NASDAQ. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapass Strickland whether caution is growing or just a bit of short-term ...
Is America bouncing back sooner than expected? from 2020-06-08T20:36:09
Tuesday 9th June 2020
Equity markets continue to rise and the US dollar continues to weaken with increasing risk-on sentiment, helped along by the surprising rise in jobs in the US in Frid...
ECB extends it shopping spree from 2020-06-04T20:36:44
Friday 5th June 2020
The ECB announced that it will extend its bond buying program by a further €600b, with forecasts not expecting inflation to pick up for the next few years. NAB’s David...
The recession we only just had to have from 2020-06-03T20:18:04
Thursday 4th June 2020
Australia has entered a recession but, as Josh Frydenberg was quick to point out yesterday, the Q1 fall in GDP was miniscule compared to most of the rest of the worl...
Aussie rises further. What could possibly go wrong? from 2020-06-02T20:28:19
Wednesday 3rd June 2020
Equities continue to rise on hopes of a global rebound as COVID-19 infections start to lessen, ignoring the riot sin the US, Hong Kong unrest and Donald Trump’s res...
The rise and rise of the Aussie dollar from 2020-06-01T20:17:16
Tuesday 2nd June 2020
The Australian dollar has climbed even higher this morning, reaching 68 US cents. NAB’s Ray Attrill discusses the factors that have come together to boost the currenc...
Less Shock, More Ore from 2020-05-31T20:46
Monday 1st June 2020
President Trump has announced that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous and threatened to remove benefits and impose tariffs on the former British colony. But is it all w...
Optimism knocked back by Trump announcement from 2020-05-28T20:29:35
Friday 29th May 2020
US equities continued to rally today as investors looked for signs that the economy would be getting back on track. But then, just to show how fickle trade is right no...
A New Generation EU and China goes cold on Aussie coal from 2020-05-27T20:23:22
Thursday 28th May 2020
The Australian dollar lost ground today as China threatened to ban imports of Australian coal. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether it’s in-part because the...
Markets catch reopening fever from 2020-05-26T20:56:37
Wednesday 27th May 2020
There’s a strong risk-on mood in the markets this morning, with the Aussie and Kiwi dollar showing significant rises against a falling US dollar. Phil Dobbie asks w...
Equities rebound despite the new cold war from 2020-05-25T20:26:51
Tuesday 26th May 2020
Equities have staged a broad based rebound today and are expected to continue later today as markets reopen in the US and UK. Oil continues to rise too, as demand inc...
Hong Kong Returns to Pre-COVID Protests from 2020-05-24T20:17:07
Monday 25th May 2020
The unrest in Hong Kong with residents ignoring social-distancing to take to the streets to protest against China’s new national security laws. NAB’s Ray Attrill says ...
Equities hit by China’s clashes with Trump and Hong Kong from 2020-05-21T20:09:03
Friday 22nd May 2020
Market sentiment was tempered somewhat overnight by rising rhetoric between the US and China. NAB’s David de Garis says we can expect more of this as the gap in the Pr...
Markets accentuate the positive, but BoE now contemplating the negative from 2020-05-20T20:24:20
Thursday 21st May 2020
It’s been another positive session, driving equities higher and giving another boost to the Australian dollar. NAB’s David de Garis says the Aussie’s rise is despite...
Taking a deep breath from 2020-05-19T20:29:56
Wednesday 20th May 2020
Markets have controlled their excitement after yesterday’s burst of optimism over a potential COVID-129 vaccine. As NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, equities have none...
Markets go vaccine crazy from 2020-05-18T20:23:13
Tuesday 19th May 2020
There’s been big increases in equity markets and bond yields on the news of a successful stage one vaccine trial in the US. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fact that ...
Back to work and back to the trade war from 2020-05-17T20:38:13
Monday 18th May 2020
The US President has said the US needs to get back to work, vaccine or not. He’s also announced the blocking of microchip supplies to Huawei, with threats of retaliati...
Job woes, Trump tensions and China’s rebound from 2020-05-14T20:22:32
Friday 15th May 2020
The US and Australia have both reported dour job numbers, although markets were braced to expect it. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the calls for more...
Powell’s negative tone talks down markets. RBNZ talks negative rates. from 2020-05-13T20:15:28
Thursday 14th May 2020
The Fed’s Governor Jerome Powell took a very sombre tone about the response to the COVI-19 crisis, highlighting the need for more fiscal stimulus, whilst denouncing ...
Markets worried over longer lockdowns from 2020-05-12T20:27:35
Wednesday 13th May 2020
There’s been a swift reversal in sentiment overnight, with White House COVID-19 Task Force advisor Anthony Fauci suggesting an early lockdown will increase infectio...
Aussie dollar falls despite contiunued recovery hopes from 2020-05-11T20:24:52
Tuesday 12th May 2020
When we’ve had positive risk sentiment in the past we’ve tended to see a stronger Aussie dollar, but that’s not the case today. NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests the steeper...
Markets ignore 20.5 million US job losses. Hope springs eternal. from 2020-05-10T20:38:05
Monday 11th May 2020
The non-farm payrolls data on Friday showed 20.5 million new job losses in one month in the US and yet equities rose. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains how investors are...
Fed fund futures turn negative, BoE talks UK back to 1706 from 2020-05-07T20:16:09
Friday 8th May 2020
Future contracts for Fed funds turned negative overnight for the first time. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains what’s happening. Is the Fed expected to move to negative inter...
Lifting lockdowns but the debt remains from 2020-05-06T20:22:26
Thursday 7th May 2020
Two questions remain over the COVID-19 crisis: when is it safe to lift lockdowns, and what will the debt-impact be on the economy? Bond yields rose in the US today as...
Germany’s judges challenge the ECB from 2020-05-05T20:29:02
Wednesday 6th May 2020
The Euro and Italian bonds took a hit overnight with German judges challenging the ECB on its QE activity. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it won’t interrupt the bank’s ...
Airlines take a beating, German judges to rule on QE from 2020-05-04T20:38:30
Tuesday 5th May 2020
US equities have managed to clamber out of negative territory this morning but, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, airline stocks have taken a heavy h...
Bad start to a rocky month from 2020-05-03T20:25:50
Monday 4th May 2020
May got off to a bad start on Friday with falls in equities and the Aussie dollar the worst currency on the day. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it signals the start of a more m...
Month end, less growth, fewer jobs, more loans from 2020-04-30T20:34:01
Friday 1st May 2020
Month-end has seen a broad sell-off of the US dollar says NAB’s Gavin Friend in today’s podcast. We’ve also seen equities hit, in part because of more bad indicators, i...
Fed warns of considerable medium-term risk, hints for more fiscal support from 2020-04-29T20:13:48
Thursday 30th April 2020
The Fed unanimously kept interest rates on hold at near zero levels, whilst warning that the economic risk in the medium term was unprecedented. David de Garis dis...
Aussie dollar pushing ahead from 2020-04-28T20:28:26
Wednesday 29th April 2020
The Aussie dollar has been steadily rising, now around 65 US cents. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether it’ll last, or even push higher. They also discuss ...
Markets dreaming of post lockdown utopia from 2020-04-27T20:47:42
Tuesday 28th April 2020
Again, it seems markets are ignoring the bad data, of which there’s plenty, and optimistically looking to businesses returning to normal. The continued, unprecedent...
Markets not entirely convinced on the V from 2020-04-26T20:28:23
Monday 27th April 2020
US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin spoke of the US economy re-opening in May and June, with a rapid recovery in the few months that follow. But, NAB’s Rodrigo Catri...
Bad news abounds, but markets are positive from 2020-04-23T20:15:56
Friday 24th April 2020
In today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis, ‘what’s going on?’ US unemployment registrations have added another 4.4 million, European PMIs hit record l...
Shares rise, oil calmer and EU prepares next steps from 2020-04-22T20:35:02
Thursday 23rd April 2020
Oil prices have calmed down a little and equities have risen again, but not much has changed. Oil inventories in the US continue to rise, Steve Mnuchin has said it...
Oil rout spills over and sours risk sentiment from 2020-04-21T20:41:48
Wednesday 22nd April 2020
Oil rout spills over and sours risk sentiment across the board. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the impact on the markets and the economic outloo...
Oil Prices Fall Heavily Into Negative Territory from 2020-04-20T20:36:13
Tuesday 21st April 2020
Yesterday on the Morning Call we raised the prospect of oil prices lurching into negative territory. This morning, that’s exactly what has happened for WTI, with a ...
Signs of a China bounce-back adds to optimism from 2020-04-19T20:46:32
Monday 20th April 2020
Friday’s industrial production numbers from China on Friday gave investors hope that a swift economic recovery is possible globally once lockdown measures are eased....
More jobless; lockdowns for longer from 2020-04-16T20:32:13
Friday 17th April 2020
Many countries have announced extensions to their lockdowns over the last 24 hours. President Trump will be talking shortly, but NAB’s David de Garis expects him to ...
Markets might have overaccentuated the positive from 2020-04-15T20:39:17
Thursday 16th April 2020
You’d expect the markets to be primed for a lot of negative economic data, says NAB’s Gavin Friend in today’s podcast. Yet the size of the drops in numbers from th...
V-shaped optimism drives shares higher from 2020-04-14T20:41:42
Wednesday 15th April 2020
Australia joined the bull run in the share market yesterday, clocking up 20.7 percent growth since March 23rd. Since then US equities have continued to rise on th...
Buying junk and cutting oil from 2020-04-13T20:36:30
Tuesday 14th April 2020
The US Fed has extended its QE shopping list. Agreeing to buy junk bonds from corporations that are suffering the impacts of the Corona virus. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’...
EU Fiddles Whilst Equities Rise from 2020-04-08T20:20:11
Thursday 9th April 2020
There’s more optimism today that countries are reaching the peak of COVID-19, which is pushing US equities higher. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s another day where th...
Equities rise as Europe’s curves flatten from 2020-04-07T20:28:18
Wednesday 8th April 2020
It’s staggering that, with so much uncertainty still remaining over the length and depth of the Corona virus, that US equity markets are close to a bull run – a 20...
Monumental hope from markets but British PM’s condition worsens from 2020-04-06T20:44:29
Tuesday 7th April 2020
Equities have bounced back in a big way today on the hope that countries will start to ease restrictions and get more people back to work, as the death rate from COV...
Are we turning a very long and slow corner? from 2020-04-05T20:45:47
Monday 6th April 2020
Hope is a rare commodity these days – unlike oil. In parts of Europe the morbidity rate from the Carona virus seems to have slowed (slightly) as lockdowns seem to be ...
Oil talk and jobless surge from 2020-04-02T19:27:49
Friday 3rd April 2020
Oil shot up in price overnight – as much as 47 percent for Brent Crude – after President Trump tweeted that Russia and the Saudis would be cutting as much as 15 milli...
Bad start to an unhealthy quarter from 2020-04-01T19:32:40
Thursday 2nd April 2020
Q2 has started with big falls again on equity markets and lower Treasury yields, whilst oil prices continue to be driven downwards. As NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses,...
US and Europe - two sides of the same coin from 2020-03-31T19:38:19
Wednesday 1st April 2020
Equities are heading in opposite directions across the Atlantic this morning – Europe is on the rise, the US is on the slide. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril...
See you on the other side from 2020-03-30T19:35:35
Tuesday 31st March 2020
As anticipated Scott Morrison has launched a massive job retention program, telling companies to hang on to their workers, because they’ll need them on the other si...
Hibernation, but for how long? from 2020-03-29T19:35:25
Monday 30th March 2020
PM Morrison is set to announce a subsidy for workers, similar to the approach taken by the UK Chancellor. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it should help companies remain r...
US equities rise on stimulus, despite massive US unemployment surge from 2020-03-26T19:41:45
Friday 27th March 2020
US equities rose sharply overnight despite the news that unemployment claims in the US have risen to 3.2 million for the week to March 21st. It seems the markets are...
Flying blind, destination unknown from 2020-03-25T19:44:47
Thursday 26th March 2020
Equities are on the rise in the US and Europe this morning. NAB’s Gavin Friend says on thin trade in the current environment you can expect volatility and it’s dif...
A brief respite on hopes of US stimulus deal from 2020-03-24T19:29:48
Wednesday 25th March 2020
Markets reversed a little overnight, with US and European equities rising, oil also on the climb, but the US dollar losing to the Euro and the pound. NAB’s Rodrig...
Unlimited QE in a world of radical uncertainty from 2020-03-23T19:25:37
Tuesday 24th March 2020
We are in a world of radical uncertainty, according to former Bank of England governor Mervyn King. That’s clear, as the US Fed announces unlimited QE. NAB’s Ray At...
Lockdowns adding to market turmoil from 2020-03-22T19:49:15
Monday 23rd March 2020
US equities continued to fall at the end of the week, even though Australia and Europe saw a brief reprieve. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s likely prices will ...
What’s driving today’s sea of green? from 2020-03-19T19:40:09
Friday 20th March 2020
Oil has shot up in price, with equities rising too and there’s a bit more interest in government bonds. So, what’s changed? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis if ...
Another day of extremes, RBA ready to cut again from 2020-03-18T19:45:20
Thursday 19th March 2020
We’ve seen big falls in equities and oil, as well as widespread selling of government bonds, even gold is being ditched. The only winner is the US dollar. Phil Dob...
Aussie’s new low and US ‘Helicopter’ Money from 2020-03-17T19:41:31
Wednesday 18th March 2020
Okay, it might not meet the technical definition of helicopter money, but President Trump is hoping to land $1,000 into the bank accounts of most Americans in the...
Another black day as markets look for light at the end of the tunnel from 2020-03-16T19:47:41
Tuesday 17th March 2020
Despite extreme measures by the Fed yesterday, cutting interest rates by a full 1%, and the return of QE, markets were far from impressed, with Monday seeing anothe...
RBNZ latest to cut in global ‘whatever it takes’ moves from 2020-03-15T19:43:21
Monday 16th March 2020
The RBNZ has slashed rates this morning to a quarter percent, promising to keep them at that level for a year. It’s the latest emergency move by central banks, with ...
Markets in turmoil as virus spreads and governments fail to respond from 2020-03-12T19:29:56
Friday 13th March 2020
Markets are in free fall as containment measures impact heavily on business, not least President Trump’s ban on visitors from mainland Europe. Central banks are doin...
A pandemic and an emergency cut with more help needed from 2020-03-11T19:27:02
Thursday 12th March 2020
The Bank of England and the UK government launched a coordinated approach on tackling COVID-19, with an emergency rate cut and fresh fiscal stimulus. Today measure...
Waiting, waiting, waiting on stimulus news from 2020-03-10T19:32:29
Wednesday 11th March 2020
Markets have bounced back a little today, even though the battle over oil seems to be getting worse. On today’s Morning Call podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland says t...
A turn for the worse - oil plunge sparks Black Monday from 2020-03-09T19:34:24
Tuesday 10th March 2020
There has been a massive fall in oil prices, as bond yields fall further to new lows, whilst the US dollar has lost more ground and equities fall further, even caus...
Oil price battle will add to volatility from 2020-03-08T19:29:10
Monday 9th March 2020
The rush to bonds continued on Friday, hitting new lows for Treasury yields, even as equities in the US saw a last-minute push and actually finished the week up a lit...
And back to the safe havens from 2020-03-05T19:42:42
Friday 6th March 2020
Markets have switched back to risk-off mood – as if they ever really went away – with big falls in equities, a shift to safer haven currencies and weakening bond yiel...
Markets rest hope on government stimulus from 2020-03-04T19:22:46
Thursday 5th March 2020
Equities and the US dollar have bounced back today, even if bond yields remain low. On today’s Morning Call NAB’s David de Garis suggests the markets are being driv...
Fed's emergency cut doesn’t halt the carnage from 2020-03-03T19:31:47
Wednesday 4th March 2020
The US Fed dropped interest rates by 50 basis points in an emergency cut today, well ahead of their next scheduled meeting. It followed a phone-hook up with G7 cen...
RBA ready to cut; G7 phone hook-up helps markets from 2020-03-02T19:30:54
Tuesday 3rd March 2020
Central bankers and finance ministers are hooking-up on a conference call later today to discuss a coordinated response to the impact of the Corona virus. That’s see...
China’s manufacturing crumbles, central banks ready to step in from 2020-03-01T19:29:57
Monday 2nd March 2020
Friday marked a bad end to a tumultuous week for the markets, with equities, commodities and bond yields all hit hard. The PMI numbers from China provided evidence of...
The rout resumes on fears of the unknown from 2020-02-27T19:33:18
Friday 28th February 2020
Thursday proved to be a very volatile day towards the end of a very volatile week, that’s seem stock markets firmly in correction territory. Phil Dobbie talks to ...
Markets Grab a Short Breather from 2020-02-26T19:30:06
Thursday 27th February 2020
The markets attempted a bit of a rebound earlier, but it hasn’t lasted long and we kick off the day with the Aussie dollar closer to an all-time low, US treasur...
Further falls on virus news, Fed easing expectations rise from 2020-02-25T19:26:03
Wednesday 26th February 2020
Markets continue to respond to news reports highlighting the (admittedly slow) spread of COVID-19. It’s raised demand for US treasuries, with yields falling fu...
Sharp moves as COVID-19 concern reaches fever pitch from 2020-02-24T19:34:03
Tuesday 25th February 2020
The extent of the spread of the Corona Virus in South Korea, into Europe and numerous other countries, has driven a major fallout in markets overnight. Equities ...
COVID-19 spreads further, bond yields fall from 2020-02-23T19:46:14
Monday 24th February 2020
There was a strong risk-off mood on Friday as COVID-19 infections spread further and the impact it is having on the global economy, with many small businesses in ...
COVID-19 Jitters hit Asian currencies; Aussie dollar at 11-year low from 2020-02-20T19:29:38
Friday 21st February 2020
Asian currencies have born the brunt of rising concerns over the spread of COVID-19 beyond the Chinese mainland. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril describes how the Japanese Y...
Apple warning forgotten as markets do an about-turn from 2020-02-19T19:29:03
Thursday 20th February 2020
The markets have spun around again, with renewed optimism and not much lingering concern from Apple’s revenue warning yesterday. In fact, Apple shares rebounded...
Apple sparks concern over virus impact from 2020-02-18T19:45:40
Wednesday 19th February 2020
The markets have returned to adopting a more cautious approach to the impact of COVID-19, after Apple said it didn’t expect to meet its forward guidance. NAB’...
Japan’s pre-virus nose-dive from 2020-02-17T19:29:06
Tuesday 18th February 2020
Nobody was expecting anything other than a bad GDP read from Japan but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, it was worse than bad. Yet there’s renewed confidence...
Markets latch on to falling infection rates from 2020-02-16T19:29:58
Monday 17th February 2020
Markets are cautiously hoping the worst of the Corona Virus is over, with equities creeping up slowly in the US and commodity currencies gaining some ground last ...
Virus worries, UK Chancellor quits, Euro falls further from 2020-02-13T19:20:46
Friday 14th February 2020
The markets slipped momentarily into risk-off as the number of Corona virus infections jumped in volume, but concern slipped back a little as it became clear that...
Virus contagion eases, stocks hit new highs (again) from 2020-02-12T19:24:26
Thursday 13th February 2020
The markets are continuing to discount the impact of the Coronavirus as the infection rate and mortality rate eases in China. Bond prices have fallen, and equit...
Powell talks shares down, Aussie rises, Britain on hold, RBNZ today from 2020-02-11T19:35:08
Wednesday 12th February 2020
President Trump tweeted as Jerome Powell launched into his testimony at Capitol Hill, saying that shares were falling the more he spoke. NAB’s Ray Attrill says...
Caution as China gets back to work from 2020-02-10T19:54:34
Tuesday 11th February 2020
As China’s factories start to reopen, and the PBoC do everything they can to maintain economic stability in the country, there seems to be hope of an early recov...
Aussie’s post GFC low; virus concerns blitz strong US jobs report from 2020-02-09T19:36:56
Monday 10th February 2020
There were lots of positive take-outs from the US non-farm payrolls on Friday night. In today’s podcast Phil Dobbie suggests to NAB’s Tapas Strickland that ordina...
China cuts tariffs, Aussie retail pushes rate cuts back from 2020-02-06T19:35:24
Friday 7th February 2020
China will halve the tariffs on a swathe of US imports next week, driving optimism in equities in the US and Asia. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this, together with ...
Markets reading the numbers and preying on hope from 2020-02-05T19:41:53
Thursday 6th February 2020
Markets are on the rise again this morning, based on positive economic data from the US and, to an extent, for Europe, whilst hoping that the Coronavirus won’t d...
And then the rebound, for now from 2020-02-04T19:18:25
Wednesday 5th February 2020
On Monday NAB’s Rodrigo Catril said the markets are blowing hot and cold on the Coronavirus – since then the markets have dived, then climbed back again. Today ...
US equities back, pound hit by argy-bargy, RBA today from 2020-02-03T19:27:08
Tuesday 4th February 2020
US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the Coronavirus, but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations. As Phi...
Australia paying the price on virus concerns from 2020-02-02T19:27:07
Monday 3rd February 2020
The Australian dollar – and emerging markets more broadly – were hit by further concerns over the spread of the Coronavirus. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril ...
Virus hits equities, slower growth for US, BoE on hold from 2020-01-30T19:35:57
Friday 31st January 2020
The Corona virus continues to cause concerns, hitting all asset classes today, including US and European equities overnight. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests the news i...
FOMC on hold, BoE go next, US GDP tonight, Corona virus spreads from 2020-01-29T19:42:13
Thursday 30th January 2020
The least surprising news today is the decision by the FOMC to keep rates on hold in the US. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland the Fed has det...
Markets rethink Corona risk; Aussie CPI today from 2020-01-28T19:33:41
Wednesday 29th January 2020
US stocks have rebounded after a day when they were hit hard over concerns on the spread of the Corona virus. NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests to Phil Dobbie on today...
Spreading virus extends risks, Aussie hit hard from 2020-01-27T19:22:54
Tuesday 28th January 2020
The Australian dollar has fallen more than one percent today as concern continues over the spread of the Corona virus. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David d...
Virus concerns spread, RBA rate cut might be delayed from 2020-01-23T19:29:53
Friday 24th January 2020
Concerns over the spread of the Corona virus have heightened, with two further Chinese cities now in lockdown. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about the ma...
A Boris Bounce, Corona concerns and Trump Targets Europe from 2020-01-22T19:26:30
Thursday 23rd January 2020
There continues to be concerns about the spread of the Corona virus. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, US equity markets have regained composur...
Trump talks it up, but equities stall from 2020-01-21T19:33:41
Wednesday 22nd January 2020
Whilst President Trump was self-aggrandising at Davos, US equities stalled and the US dollar lost a little ground to the Yen. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests that...
All Quiet until Trump Talks from 2020-01-20T19:31:20
Tuesday 21st January 2020
The US was on holiday Monday so it’s been a quiet session all round. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland the most volatility was in oil prices, w...
Equities race higher on trade optimism from 2020-01-19T19:30:18
Monday 20th January 2020
The rally in US equities continued at the end of the week, with the optimism spreading to Europe. The ASX200 also hit a new record on Friday. Phil Dobbie talks to ...
Retail numbers push US equities even higher from 2020-01-16T19:23:38
Friday 17th January 2020
US equities rose higher still today, on the back of the latest US retail numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says trading is still cautious – it’s not a ‘fear of missing o...
US deal done, new highs again for equities from 2020-01-15T19:30:55
Thursday 16th January 2020
Even though we don’t know the full details of the deal signed between the US and China today, equities have used it to post further gains and new record highs. N...
Big Beautiful Monster of a Deal Day from 2020-01-14T19:32:12
Wednesday 15th January 2019
Sometime today or tonight the US and China will sign the phase one trade deal. Shortly after we’ll see the text, outlining exactly what has been agreed. Phil Do...
China cured of currency manipulation from 2020-01-13T19:18:38
Tuesday 14th January 2020
As a further sign of a more positive path for the US and China, there are reports this morning that the US Treasury Department will no-longer consider China a cur...
Are we set for a year of higher growth? from 2020-01-12T19:26:34
Monday 13th January 2020
In our first podcast back Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the week’s economic news and the broader prospects for 2020. How will Australia fare with th...
From uncertainty to positivity? The Year Ahead. from 2019-12-22T17:12
Monday 23rd December 2019
This time last year US stocks had fallen to two-year lows. Since then they’ve climbed to a series of new highs. But, whilst equity traders have been happy, there’...
Good Aussie jobs numbers add to a positive vibe from 2019-12-19T19:00:12
Friday 20th December 2019
The Aussie dollar is one of the best performing currencies this morning. As NAB’s Dave de Garis explains, it’s held its position after the better-than-expected Au...
Slow day, with steepening yields and softer pound from 2019-12-18T19:15:14
Thursday 19th December 2019
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, with not much movement in currencies or equities. As NAB’s Gavin Friend tells Phil Dobbie, we’re finishing the year...
Brexit Risk Returns, US output boosted, Aussie dollar lower from 2019-12-17T19:37:30
Wednesday 18th December 2019
There’s no getting away from it. The pound took a hammering after Boris Johnson indicated the end of 2020 will be a firm deadline for Brexit, deal or no deal. ...
Are shares heading for a melt up? from 2019-12-16T19:35:21
Tuesday 17th December 2019
There’s been feverish activity in equity markets over the last 24 hours as investors respond to the US-China trade deal and the removal of Brexit uncertainty (fo...
A double whammy for Christmas – markets still cautious from 2019-12-15T19:33:04
Monday 16th December 2020
Two of the biggest obstacles to global economic growth have seemingly been removed, or at least sidestepped for a while. Yet the market reaction to the announceme...
D-day for trade talks and UK government from 2019-12-12T19:54:01
Friday 13th December 2019
Two significant deadlines today means, whatever happens, we can expect some volatility. The markets have surged on a potential breakthrough in US-China trade talk...
Aussie rises, Fed holds, Aramco lists, Britain votes from 2019-12-11T19:37:02
Thursday 12th November 2019
The Fed has announced no moves on rates in the US, with no expectations for cuts in 2020.. Phil Dobbie asks Rodrigo Catril for the take-outs from the FOMC state...
More interest in trade deal than impeachment or USMC deal; Australia’s sideways move from 2019-12-10T19:30:48
Wednesday 11th December 2019
After a busy start to the week markets have calmed down overnight, in a wait and see mode ahead of a series of events this week that could have some influence....
A quiet day to take in the NAB Business Survey from 2019-12-09T19:38:07
Tuesday 10th December 2019
Markets have been calm overnight, in wait and see mode ahead of a series of more important events this week. Phil Dobbie suggests to NAB’s Alex Stanley that ther...
Good jobs news – bad for a trade deal? from 2019-12-08T19:23:39
Monday 9th December 2019
Jobs numbers from the US on Friday were well above expectations and, as NAB’s Ray Attrill explains in today’s podcast, we saw a swift response in the markets. The ...
Aussie retail slowdown, ongoing trade uncertainty and US jobs numbers to come from 2019-12-05T19:43:27
Friday 6th December 2019
All eyes tonight will be on the US non-farm payrolls data. Expectations are mixed, with a weaker ADP employment reading earlier in the week, but a fall in jobless ...
Pound Rises, Oil Shoots Up, Trump Leaves Early from 2019-12-04T19:28:23
Thursday 5th December 2019
Oil has been the big mover overnight ahead of the OPEC summit. We’ve also seen a return to optimism from the US equity markets on words from President Trump that...
President Out-Trumps Himself at NATO from 2019-12-03T19:20:12
Wednesday 4th December 2019
President Trump has upset markets further today suggesting that the trade deal with China might be left till after the US election, a year away. He also took ai...
Trump threatens more tariffs as China’s manufacturing grows, US slows from 2019-12-02T19:41:54
Tuesday 3rd December 2019
The markets were spooked overnight by threats of further tariffs from the US President if a trade resolution isn’t reached. He also showed he meant business by in...
RBA week, oil volatility, Merkel’s coalition in danger from 2019-12-01T19:32:17
Monday 2nd December 2019
It’s an important week for Australian markets, with a slew of data today, GDP released on Wednesday and the RBA meeting between them. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks th...
China angry on US Hong Kong Bill, but will it impact the trade deal? from 2019-11-28T19:18:14
Friday 29th November 2019
President Trump has signed the Hong Kong human rights act. NAB’s David de Garis says on today’s Morning Call podcast that it was likely he would, but it's unlikel...
Markets positive on US data from 2019-11-27T19:21:25
Thursday 28th November 2019
For once US markets have been driven not by trade talks, but by hard numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about the bounce back in durable goods and...
Lowe on QE, US equities up, pound lower, US inflation tonight from 2019-11-26T19:27:05
Wednesday 27th November 2019
RBA Governor Philip Lowe said QE wouldn’t happen in Australia until interest rates got down to 0.25%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril goes through the take-outs from the ...
Trade hope sends stocks high, Aussie waits on Lowe from 2019-11-25T19:38:58
Tuesday 26th November 2019
The hope that something will happen soon between the US and china has sent US equities to new highs although, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, ot...
New week, new hope from 2019-11-24T19:37:01
Monday 25th November 2019
There was renewed hope that a phase one trade deal could be reached between the US and China by Christmas, with President Xi announcing tougher regulation of IP t...
Markets ignore impeachment, they want the trade war resolved from 2019-11-21T19:38:21
Friday 22nd December 2019
The headlines in today’s US papers will be all about the testimony from Gordon Sondland to the impeachment hearings in Washington. In Israel the lead will be corr...
Will Human Rights Bill scupper a trade deal? from 2019-11-20T19:33:36
Thursday 21st November 2019
There’s some concern that a Bill passed by the US Senate could hinder progress of the phase one trade deal with China. With the markets adopting a mild risk-off...
China wants to rollback to May, RBA considered a cut, Boris goes in to bat from 2019-11-19T19:16:02
Wednesday 20th November 2019
The markets are still waiting for developments on the US China trade talks. There are unconfirmed reports that China is pushing harder for tariff rollbacks but...
China uncertain, Boris boosted from 2019-11-18T19:21:02
Tuesday 19th November 2019
The US China trade talks continue to blow hot and cold, with reports today that China is dubious that they will proceed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the market res...
Markets living on high apple pie, in the sky hopes from 2019-11-17T19:29:25
Monday 18th November 2019
US equities finished last week on new highs on the hope that the phase one trade deal between the US and China is close. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the news contin...
Aussie dollar fall continues, bond yields down as trade delay persists from 2019-11-14T19:32:41
Friday 15th November 2019
The Aussie dollar fell sharply yesterday on the back of disappointing jobs numbers, followed by weaker than anticipated activity data from China. Phil Dobbie asks...
The Kiwi flies, Powell stands still from 2019-11-13T19:21
Thursday November 14th
The NZ dollar saw the biggest currency move over the last 24 hours, after the RBNZ kept rates on hold. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, two weeks ago that wouldn’...
President talks, but gives nothing away from 2019-11-12T19:28:23
Wednesday 13th November 2019
It was widely anticipated that President Trump might give away some clues on the progress of trade talks with China today, when he gave an address to the Econo...
Brexit pact boosts pound from 2019-11-11T19:34:18
Tuesday 12th November 2019
Sterling bounced higher today, shortly after GDP figures showed the UK had narrowly missed a recession. But the move in the pound was more to do with the Brexit ...
Trump won’t rollover on rollbacks from 2019-11-10T19:28:04
Monday 11th November 2019
President Trump finally spoke up after a week of speculation in the markets on which direction the US-China trade talks were heading. As Phil Dobbie discusses wit...
Tariff rollbacks. Stock market up big. from 2019-11-07T19:30:41
Friday 8th November 2019
We know, lousy English, but these are the words of the US President as shares rose higher on further hope that trade talks with China will see a roll back in exist...
No time, no place, no momentum from 2019-11-06T19:22:57
Thursday 7th November 2019
Market sentiment has done a complete U-turn on yesterday, as hopes around that phase one trade deal have been put on hold, with a meeting this month seeming unli...
High hopes and a gentle turning point from 2019-11-05T19:35:20
Wednesday 6th November 2019
With nothing concrete to go on, markets continue to factor-in optimism over the US-China trade talks. NAB’s David de Garis talks through the reaction to reports...
Shocking Shopping Statistics, but RBA likely to hold from 2019-11-04T19:35:53
Tuesday 5th November 2019
Yesterday’s retail numbers showed Australians are cutting back on their shopping habits. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if it’s enough of a concern to influen...
Getting high on jobs growth from 2019-11-03T19:31:14
Monday 4th November 2019
US equities hit new highs again on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the optimism follows the release of better than expected non-farm payrolls data on Friday. But...
Phase 2 deal unlikely; Trump’s impeachment proceedings; the Fed and the Aussie dollar from 2019-10-31T19:26:41
Friday 1st November 2019
There’s a bit of risk aversion today, as China indicates a phase two trade resolution will be difficult to reach, as impeachment proceedings start against the US P...
Fed - Cut and hold from 2019-10-30T19:34:49
Thursday 31st October 2019
The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates as expected. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis what happens next. The expectation is that they will hold, but t...
UK votes on voting, Aussie CPI today, Fed tomorrow from 2019-10-29T19:33:21
Wednesday October 30th 2019
Right now the UK government is deciding whether to hold an election in early December. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether it will do anything to unlock...
US stocks flying high on hope from 2019-10-28T19:35:13
Tuesday 29th October 2019
US stocks are on the rise as optimism for a trade deal intensifies, but Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril how much we really know about the deal? Could it be ...
Fed easing, trade hopes rising, Brexit stalling from 2019-10-27T19:21:49
Monday 28th October 2019
Stand by, its going to be a busy week. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, there’s a lot of data releases to help gauge the shape of the world economy. On top of that a...
Arriverderci, Mario; pound hit by Boris’ election hope from 2019-10-24T19:39:40
Friday 25th October 2019
Mario Draghi has painted a grim picture as he steps away from the ECB. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Alex Stanley whether he has done a good job, and what will be the nex...
Au revoir Draghi, Bonjour UK election from 2019-10-23T19:20:48
Thursday 24th October 2019
Mario Draghi is preparing to chair his last ECB meeting, with no expectation he will move rates. In fact, he leaves a board divided on what to do next, a problem...
Brexit Bill proceeds, then stops! from 2019-10-22T19:43:16
Wednesday 23rd October 2019
There have been two big votes in the UK this morning. In the first, MPs voted for the Brexit Withdrawal Bill to proceed. But the second vote rejected the timeta...
Brexit Déjà vu; December tariff hike could be off the table from 2019-10-21T19:23:44
Tuesday 22nd October 2019
As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, two familiar stories dominated the markets overnight – Brexit and the US China trade talks. The UK government fai...
Another Brexit deadline. The return of US-China deal optimism. from 2019-10-20T19:34:51
Monday 21st October 2019
After the vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal was postponed on Saturday it looks like he’ll be trying to get parliament to vote on it today or tomorrow, and there’...
The Brexit see-saw and the Aussie employment bonus from 2019-10-17T19:28:29
Friday 18th October 2019
A beaming, if somewhat weary, Boris Johnson announced a brand-new deal on Brexit, agreed by the EU. Phil Dobbier talks to Alex Stanley about the early market respo...
The Brexit Vibe Is Positive from 2019-10-16T19:28:29
Thursday 17th October 2019
The pound has risen again as negotiations continue into the night (again) over a Brexit deal. VAT is the latest sticking point in the detailed discussions. NAB’s...
Pound Higher on Brexit’s Midnight Mercy Dash from 2019-10-15T19:47:53
Wednesday 16th October 2019
Boris Johnson has till midnight tonight (UK time) to deliver the legal text for a Brexit deal for discussion at the EU summit this week. Phil Dobie asks Ray Att...
More talk before truce from 2019-10-14T19:31:22
Tuesday 15th October 2019
There’s a little apprehension in the markets this morning because the US China trade deal might not be a done deal. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains on today’s Mo...
A Double Deal … did the markets overreact? from 2019-10-13T19:35:39
Monday 14th October 2019
The markets finished last week on a high, with a phase 1 deal sorted between the US and China, and hope that a solution might have been found for Brexit. Phil Dobb...
Two big slugs of positivity from 2019-10-10T19:34:23
Friday 11th October 2019
Today could have been so different. Early in the week the expectation was that US-China trade talks and Brexit negotiations would go nowhere. Now, both look like s...
Markets respond to a glimmer of hope from 2019-10-09T19:30:16
Thursday 10th October 2019
There’s a risk on mood in the markets today on hopes that some osrt of interim deal will emerge from the high-level US China trade talks that kick off today. As ...
Deals are falling off the table from 2019-10-08T19:27:43
Wednesday 9th October 2019
Even though trade talks are still going ahead between the US and China this week, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, what little hope of any sort o...
The Waiting Games: trade, Brexit and Syria from 2019-10-07T19:37:08
Tuesday 8th October 2019
President Trump has elevated concerns over Syria announcing he would pull US troops out of the Kurdish regions in the north. As Tapas Strickland discusses with Phi...
Services sector slips and rate cut hopes rise from 2019-10-03T20:35:33
Friday 4th October 2019
In the US the non-manufacturing ISM read came in a lot lower than expected. The result has been a rise in US equities. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether th...
Q4 off to a bad start as stocks tumble on slowdown fears from 2019-10-02T19:33:15
Thursday 3rd October 2019
It’s a sea of red for global equities and US bond yields today, as markets continue to react to fears of a trade-war induced slowdown, evidenced by the downturn i...
RBA takes aim, US manufacturing shoots lower from 2019-10-01T20:33:21
Wednesday 2nd October 2019
The markets have reacted firmly to news from the RBA yesterday. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, it’s less to do with the cut, which was expected, but more to do w...
Markets brush off all yesterday’s news; RBA cut expected from 2019-09-30T20:34:17
Tuesday 1st October 2019
US equities are on the rise as markets brush off concerns over the lack of progress on US China trade talks. Oil has also retreated from the peaks after the Saudi ...
Trump’s equity delisting threat, a storm in a China teacup? from 2019-09-29T20:49:42
Monday 30th October 2019
US equities felt the heat on Friday with news that the Trump administration was looking at new ways of limiting investment in China, including delisting Chinese fi...
The US Dollar close to two year high, despite everything from 2019-09-26T20:40:50
Friday 27th September 2019
The US dollar index (DXY) reached over 99.3, close to a two-year high. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend how, despite the US-China trade dispute and uncertaint...
New trade hope, no smoking gun, more Brexit noise from 2019-09-25T20:43:23
Thursday 26th September 2019
The markets reacted positively to indications from President Trump that a trade deal with China could be close. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobbie that t...
Impeachment talk knocks markets from 2019-09-24T20:47:35
Wednesday 25th September 2019
Nancy Pelosi has announced impeachment proceedings against the US President, over allegations he pressured the Ukranian President to interfere with the 2020 e...
German manufacturing worst in 10 years; will Lowe signal RBA rate cut from 2019-09-23T20:35:15
Tuesday 24th September 2019
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is talking in Armidale later today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobbie that he could use the opportunity to signal that another r...
Trump pours cold water on trade hopes from 2019-09-22T20:25:35
Monday 23rd September 2019
Hopes of a quick resolution to the US China trade dispute seem as unlikely as ever, with President Trump dismissing the idea of a partial deal and China cancelli...
Will jobless numbers push the RBA to cut sooner? from 2019-09-19T20:29:51
Friday 20th September 2019
There’s a rising expectation that the RBA will cut interest rates at their next meeting, following disappointing employment numbers yesterday. Phil Dobbie asks N...
Fed turns hawkish, bank liquidity problems continue, oil slides further from 2019-09-18T20:24
Thursday 19th September 2019
It didn’t take long for the US President to attack the Federal Reserve as it cut rates but didn’t give a clear indication of further cuts or promise the return...
Oil slides as production returns from 2019-09-17T20:23:16
Wednesday 18th September 2019
Oil prices fell sharply today on the news that Saudi oil production will be back in full by the end of the month. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether ...
The Saudi aftermath - winners and losers from 2019-09-16T20:31:44
Tuesday 17th September 2019
Brent Crude rose 20 percent at the market open on Monday morning, the biggest single move since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodri...
Oil attack hits supplies and Iran relations from 2019-09-15T20:47:54
Monday 16th September 2019
Attacks on the world’s largest oil refinery has hit global supplies hard. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the impact on oil prices and how the accom...
QE is back at the ECB from 2019-09-12T20:12:13
Friday 13th September 2019
The ECB is to reintroduce quantitative easing, along with a small cut in rates and more TLTROs. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains the measures they are taking and the ...
Draghi’s (almost) last stand from 2019-09-11T20:07:26
Thursday 12th September 2019
Mario Draghi is easing his way out of the ECB tonight (Australian time), literally. After this, he has one more meeting before Christine Lagarde takes over, bu...
Bond Yields Rising, No Bazooka on the Way from 2019-09-10T20:31:37
Wednesday 11th September 2019
For listeners of a certain vintage, the title to today’s podcast is a homage to Creedence Clearwater Revival. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catr...
Bonds sold off, Boris’ no-deal stymied from 2019-09-09T20:36:09
Tuesday 10th September 2019
Bond yields have paved down across the world, driven by a sell-off in German bunds. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it relates to a growing expectation that the ECB...
Trade war impacts as ECB prepares to pull out the stops from 2019-09-08T20:27:18
Monday 9th September 2019
US payrolls numbers disappointed a little on Friday and China’s trade numbers over the weekend demonstrated what impact the trade war was having. Phil Dobbie asks...
Talks back on, bonds sell off from 2019-09-05T20:04:26
Friday 6th September 2019
There’s been big moves on equities and bonds today as talks between the US and China appear to be back on. That’s created a slight risk-on mood, helped also by st...
US dollar weaker on Hong Kong, UK and Italy’s positive news from 2019-09-04T20:36:11
Thursday 5th September 2019
The US dollar is weaker today on the back of positive developments in other parts of the world. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, the unrest...
US manufacturing shows cracks, Brexit delays and Aussie GDP today from 2019-09-03T20:17:20
Wednesday 4th September 2019
Very soon it’s likely that the UK parliament will take the first step to delaying Brexit, allowing for yet more negotiating time with the EU. Ass Phil Dobbie d...
Is a pre-Brexit election looming? from 2019-09-02T20:40:34
Tuesday 3rd September 2019
Boris Johnson stood outside No. 10 Downing Street earlier, saying he didn’t want an election before the Brexit deadline. But could that be a signal that he’s goi...
New month, new tariffs, new uncertainty from 2019-09-01T20:36:52
Monday 2nd September 2019
In the US new tariffs on Chinese imports kicked in over the weekend, with the usual accompanying notes from the US President via Twitter. It happens as consumer s...
China’s olive branch supports risk-on mood from 2019-08-29T19:59:07
Friday 30th August 2019
In the US, the dollar, equities and bond yields have all risen on the news that China would rather talk than retaliate, as the latest increase in tariffs from the U...
Boris, proroguing his way to Brexit from 2019-08-28T20:07:43
Thursday 29th August 2019
UK politics has turned even more toxic with Prime Minister Boris Johnson suspending parliament from September 12th, for five weeks. As Phil Dobbie discusses with ...
Markets fall after yesterday’s false hope from 2019-08-27T20:41:51
Wednesday 28th August 2019
Markets have taken a hit as much of yesterday’s optimism subsides. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, when President Trump said at the G7 that C...
Turn around on trade war but downturn in Germany from 2019-08-26T20:41:18
Tuesday 27th August 2019
The markets have done a complete u-turn overnight on the back of positive news on the US China trade talks and some wins from the G7 summit, including proposals to...
A stormy Monday as trade war ratchets up from 2019-08-25T20:28:03
Monday 26th August 2019
China’s official response to President Trump’s latest round of import tariffs sent markets into a spin on Friday. That was before the US President responded, pushes...
All eyes on Powell; manufacturing weak in US and Europe from 2019-08-22T20:37:57
Friday 23rd August 2019
Markit PMIs show US manufacturing has contracted, whilst in Europe it remains in a slump but hasn’t fallen as far as anticipated. The pound has enjoyed some renewed...
A divided Fed, a failed bond auction and a blistering Brexit from 2019-08-21T20:08:32
Thursday 22nd August 2019
The FOMC minutes released today highlight the divisions in the Fed at their last meeting. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis what this means for the next meeti...
Markets retreat as Conte goes, but Merkel offers an olive branch from 2019-08-20T20:18:33
Wednesday 21st August 2019
The markets retreated from yesterday’s optimism, with shares and bond yields falling, the US dollar losing against the Yen and gold back on the rise. Phil Dobbie...
US dollar, equities and bond yields rise, but why? from 2019-08-19T20:25:51
Tuesday 20th August 2019
A wave of positivity seems to have hit the markets – the US dollar is up, other safe haven currencies are down, bond yields are rising and oil is on the up. It’s a...
Germany to spend, Huawei to extend and Boris to block from 2019-08-18T20:39:24
Monday 19th August 2019
The surprise news on Friday were reports that the German government might relax some of its spending rules to splash out and prevent a recession. Phil Dobbie talks ...
China’s retaliation and Europe’s big bazooka add to the bond rally from 2019-08-15T20:17:46
Friday 16th August 2019
A member of the ECB Governing Council suggested that the markets hadn’t priced in the extent of the stimulus measures coming next month. ‘ECB Has Big Bazooka Primed...
Bond yields and equities dive on bad economic news from China and Germany from 2019-08-14T20:41
Thursday 15th August 2019
It’s far from a quiet day on the markets. Bond yields have fallen as Chinese industrial production and retail sales numbers came in lower than expected. Germany i...
Tariff delays bring swift response; higher CPI in US, higher wages in UK, disastrous ZEW from Europe from 2019-08-13T20:40:36
Wednesday 14th August 2019
There’s been a sharp turnaround in market sentiment as the US announced delays to the extra tariffs on Chinese imports planned for the end of the month. That’s s...
Argentina’s election shock, Hong Kong’s airport closure and other stories of unrest from 2019-08-12T20:35:01
Tuesday 13th August 2019
There’s a continued risk-off mood in the markets today, not helped by protestors forcing the closure of Hong Kong Airport and a surprise defeat of Argentina’s Pres...
NAB revises forecasts as trade tensions rise, Pound pummelled, Salvini fires election salvo from 2019-08-11T20:33:09
Monday 12th August 2019
The US President hinted that a resumption of trade talks with China wasn’t a done deal, adding uncertainty in an already shaky market. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ro...
China fixes whilst Trump fiddles from 2019-08-08T20:38:40
Friday 9th August 2019
Are the markets more concerned about the relative strength of the Chinese currency than they are about tariffs? That’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Tapas Str...
Germany and NZ send markets on a rollercoaster from 2019-08-07T20:27:54
Thursday 8th August 2019
Bond yields have been all over the place. US 10 year treasuries fell 10 basis points, before climbing back 11, whilst UK gilt yields hit a record low of 0.43 perce...
China helps the bounce back from 2019-08-06T20:25:51
Wednesday 7th August 2019
US stocks have bounced back, the US dollar has picked up against the Yen and Treasury yields have climbed a little. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains to Phil Dobbie,...
Market Frenzy on Chinese Trade Response from 2019-08-05T20:32:37
Tuesday 6th August 2019
Markets continued in risk-off mood as China announced its response to President Trump’s threat of extended import tariffs. The price to pay is a halt to the purchas...
Market prices US-China trade escalation from 2019-08-04T20:38:36
Monday 5th August 2019
As we reported on Friday’s Morning Call, there was a swift market reaction to President Trump’s announcement on further tariffs on imports from China. Equities, curr...
Trump goes all the way on China tariffs from 2019-08-01T20:32:04
Friday 2nd August 2019
A tweet from President Trump promising a 10% tariff on the remainder of imports from China has sent the markets into a tailspin. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de ...
Fed cuts as expected, but markets still react from 2019-07-31T20:26:13
Thursday 1st August 2019
Jerome Powell said the Fed’s actions today were well telegraphed, yet there was some short-term market reaction during his press conference – equities fell, bond y...
The Fed Decision, Aussie and European Inflation and the Falling Pound from 2019-07-30T20:33:34
Wednesday 31st July 2019
Get ready for a busy 24 hours, culminating in the Fed rate decision early tomorrow morning (Australia time). Before that we’ll have CPI numbers for Australia and E...
Hard Brexit or a Quick Election? from 2019-07-29T20:38:26
Tuesday 30th July 2019
The pound took another hit today, now at its lowest level since March 2017, as new British PM Boris Johnson ramps up plans for a no-deal Brexit, whilst insisted a de...
Stronger earnings, surprising GDP, but no grand-deal from 2019-07-28T20:33:02
The US finished on a high last week. The dollar had risen after higher than expected GDP growth, and the S&P500 and NASDAQ were on record highs after strong earnings results. This week will be one ...
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Draghi ignores the freefall, for now from 2019-07-25T20:45:15
Friday 26th July 2019
The latest IFO readings have shown a sharp downturn – ‘in freefall’ has been one description – yet t the ECB didn’t budge today. Mario Draghi flapped future action, b...
European manufacturing weakens ahead of ECB from 2019-07-24T20:39:27
Thursday 25th July 2019
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Alex Stanley about another set of disappointing data from Europe. Eurozone manufacturing PMIs are well down, hitting a seven-year low in ...
BoJo wins, China trade talks next week from 2019-07-23T20:20:45
Wednesday 24th July 2019
US shares were doing well ahead of the news that trade talks would resume between the US and China next week. That’s pushed equities even higher. It’s that’s the s...
Tying up loose ends before recess from 2019-07-22T20:40:35
Tuesday 23rd July 2019
The race is on to try and get through stuff before the summer recess in the US and Europe. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the next steps on Brexit...
Cuts out of context from 2019-07-21T20:45:34
Monday 22nd July 2019
There was a reversal of fortunes on Friday, as the NY Fed clarified comments from their President John Williams the day before. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains to Phil ...
Heading for a half percent cut? from 2019-07-18T20:25:39
Friday 19th July 2019
Could the Fed be careering to a half percent rate cut at the end of the month? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Alex Stanley if that could be the case, with bond yields and the...
A Darker Shade of Beige from 2019-07-17T20:28:43
Thursday 18th July 2019
The Fed’s Beige Book was out this morning and NAB’s David de Garis has been flicking through the pages. He tells Phil Dobbie that the report talks of modest growth,...
Mixed US data, more trade talk rhetoric, Brexit drives pound down from 2019-07-16T20:52:21
Wednesday 17th July 2019
President Trump has been taking to the Twittersphere again to warn of increased tariffs against China. But, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, China’s commerce mi...
China’s stimulus helps ahead of tariff hike from 2019-07-15T20:34:54
Tuesday 16th July 2019
Even though President Trump tweeted overnight that tariffs were having a “major effect” on the Chinese economy, the GDP numbers he referred to largely related to gro...
US share hit highs, China trade slows, earnings season kick offs from 2019-07-14T20:36:44
Monday 15th July 2019
China reported disappointing import numbers at the close on Friday. It’s significant, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, because it shows that, as demand for Chinese goods falls...
A hint of rising inflation doesn’t budge Powell from 2019-07-11T20:04:32
Friday 12th July 2019
Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t alter his stance on day two of his Senate testimony. NAB’s David de Garis says expectations for a cut haven’t wavered from yesterday, d...
Powell ignores payroll from 2019-07-10T20:18:50
Thursday 11th July 2019
Jerome Powell has sent the markets back to where they were before the non-farm payrolls data last week. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains to Phil Dobbie, the Fed Gover...
Tariffs bite as Powell prepares to testify from 2019-07-09T20:31:26
Wednesday 10th July 2019
In today’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill explains how the latest small business data in the US shows signs that tariffs on Chinese imports might be starting to make th...
Markets on hold, as Fed speakers go into overdrive from 2019-07-08T20:37:52
Tuesday 9th July 2019
There were no big movements on US equities or bonds overnight, as markets wait to see what Jerome Powell has to say in his Congress testimonies mid-week. But he’s not...
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! from 2019-07-07T20:36:26
Monday 8th July 2019
The US payrolls data was stronger than expected on Friday. The US President summarised it in three words, all of them ‘Jobs!’ It boosted the US dollar, hit equities (...
Trade slow, yields lower from 2019-07-04T19:40:59
Friday 5th July 2019
Trading has been thin was US markets closed for the 4th July holiday. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, there’s been little movement in equities, but...
Record highs on equities, bond yields fall, and more weak data from 2019-07-03T19:54:36
Thursday 4th July 2019
Trade was a little lighter ahead of the 4th July holiday, but equities took an early mark on record highs, whilst bond yields fell further. NAB’s Gavin Friend sugges...
Rate cuts, Carney’s shipwreck and a new gig for Lagarde? from 2019-07-02T20:26:24
Wednesday 3rd July 2019
Global bond yields have fallen after BoE Governor Mark Carney warned of a shipwreck to the global economy if trade tensions intensify. The move to safe havens is a ...
RBA in Darwin to add some heat to the economy from 2019-07-01T20:49:47
Tuesday 2nd July 2019
The RBA meets in Darwin today and is expected to cut interest rates. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, if not today, then certainly at the August meeting. Meanwhile, the positi...
Trumps talks about more talk – enough for the markets to go on? from 2019-06-30T20:33:54
Monday 1st July 2019
The markets may have breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Trump Xi meeting at the weekend culminating in some sort of truce, but Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas ...
False hope on G20? Unicorn dreams from Boris? from 2019-06-27T20:25:41
Friday 28th June 2019
Markets seem to indicate a little optimism on the outcome of the Trump Xi meeting at the G20 this weekend. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil Dobbie, ther...
Bond yields bounce back; Trump’s bad hair day from 2019-06-26T20:18:43
Thursday 27th June 2019
President Trump has taken aim at just about everyone in the last 24 hours – Vietnam, Europe, Jerome Powell – but, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis...
More rate cut talk, except in NZ; Risk adversity drives yields to record lows in Europe from 2019-06-25T20:29:24
Wednesday 26th June 2019
There was a batch of bad data from the US in the last 24 hours but, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril tells phil Dobbie, Jerome Powell and James Bullard have been cautioning...
Trump warns Iran, Lowe warns against global monetary easing from 2019-06-24T20:48:31
Tuesday 25th June 2019
It’s been a quiet 24 hours as the world continues to hang on for the outcome of the G20 meeting. Even an executive order declaring more sanctions against Iran did li...
A glimmer of hope for Europe; more rhetoric ahead of trade talks from 2019-06-23T20:20:15
Monday 24th June 2019
European markets reacted to better than expected PMI numbers on Friday, but as NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests, the numbers weren’t that great, and unlikely to change the ...
After the Fed: Bond yields down, dollar down, equities up from 2019-06-20T20:36:39
Friday 21st June 2019
The market continues to respond to the Dovish Fed statement yesterday, with a rally in US equities, falls in Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar. NAB’s Alex S...
The Fed, Lowe, BoJ and Bojo from 2019-06-19T20:29:25
Thursday 20th June 2019
The Fed has kept rates on hold but, as NAB’s David de Garis explains, they have kept the door wide open for future rate cuts. Phil Dobbie asks him what the FOMC’s d...
Draghi turns dovish, China talks hopeful from 2019-06-18T20:24:28
Wednesday 19th June 2019
There’s been a lot of movement in equities and bonds, with Mario Draghi changing his tune on the state of the European economy and the role of the ECB. Rate cuts l...
All eyes on Portugal, the Gulf and US manufacturing from 2019-06-17T20:32:45
Tuesday 18th June 2019
On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Ray Attrill talks to Phil Dobbie about two binary events. One is later this month, when President Xi and President Trump (hopefully) me...
Lower inflation, lower yields and lower rates – a busy week for central banks from 2019-06-16T20:27:59
Monday 17th June 2019
There are rate meetings for the FOMC, Bank of Japan and Bank of England this week, as well as the ECB Forum opening in Portugal tonight. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ro...
Expectations of rate cuts rise, unrest in the Gulf grows from 2019-06-13T20:32:42
Friday 14th June 2019
The Aussie dollar was the worst performing of the major currencies overnight, following yesterday’s unemployment numbers. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Alex Stanley how much...
Pipeline sanctions threat as Trump turns focus to Europe from 2019-06-12T20:05:08
Thursday 13th June 2019
President Trump has refocused his attention on Europe, threatening sanctions if Germany pushes ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. As NAB’s Gavin Fri...
China’s stimulus boosts equities, for a bit from 2019-06-11T20:20:35
Wednesday 12th June 2019
China is doing what it can to boost infrastructure investment, perhaps fearing the worst outcome from a Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 later this month. It boosted eq...
Trump ends Mexican standoff, markets react from 2019-06-10T20:30:24
Tuesday 11th June 2019
There’s a risk on mood in the markets this morning, after Friday’s u-turn by the US President over Mexican tariffs. That’s one Mexican standoff resolved, but Brexit ...
An optimistic ECB, despite everything from 2019-06-06T20:19:55
Friday 7th June 2019
The Euro rose today after the ECB spoke little of new measures to combat the economic downturn. In fact, as NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, they consider the economy to b...
Too much oil, hope for Mexico and ECB on hold? from 2019-06-05T20:42:05
Thursday 6th June 2019
Markets are hopefully that a deal will be reached with Mexico and tariffs will be avoided, but it depends who you believe. Meanwhile, a big fall in new jobs in the l...
Powell’s balancing act; Lowe hints at further cuts from 2019-06-04T20:26:42
Wednesday 5th June 2019
There’s been a sharp rise in US equities after comments from the Fed’s Jerome Powell, signalling rate cuts are likely. But, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains, he man...
RBA rate cut, Fed to follow. from 2019-06-03T20:20:21
Tuesday 4th June 2019
The RBA is expected to cut interest rates today, but more interesting will be what Philip Lowe says this evening. Will he signal the extent of further cuts? Phil Dobb...
Trade battles on many fronts drives further uncertainty from 2019-06-02T20:43:57
Monday 3rd June 2019
The market continues to adjust to the expectation that the US-China trade spat won’t disappear in a hurry. Now the US President has threatened tariffs on Mexico and wi...
Treasury yields fall further as rate cut expectations rise from 2019-05-30T19:53:09
Friday 31st May 2019
It’s been a fairly quiet session, with little movement in currencies and an early rebound in equities failing to catch on. But, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gav...
More risk off, rate cut talk and downward revisions from 2019-05-29T20:23:47
Thursday 30th May 2019
It’s not a rosy picture that NAB’s Tapas Strickland paints of the global economy on today’s Morning Call. Phil Dobbie asks him how far US stocks would have to fall b...
Misplaced confidence, a housing bounce and a big day for the RBNZ from 2019-05-28T20:19:58
Wednesday 29th May 2019
Consumer confidence in the US hit a six month high, yet there’s a continued flight to bonds, pushing treasury yields to the lowest level since September 2017. Phil ...
The EU election aftermath from 2019-05-27T20:14:03
Tuesday 28th May 2019
The EU elections didn’t see a groundswell of support for the far right, but as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discusses with Phil Dobbie, there are repercussions being felt acr...
EU votes, Tories squabble, Trump golfs from 2019-05-26T20:31:56
Monday 27th May 2019
Markets calmed a great deal on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether there’s renewed hope of a deal between the US and China. Perhaps it would help if Pre...
Markets act as though the trade row is here for the long term from 2019-05-23T20:19:27
Friday 24th May 2019
There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc. But as NAB’s Gavin Friend explains to Phil Dobbie, this ...
FOMC patient, May stubborn, Trump determined from 2019-05-22T20:31:42
Thursday 23rd May 2019
In the FOMC minutes released today, the Fed reiterated its pledge to wait and see on interest rates. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether the market is as pat...
Huawei On Hold, Lowe Goes Lower and Pound Fails to Fly on May’s DoDo Deal from 2019-05-21T20:28:57
Wednesday 22nd May 2019
The Australian dollar is close to it lowest level since January 2016. As NAB’s Ray Attril explains to Phil Dobbie, it’s all down to the RBA’s Philip Lowe, who gave ...
Powell and Lowe - will they both hint at rate cuts today? from 2019-05-20T20:33:53
Tuesday 21st May 2019
There’s further escalation of the US China trade dispute, as Google indicates it won’t be working as closely with Huawei ... after all, that’s what the President aske...
An election surprise and the existential threat of imported cars from 2019-05-19T20:20:36
Monday 20th May 2019
As you know, the Coalition had a surprise victory on Saturday night (we assume they will hold on top government in some form). As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil...
Strong data shows it’s (the) US against the rest from 2019-05-16T20:31:34
Friday 17th May 2019
Overnight we saw rising US share indices and a strengthening dollar. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NBA’s Rodrigo Catril, its very different to the story back home, whe...
Markets buoyed by reports of auto tariff delay from 2019-05-15T20:31:50
Thursday 16th May 2019
US and European equities are up again today on reports that President Trump is delaying auto-tariffs due to kick in this weekend. But Treasury yields have fallen on ...
It was turnaround Tuesday , yet the ‘squabble’ continues from 2019-05-14T19:20:24
Wednesday 15th May 2019
Gavin Friend says in Europe they’ve nicknamed last night as turnaround Tuesday as stocks regained much of their losses, the US dollar did the same and treasury yiel...
Markets hit as China bites back from 2019-05-13T19:54:32
Tuesday 14th May 2019
Stocks, currencies, bonds and commodities have all felt the impact as China responds to US tariffs. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars fell markedly, whilst US equities plun...
Possible volatility ahead as US China trade dispute intensifies from 2019-05-12T20:11:39
Monday 13th May 2019
The US President’s thumbs have been working hard over the weekend, using Twitter to threaten further tariffs on China, on top of those imposed on Friday. Phil Dobbie a...
China “broke the deal”. Tariff deadline hours away. from 2019-05-09T20:14:29
Friday 10th May 2019
The imposition of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports is just hours away. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the markets reacted sharply to President T...
Markets resting on hope of a tariff delay from 2019-05-08T20:29:24
Thursday 9th May 2019
Overnight US equities have partially reversed their declines. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether this reflects an assumption that a trade deal will be done...
No deals, no rate cut and less Euro-growth from 2019-05-07T19:49:13
Wednesday 8th May 2019
US equities have been knocked again because those increased tariffs from the US on Chinese imports are looking more likely than not. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas...
Will the RBA cut rates today? from 2019-05-06T20:26:13
Tuesday 7th May 2019
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the RBA could cut interest rates today. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril how likely that is. Will it also influence ...
Trump’s week-end tariff spat from 2019-05-05T20:24:58
Monday 6th May 2019
The US President has been on Twitter in the last few hours threatening to lift tariffs on China by the end of the week, saying trade negotiation are moving too slowly. ...
One Day After the Fed from 2019-05-02T20:44:54
Friday 3rd May 2019
Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market’s continuing reaction to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ remark on low inflation yesterday. It’s seen ...
Powell’s tightrope walk on inflation from 2019-05-01T20:05:20
Thursday 2nd May 2019
Markets moved sharply during Jerome Powell’s press conference following the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold. It stemmed from his comments that, whilst inflation ...
Europe performs, Venezuela riots, the world waits for the Fed from 2019-04-30T20:32:03
Wednesday 1st May 2019
It’s less than a day before the FOMC meets and Jerome Powell talks to the press. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what we should expect, whilst reviewing the ch...
Fed’s quandary: US spending rises, inflation softer from 2019-04-29T20:05:56
Tuesday 30th April 2019
It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours, as markets wait for word from the Fed later in the week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil Dobbie to discuss the latest data ...
The soft underbelly of US growth from 2019-04-28T20:33:01
Monday 29th April 2019
Friday’s headline GDP number was surprisingly strong on Friday. As the President put it, 3.2% growth in Q1 was ‘smashing expectations’. But, on today’s podcast NAB’s...
Is a RBA rate cut even more likely? from 2019-04-25T20:38:56
Friday 26th April 2019
It’s been a dovish couple of days for central banks. First, as NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie, Australia’s weak CPI numbers make a cut more likely in A...
US equities ride high, pound dives on uncertainty from 2019-04-23T19:36:24
Wednesday 24th April 2019
Earnings results have pushed US equities to record highs. Twitter shares surged 15% on their results. The US dollar is higher too but, as NAB’s Gavin Friend expla...
Trump’s blanket ban on Iranian oil from 2019-04-22T22:22:40
Tuesday 23rd April 2019
It’s a busy start to a shortened week, with the Trump administration announcing an end to waivers for nations buying Iranian oil. Sanctions will be imposed from ea...
Chinese slowdown? What slowdown? from 2019-04-17T22:35:43
Thursday 18th April 2019
China delivered some more positive results in the last 24 hours, leading to questions about whether the fears of a pronounced economic slowdown have been overplaye...
Credit where credit is due from 2019-04-16T22:01:26
Wednesday 17th April 2019
The OECD suggests China’s stimulus measures may only offer short term benefits but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland discusses with Phil Dobbie, the markets are happy to...
US Bank Earnings Disappoint, But Mainly Quiet from 2019-04-15T22:35:02
Tuesday 16th April 2019
The week’s got off to a quiet start. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, stocks have taken a step back on weaker earnings figures from two major banks....
China numbers boosts risk appetite, but will it last? from 2019-04-14T22:40
Monday 15th April 2019
Last week finished on a positive note, sparked by a strong bounce back in credit growth in China, together with very strong export numbers. It saw money flow from th...
Near half century low for US jobless claims from 2019-04-11T21:59:50
Friday 12th April 2019
The US dollar was helped overnight with surprisingly low jobless claims numbers in the US. NAB’s’S Gavin Friend says it points to a tightening labour market, which s...
Black hole brighter than May’s future? from 2019-04-10T22:30:42
Thursday 11th April 2019
Right now Theresa May is meeting with the EU on emergency plans for Brexit. Phil Dobbie discusses how the day will unfold with NAB’s Ray Attrill. They also analys...
Caution ahead of a busy day from 2019-04-09T22:19:16
Wednesday 10th April 2019
The markets rarely react too much to forecasts from the IMF, so why this time, if indeed they have? That’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in ...
Weaker US dollar and equities as markets take stock from 2019-04-08T22:17:12
Tuesday 9th April 2019
It’s been a quiet 24 hours that has seen stocks lose some of their gains of last week but, as NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, that doesn’t signify a loss in confidence,...
Goldilocks and the Magic Money Tree from 2019-04-07T22:33:42
Monday 8th April 2019
The non-farm payrolls data on Friday seemed to indicate a Goldilocks economy – more jobs and with wages contained. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether thing...
Waiting on the payroll from 2019-04-04T21:27:58
Friday 5th April 2019
US payrolls data is out this evening (Australia time) and, unless something else is brewing, markets tend to tread water in anticipation. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explain...
A trio of optimism from 2019-04-03T20:56:19
Thursday 4th April 2019
There are three bits of news driving optimism in the markets. So says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, talking to Phil Dobbie in today’s edition of The Morning Call. First, ...
Markets calmer, Aussie takes a hit, Theresa reaches out from 2019-04-02T21:28:47
Wednesday 3rd April 2019
The markets are a lot calmer this morning after yesterday's rally in shares and sell-off of bonds. But, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, the Kiw...
Has the global slowdown bottomed out? Already? from 2019-04-01T21:00:35
Tuesday 2nd April 2019
There was continued optimism in the markets overnight with more strong data reads from China and the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this means t...
China data brings fresh hope from 2019-03-31T21:20:12
Monday 1st April 2019
China’s PMI numbers over the weekend were better than expected. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether this assumes a strong, risk-on mood for the first week o...
Brexit date determined today; US China trade talks could take months from 2019-03-28T19:56:19
Friday 29th March 2019
The UK Prime Minister will table her Withdrawal Agreement again tonight. Its acceptance, or otherwise, will determine the date of Brexit – which was to have been tod...
Bonds run hot; Sacrificial May from 2019-03-27T20:06:34
Thursday 28th March 2019
A risk off mood overnight saw moves to US Treasuries, with big falls in yields and falls in shares. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what’s driven sentiment...
Hope supports shares and the Aussie dollar from 2019-03-26T20:39:34
Wednesday 27th March 2019
The US stock market has rebounded in this session, which has also helped the Aussie dollar this morning. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the sudden change ...
Going Nowhere Fast from 2019-03-25T20:34:10
Tuesday 26th March 2019
The pound has suffered most of the major currencies as UK politicians seem to be arguing how to go forward on Brexit. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether ...
US recession talk and EU helps kick the can from 2019-03-24T20:36:12
Monday 25th March 2019
The yield curve for 3 month and 10 year US treasuries inverted for the first time since 2007. The markets seem a little spooked, with big falls in equities in the US...
May Day for UK hits Sterling a week out from Brexit from 2019-03-21T20:08:58
Friday 22nd March 2019
EU leaders met to discuss the possibility of an extension to the UK’s article 50. It’s conditional on Westminster accepting the Withdrawal Agreement that has twice b...
Fed loses its dots, EU issues a ransom note from 2019-03-20T20:32:35
Thursday 21st March 2019
The US Fed has revised its growth forecasts for this year and next, and removed all dot points for rate moves this year. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill abo...
China steps back; and the long and short of Brexit from 2019-03-19T20:35:37
Wednesday 20th march 2019
Media reports suggest China is playing hard ball in negotiations with the US. NAB’s Rodriog Catril suggest to Phil Dobbie that it’s just part of the negotiating p...
May May Have to Delay for Another Day from 2019-03-18T20:25:58
Tuesday 19th March 2019
The Speaker of the House in the Commons has blocked Theresa May from re-tabling her Brexit deal, meaning another answer needs to be found. As Phil Dobbie discusses ...
Holding out for the FOMC and for Brexit news from 2019-03-17T20:27:06
Monday 18th March 2019
It’s a slow start to the trading week with a day light on data, but the FOMC meeting on Thursday wil be one of the highlights. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis ...
Mayhem as May Manoeuvres For Her Deal from 2019-03-14T20:36:38
Friday 15th March 2019
Theresa May seems to be using every trick in the book to get her deal over the line. Her motion, to extend article 50 only if her deal is passed, was the only vote (...
Goodbye to a no-deal Brexit, ever from 2019-03-13T21:01:45
Thursday 14th March 2019
There have been three votes on a no-deal Brexit at Westminster. The surprising vote was the one that called for there to be no-deal at any time. Phil Dobbie talks ...
May Defeated, Boeing Grounded from 2019-03-12T20:35:06
Wednesday 13th March 2019
The UK Prime Minister has suffered another defeat (242 v 391), with her Brexit deal failing to pass through parliament. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s David de Gari...
Risk on as US retail sales bounce back and hopes of a Brexit breakthrough from 2019-03-11T20:33:41
Tuesday 12th March 2019
US stocks rose sharply in the overnight session following the release of US retail numbers, which showed a bounce back in January. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB...
NAB forecasts two rate cuts; Powell on Primetime from 2019-03-10T20:42:01
Monday 11th March 2019
NAB expects the RBA to cut interest rates twice this year. On this morning’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests there could be more to follow, but it obviously depen...
More cheap loans, lower forecasts, no rate rises – the ECB is worried from 2019-03-07T20:37:36
Friday 8th March 2019
Markets have reacted swiftly to the latest ECB meeting which has seen a significant downward move in inflation and growth forecasts, and an announcement that they wil...
Australia joins the downturn; Williams on the new normal; ECB considers its options from 2019-03-06T20:16:39
Thursday 7th March 2019
Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday surprised many, falling well below NAB’s expectations, which themselves were below market consensus. On today’s Morning Call Phil ...
Strong US ISM numbers, Trump targets India and is the RBA dreamin’? from 2019-03-05T20:36:51
Wednesday 6th March 2019
It’s been a strong 24 hours for data releases. As NAB’S Ray Attrill discusses with Phil Dobbie, the non-manufacturing ISM numbers rebounded in the US in February a...
Markets fizzle on false hope from 2019-03-04T20:14:27
Tuesday 5th March 2019
The markets in the US and Asia were buoyed by news that a deal between the US and China was close. The Wall Street Journal even put on a date on the signing ceremony...
US data is bad, but not Eurozone bad from 2019-03-03T20:33:43
Monday 4th March 2019
The US saw some poor economic data on Friday, including the ISM index hitting a two year low. Yet bond yields rose and so did equities. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril tells Phi...
Mixed data and high hopes for China and Brexit deals from 2019-02-28T20:34:20
Friday 1st March 2019
Trump’s walkout of the meeting with Kim Jong Un dominated the news media overnight, but has little interest to the markets. Instead, there’s more interest in the Chin...
EU doldrums, UK hope and China’s complications from 2019-02-27T20:26:16
Thursday 28th February 2019
The US trade representative Robert Lighthizer raised some concerns for the markets as he suggested that any trade deal would require significant structural chan...
Powell’s adjustments, May’s delays from 2019-02-26T20:19:25
Wednesday 27th February 2019
The pound was boosted by the promise that, if Theresa May’s revised deal doesn’t pass through parliament, then there could be a vote on delaying Brexit. But, a...
China deal close, another vote on Brexit? from 2019-02-25T20:29:43
Tuesday 26th February 2019
There’s been significant progress on the two stories that have hindered markets this year. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril it looks like the U...
Average inflation, deal hopes and a really big can kick for Brexit from 2019-02-24T20:35:59
Monday 25th February 2019
The markets were buoyed at the end of last week by hopes that some sort of trade deal with China was closer. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill tweet...
Coal blockade pushes Aussie down from 2019-02-21T20:31:47
Friday 22nd February 2019
Reports that China is blocking the import of Australian coal into its Dalian port have hit the Aussie dollar hard with no sign of recovery just yet. Phil Dobbie a...
Fed minutes, UK defections and Aussie jobs from 2019-02-20T20:44:59
Thursday 21st February 2019
In this morning’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill gives Phil Dobbie the early reaction to the FOMC minutes. Have they Fed clarified its position after an apparent U-t...
Fed thinking and trade talk pontificating from 2019-02-19T20:37:23
Wednesday 20th February 2019
The US dollar is a little weaker this morning as the deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods looms, with talks resuming in Washington today. Phil Dobbie asks ...
A bit of car trouble from 2019-02-18T20:03:12
Tuesday 19th February 2019
Markets are speculating whether President Trump will impose tariffs on car imports from Europe. That could be bad news for the struggling German economy but, as ...
No shutdown, just an emergency (and a holiday) from 2019-02-17T20:30:33
Monday 18th February 2019
US officials have been meeting the President at his Florida resort over the weekend to go over the trade talks with China, and it seems headway is being made. Phi...
Hours from the shutdown solution; US retail shock; May defeated from 2019-02-14T20:44:23
Friday 15th February 2019
It’s been a busy 24 hours. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, markets have been choppy on the back of surprisingly poor retail numbers from the U...
Kiwi spikes on less dovish RBNZ; Is Trump playing games on shutdown? from 2019-02-13T20:30:19
Thursday 14th February 2019
The NZ dollar jumped 1.7 percent yesterday after the RBNZ indicated they weren’t expected to change rates till 2021. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains the reaction. H...
Market optimism as deadlines pushed back from 2019-02-12T20:07:07
Wednesday 13th February 2019
It’s looking likely that the March 1st deadline for higher Chinese tariffs will be pushed back on the hope of progress on trade talks next month. There’s also ...